SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

[stainesbloke]

9 minutes ago, shotski said:

Depends what you regard as warm weather ? The forecast even for later this week is for temperatures between 20-25 with plenty of sun around. Surely that’s warm enough weather to get out and enjoy ? Funnily enough I coach an under 8’s football team and we’ve just had an email from the league saying that the season may have to be put back as most of the pitches are hard & cracked and dangerous to play on. Not all out door activities are benefited by the abnormaly hot & dry conditions. Obviously same can be said for water logged pitch or frozen, I get that !

Imho, 23-25C is very pleasant, if sunny and not windy. I had no idea children play football in August, thought that was a winter thing. Must be difficult playing on such hard and dry surfaces? Could your pitches be watered, or is there no facility for that? 

[shotski]

14 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Imho, 23-25C is very pleasant, if sunny and not windy. I had no idea children play football in August, thought that was a winter thing. Must be difficult playing on such hard and dry surfaces? Could your pitches be watered, or is there no facility for that? 

The youngest kids start early as we don’t play December and most of Jan as it can get too cold for the small ones. I don’t think watering pitches would be viable with over 400 teams in our league over all the age groups. 

[shotski]

22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm nae sure, c00ps. But it's certainly up there with the best. And, given that May was so good, should September turn out be an extension of Summer, then, yes, I think 2018 has every chance of surpassing 1976...?

What about 1906 Ed ? 

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Ben Lewis said:

Let’s hope so... according to BBC it’s back to Atlantic gunk full pelt come Saturday with unusually high winds & rain sweeping across country. 

The next moans will be “my flowers are destroyed” 

All mine have gone past it now anyway, time to cut down ready for next year.

[stainesbloke]

27 minutes ago, shotski said:

The youngest kids start early as we don’t play December and most of Jan as it can get too cold for the small ones. I don’t think watering pitches would be viable with over 400 teams in our league over all the age groups. 

Does putting the season back affect your wages? Should get a rainfall or two over our region this weekend, hopefully that’ll improve the pitch condition for your under 8’s.

This summer has been just perfect for all the outdoor activities I love. It’ll all be over soon and the usual cloud, wind and rain will be back. It may be another couple of decades until we see a summer like this, I’m glad that I’ve made the most of it.

Edited August 6, 2018 by stainesbloke

[Soaring Hawk]

1 hour ago, c00ps said:

Does this summer surpass 1976 for sunny warm weather in your experience? 

Absolutely it has!   In 1976 I was living in Vancouver in beautiful British Columbia. It was claimed at the time that we’d had the wettest summer for 100 years. (Haven’t searched for verification of that, although I remember it seemed to rain all the time that summer).  

I would receive photos of UK based friends and family looking remarkably brown and healthy and even some of water queues at standpipes 

The water shortage was particularly shocking because we didn’t get much news about Blighty, so to see people I went to school with holding large pots and pans out in their streets really stunned me. The photos appeared surreal on on sorts of levels and definitely not the green England I remembered, with the washed out yellow landscape more akin to Malta, where we lived shortly before moving to Canada.  

This summer is the first time I’ve been able to get a sense of what the famous 1976 may have been like.  

Currently 28C in my bedroom - it’s definitely felt hotter than yesterday here, with max of 33C recorded in my garden. 

Longing, fantasy dreaming type longing for Wednesday and a few days of chilly but oh so comfortable low to mid 20’s. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

GFS 18z, looking more like a Kent/E.Anglia clipper now, for any thundery-type ppn, tomorrow PM, Weds AM. 

Regards,

Tom.

[lassie23]

14 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Looks in great shape mate! Fair play to ya.

You need three months of constant heat just to get it to the size of a tennis ball lol

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Very hard to make any kind of judgement on tonight.. Could be all of us in the South East, or just the very far Eastern regions..

Usually I would be posting up my take on it, but not one model is the same currently so going to wait for 12z later on and 06z and see

But think radar and SAT will be the key today 

[Katrine Basso]

The Met Office precipitation risk has been going up and then several hours late it does down like it has this morning where last night risk of substantial rain from 70% has gone down to 40% for South Ockendon's forecasted rain and will only then be very light rain.  The risk of a thunderstorm has completely gone. Now the Met Office now says that it will be Thursday that will have more chance of light rain.

[Wimbledon88]

6 hours ago, lassie23 said:

You need three months of constant heat just to get it to the size of a tennis ball lol

Ooh now that I have zoomed in on it it is rather small isn't it!  

Still,small things are often the juiciest.

My spuds are small this year but probably the tastiest I ve had in 4 y ears!

Looks like final blast of heat today for some time.....

[Tom Quintavalle]

Here are the 00z model runs views on tonight's potential thundery ppn, as fronts and fresher air, advance towards us from the west.

AROME

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php?ech=18&mode=1&map=0

Having none of it and keeps any thundery ppn, well to our south and east Goes on to develop, what looks to be an impressive MCS, around the Paris area, which trundles off to the Belgian/German border.

ARPEGE

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?&ech=21&mode=2

Much more enthusiastic about developing some thundery ppn, for our region, before it moves off out into the S. North Sea, after midnight.

EURO4

Suggesting, only E.Sussex and Kent receiving any appreciable ppn.

GFS

This, a little later but develops the faintest of, Kent clippers.

BBC/METEO GROUP

Tonight

This evening, in to tonight, there is the chance of some heavy, thundery showers spreading their way north. Any showers will clear later on though, leaving behind some fresher conditions.

Looking at the graphics, on the BBC's/Meteo Group charts, they bore quite a similarity to the EURO4, take on tonight.

If any thundery ppn does form, it looks very likely to be the east of the region, that's at threat.

But as Luke(Surrey), suggested above, very much a cases of radar watching!!

 

What has struck me about this Summer is, that people wrongly equate heat to thunder. I suppose, we've all grown up with the oft-quoted mantra, "three fine days and a thunderstorm". Well we've had many fine days, leading to no thunderstorms!! Whilst out shopping, on "blisteringly" hot Sunday, I gazed up at the sky ( as one does) and noticed some very fine, wispy cirrus, trying to form but it just disintegrated in front of my eyes. The moisture, being squeezed out of it, as I stared up!! 

I'm half Italian and the weather this Summer has reminded of what occurs on the Italian Peninsula, during "high" Summer. Not that many storms occur actually, the air being too hot and dry, suffocated by omnipresent areas of high pressure. They do experience storms, of course, some severe as well!! These especially occur, due to converging sea-breezes, where this air from the Med. meets air from the Adriatic and is forced to lift over the Apennines (the mountain chain, that runs down the sine of Italy). These storms can be severe and mainly electrical, over the mountains. 

Italy's main thunder threat occurs during the transition from Summer to Autumn, when cool, moist air, finally enters the Med. basin. I've seen some real "humdingers" there in Sept/Oct.

 

Good luck to all you Brontophiles, this Brontophobe won't be cheering any storms on, though!! But I will be cheering on the fresher air behind, this front. 

 

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

 

Edited August 7, 2018 by TomSE12

[Blazerblue]

Fine mist over the fields this morning, which has quickly burnt off. Hoping for a cracking storm this evening making way for the fresher air.

Lots to do in the garden over the next few days, mainly laying artificial grass to cover what is a weed/mud square, I tried to keep some grass for the dogs business but this heat has killed what little there was, as according to my neighbours the garden has never been used as a garden by previous tenants, when I moved in it was overgrown with ivy which was up the bungalow walls. Having killed and cleared all that, there is just weeds left. I’ve planted all around the borders, now just the muck left to cover. It maybe artificial but it’s green and clean and keeps the mud away from paws, thus saving my carpets. 

[Kent Blizzard]

17 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

Fine mist over the fields this morning, which has quickly burnt off. Hoping for a cracking storm this evening making way for the fresher air.

Lots to do in the garden over the next few days, mainly laying artificial grass to cover what is a weed/mud square, I tried to keep some grass for the dogs business but this heat has killed what little there was, as according to my neighbours the garden has never been used as a garden by previous tenants, when I moved in it was overgrown with ivy which was up the bungalow walls. Having killed and cleared all that, there is just weeds left. I’ve planted all around the borders, now just the muck left to cover. It maybe artificial but it’s green and clean and keeps the mud away from paws, thus saving my carpets. 

I'm tempted to put artificial grass in our garden, are you using a timber frame and weed control fabric then filling with sharp sand before laying yours? I've read different methods and tips, some using social underlay instead of the sand.

[Katrine Basso]

I am so excited now as there is a Met Office yellow warning for a Thunderstorm for Thurrock.  I hope it will pay off and that there will be plenty of rain, thunder and lightning.

[Blazerblue]

42 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

I'm tempted to put artificial grass in our garden, are you using a timber frame and weed control fabric then filling with sharp sand before laying yours? I've read different methods and tips, some using social underlay instead of the sand.

No frame, but weed control under the grass or the weeds grow through as I discovered on another part already covered in artificial that I had to pull up and start again. It’s relatively flat so haven’t done any sand although I read people do use sand. 30mm artificial grass lays well, then used metal pegs around the edges to hold it down, although it doesn’t really need them, take some breeze to lift large pieces. Bought mine on amazon, cut to size so not much fuss laying it, just heavy in large pieces. It’s clean, green and I’ve even hoovered the part already done when it was covered in hundreds of little leaves   was easy to sweep snow off when we had all that back in winter too.

Edited August 7, 2018 by Blazerblue

[Norfolk Sheep]

I can barely keep up with some of the produce this year, the main freezer is bulging already! Surprisingly only just reached 21C here, rather chilly tbh....

[stainesbloke]

Last of the hot days today. Already 26C here. Looks like any thunderstorms will be Kent Clippers tonight, and E Sussex if lucky. Hopefully that’s wrong and we’ll all see some storms. The next week or so looks distinctly cooler, temperatures barely scraping average, some showers too. 

[warrenb]

10:46 and already 28c here. Looking forward to the cooler weather.

[Dami]

Cooler weather is coming.

storms not so.

[Uxbridge90]

It will be a shame to see the heat go, whilst it's a bit of a pain when working or trying to get to sleep, I do miss it when we end up with days upon days of greyness and cloud. I'm slightly confused as to why there seems to be so many people on the forum arguing about the weather, very odd, worse in the winter/snow mind.

Looks like there's a fair bit of uncertainty as to how widespread the storms will be tonight, looks like the further East you are of the region the more chance you have. 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

42 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Last of the hot days today. Already 26C here. Looks like any thunderstorms will be Kent Clippers tonight, and E Sussex if lucky. Hopefully that’s wrong and we’ll all see some storms. The next week or so looks distinctly cooler, temperatures barely scraping average, some showers too. 

Actually don't think it will be that bad, looks like 25c and sunny tomorrow then average.. Met Office even mention weekend feeling warm and humid once more 

[Katrine Basso]

There is quite a bit of uncertainty  in the Met Office for South Ockendon and other areas in Thurrock whether we will be getting rain or not. In the past 24 hours they have adjusted the likelihood of rain several times and probably be adjusting right up to the late afternoon to early evening. 

[Coopsy]

2 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

I am so excited now as there is a Met Office yellow warning for a Thunderstorm for Thurrock.  I hope it will pay off and that there will be plenty of rain, thunder and lightning.

I said to keep the faith  thought that might happen

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Actually don't think it will be that bad, looks like 25c and sunny tomorrow then average.. Met Office even mention weekend feeling warm and humid once more 

Indeed Luke...despite the popular misconception, there is a third type of UK weather: not wall-to-wall sunshine and 30+ temps, and not endless days' grey with drizzle...?

What's wrong with the good old British three-fine-days-and-a-thunderstorm scenario: some rain, some sun and temps maxing out between, say, 19 and 25C?