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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

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Gone very dark here in S W London,lots of instability,rain not far away,pleasant surprise.Could be an interesting evening.

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Something tells me I'm not going to have a good day, or get to sleep at my intended bed time... 😐

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25c here in Hawkinge. Very dark to the south and south east and several rumbles heard.

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It's in a situation like this, where we have a thundery breakdown approaching from the S/SW, I like to apply what I call, the "Cherbourg Rule". With steering winds appearing to be from the SSW, any ppn initiating east of the peninsula, tends to drift NNE up the Channel, towards the extreme east of Kent, S.N.Sea and the Benelux countries,. Any ppn initiating to the west of Cherbourg, if it holds together, generally has our name on it.

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https://en.meteox.com/en-gb?fc=0&lightning=1

As we can see, from the radar returns the thundery ppn, west of Cherbourg, certainly looks like affecting or south coast regions, fairly soon. The ppn that has formed east of Cherbourg, looks in general, to miss our region. But of course, other t/showers/storms, will no doubt form, as the air destabilises, ahead of the front heading towards us, from the west.

Just want to have a look at the performance, so far, of those models/agency, I posted this morning.

AROME: X Wrong. Obviously thundery ppn, is not going to stay exclusively over France, It's already wrong.

ARPEGE: Looks to be much nearer the mark at the moment, breaking out ppn, generally over the S.E. before it moves away from our region, towards midnight.

EURO4: Like ARPEGE, looks to be "on the button" but perhaps ppn a bit more widespread, than it was suggesting, before moving away, around midnight.

GFS: Looks a bit late with initiating ppn, and perhaps too far east, as well.

BBC/METEO GROUP: Like EURO4/ARPEGE, not far off the mark, so far.

Try applying the "Cherbourg Rule" yourselves, it's worked for me over many years of watching these thundery breakdowns, on radar.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

Edited by TomSE12

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Thanks @TomSE12, it's great having your knowledgable input in this thread, especially knowing you don't like thunder! 

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raining here in croydon, hopefully should cool the place down 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow raven said:

Thanks @TomSE12, it's great having your knowledgable input in this thread, especially knowing you don't like thunder! 

Thanks for your kind words Leeanne. Yes, it's a double-edged sword for me!! As I stated this morning, I feel I've "dodged a bullet", a bit this Summer but heat doesn't always equate to thunder!! You need a trigger and looks like it could about to be pulled, here in Lee, S.E.London, now raining!!

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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Rain n Dover but no thunder heard yet. Humidity rising.

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Certainly starting to feel a bit cooler in my non-airconditioned office - thank goodness!!

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On 05/08/2018 at 15:59, lassie23 said:

just in time to ruin my melons, i will post the photo of them in here later

Skies in Hastings currently: (looking SW)

4969C7C7-74F5-4E8F-8C65-690D79C878BA.jpeg

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Strange the difference of some reports to up here, blue skies and fair weather cloud bubbling up now. Whilst it is 31c again the moderate south westerly breeze is making it feel more comfortable.

Looking at the weather stations around here, tells it all with humidity around 30% up here, much higher further south. 

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Have had several moderate showers here now, but no evidence of them on the ground. It dries instantly, and is making the humidity feel yuk.

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Something big growing from France,heading this way,possibly

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I can report at least 3 drops of rain have fallen in Potters Bar in the last 10 minutes.

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10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Something big growing from France,heading this way,possibly

I heard its going to be a Kent Clipper... 

 

:( 

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11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Something big growing from France,heading this way,possibly

mutant baguette?🥖

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the rain is missing me.

go me.

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Clouds building here and the winds picking up, but the rain creeping up from the south west of us doesn’t look much more than drizzle. Still hoping we get some flashes n thuds later on.

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Looks to me like the lightning is staying over land in France, while the rain is moving this way, makes it look like it's moving due east, on lightning maps.

Edited by alexisj9

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4 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

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Yep but there is no lightning I  the rain apart from the horse shoe part. For now anyway.

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A flurry of activity in suburban gardens greeted the arrival of a few rain showers here, as residents used to 30 degrees and 'living outside' rushed to get garden furniture and kids toys into the dry. At 1.45 it was 80% blue sky and I was sitting enjoying my newly refurbished patio over a cup of coffee; half an hour later, it was full grey followed by rain drops and a lone rumble of thunder giving it its best shot. As usual I dragged son outside to smell the lovely air and enjoy the cool feel of the rain, while indoors it remained resolutely at 28 degrees. It is super-humid indoors now; I do hope the storms for later initiate on the correct side of the Cherbourg peninsula as per @TomSE12 guidance to give all of those that want one a great storm (sorry Tom, hope they diverge either side of you!). 

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