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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

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Met office WELL of the mark these graphics are never to be taken literally but should give more "risk area"

1389499195_rain5.thumb.png.9d603afd925612766a40904cc8987f5b.png

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Last radar echo has a distinct arc - could see a shelf cloud today !

Yes the first batch do.. Very Northward movement to them riding the front as the warm air and cooler air get ever more squeezed 

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Agreed, 2018 has delivered the goods so far. Snow, plumes, storms, serious heat. Classic stuff. Just no hurricane's please in autumn.

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Distant thunder heard from near Brighton.Sky looking like this.

 

20180727_132614.jpg

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25 minutes ago, Jason H said:

Yesterday was unbelievably hot and humid. It doesn't feel as oppressive today though. Just perfect!

I agree - just went out and it was actually nice. It's unusual to feel hot and not sticky in the UK but today seems to have managed that.

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It's much worse here than yesterday, humidity is higher as are the temps :(

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2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

It's much worse here than yesterday, humidity is higher as are the temps :(

cant give my view on this as constant 24 degree's in the air con

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34.3c at the moment and wall to wall sunshine. Satisfied that’s an accurate temperature too as my Davis Vantage Pro 2 has the added FARS. I’m also in the sweet spot for heat today. 

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3 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

34.3c at the moment and wall to wall sunshine. Satisfied that’s an accurate temperature too as my Davis Vantage Pro 2 has the added FARS. I’m also in the sweet spot for heat today. 

33.4 at the Beccles weather station - the hottest day I've experienced since about 1984!

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What I tend to do now we can see activity start to fire is compare the most recent model data to the radar...

as off 1:30pm

radar.thumb.jpg.50685111bffa9365ea40e352fdc43594.jpg

 

If its a 3 hourly model im using 12pm then 3pm on HOURLY models im using 1-2pm

Precipitation EURO4 Fr 27.07.2018 12 GMT Precipitation EURO4 Fr 27.07.2018 15 GMT

 

EURO4 okay not a bad guess given that this is convective weather we are talking about but seems a little to far EAST on the model

Its handle on the PPN over the South west and wales is ... Well quite poor

AROME

preciprate_007.jpg?2018072706preciprate_008.jpg?2018072706

Bin?

HIRLAM

overview_007.jpg?2018072706overview_008.jpg?2018072706

Okay okay...

ICON

overview_006.jpg?2018072706 overview_009.jpg?2018072706

 

BIN

 

Now the last one and most interesting.. The ARPEGE has backed West..

overview_006.jpg?2018072706overview_009.jpg?2018072706

Remember on the 3 hourly models we are still talking 1 1/2 hours away from now on the second imagine 

 

Place your votes... and we can run through that model on highest vote..

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9 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

Met Office Amber warning now in force for Heavy Thunderstorms!!!!

Amber warnings for thunderstorms are a bit of a rare occurrence.  

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32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Last radar echo has a distinct arc - could see a shelf cloud today !

What’s a shelf cloud ?

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5 minutes ago, southbank said:

What’s a shelf cloud ?

One you can get from IKEA?:oops:

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5 minutes ago, saint said:

Amber warnings for thunderstorms are a bit of a rare occurrence.  

The first ever issued 😉

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Really hoping for a storm. Anything like the one in July 2015 (was a Friday also) would be great! That went on for about five hours. The best storm I've ever experienced :)

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3 minutes ago, RobR said:

The first ever issued 😉

Indeed. Before April this year it would have been an amber warning for heavy rain with frequent lightning, possibly combined with a warning for wind haha. Not sure why the MetO never had a warning category for thunderstorms. Does anyone know?

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31 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Cloud has increased here , still toastie though

Gone cloudy here too temp stuck at 31c, not as hot as yesterday.

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Hi everyone! Excited for some storm potential here in sunny Thurrock 🤞🏻This is a photo I took back in 2015, that I think was a shelf cloud, and that was an amazing storm, very memorable 😀

CA627234-CEA9-4D9D-8C78-C383756A09FA.jpeg

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My lawn is longing for some rain. Trees now starting to drop leaves too. Nearly 2 months with no rain hopefully coming to a spectacular end today! 

8C9DF794-8292-473D-854C-EE49C631ECF2.jpeg

0D471157-3B29-480F-B7C0-02843D50D46C.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, MrsB28 said:

Hi everyone! Excited for some storm potential here in sunny Thurrock 🤞🏻This is a photo I took back in 2015, that I think was a shelf cloud, and that was an amazing storm, very memorable 😀

CA627234-CEA9-4D9D-8C78-C383756A09FA.jpeg

Was that about July time also? Think it was a Friday Night if my memory serves me right? It was one hell of a storm and the build up prior to it the way the cloud rolled in was amazing, was yellow

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Any storms near here are going to pass by quite close


Distant thunder heard from Brighton, apparently! 

 

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22 minutes ago, mishy said:

Really hoping for a storm. Anything like the one in July 2015 (was a Friday also) would be great! That went on for about five hours. The best storm I've ever experienced :)

 

11 minutes ago, MrsB28 said:

Hi everyone! Excited for some storm potential here in sunny Thurrock 🤞🏻This is a photo I took back in 2015, that I think was a shelf cloud, and that was an amazing storm, very memorable 😀

CA627234-CEA9-4D9D-8C78-C383756A09FA.jpeg

 

1 minute ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Was that about July time also? Think it was a Friday Night if my memory serves me right? It was one hell of a storm and the build up prior to it the way the cloud rolled in was amazing, was yellow

 

Think that's the one. It was mental.  Constant thunder and lightining for ages and some of the heaviest rain I've ever seen. Crazy lol.

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