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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

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i couldn't care less about any July records, had enough of this heat now, just bring me rain 😆😔 i'll even dance under the falling rain in just a pair of shorts, I'll even cover up the camel I shipped over from Egypt a week ago to get me backwards and forwards from work in this Sahara type climate we now find ourselves in 💦

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think the sun has got to my weather station, it says 39.9c😵

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17 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Yep loads and loads and loads of it 

I’ve seen a lot of acas and small towers appearing and disappearing this morning. Think proper convection will start around about 3pm.

There was talk of a lull in activity around midday.

...or was that May? 😄

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For two days the Met Office said that there was no weather warnings for South Ockendon but this morning that has been upgraded to a Yellow Thunderstorm warning.  The livelihood of whether we will have rain or not has been changing every few hours from 90% down to 30% and up again to 70% and down again to 60%.

If it rains, I will go out in my back garden in swimming costume and sing the "singing in the rain song" but without my umbrella.

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1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Lol! In these kind of setups like today I've never ever once been on the right side it's always been the extreme east I've seen this so many times.. 

The extreme east? Oh how I wish.....

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26c at Heathrow and 28c at London City Airport at the moment, showing how the hottest air is further east, even across London.

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7 minutes ago, mrjolly said:

The Met office have just updated their weather warning to include most of the southeast now for storms:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-07-27

Good grief, they've actually finally included Norfolk and Suffolk. It's a miracle! I was beginning to wonder whether we actually existed 🙄

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1 hour ago, Surrey said:

I think after today and the weekend if we don't see much rain Sunday we will likely be one of the driest places in the UK 

It often is. Rain seems to dodge here, unless it’s useless drizzle lol

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MetO says 26 for my nearest station although that seems a lot cooler than it feels and temp in my garden reading at 29c. No rain unfortunately from last night’s anticipated stormy weather. Now day 62 without rain and May 26 only gave a smattering enough to dampen conservatory roof. Last significant rain shower was early May. 

Chatting to local farmer early this morning when out with my dog; he’s really stressed and said his water levels for livestock are now “dangerously low” and his winter feed has taken a big hit because there is no grass. 

Please rain 🌧 

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Metoffice have tweeted about the record potentially going again in the last 15 mins it seems they still think it is on .

https://mobile.twitter.com/metoffice/status/1022773081838952448

also earlier the bbc released a story saying the record will not go because of the Storms coming early but it seems the Met office have been on the dog and bone to the bbc and the story has changed although only the July record potentially being challenged according to the Beeb article.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44976591

 

Edited by Mark wheeler

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2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Hi Chris. Estofex on board this morning with near identical 'warning areas'. The big difference between them and Convective Weather is the 'percentage probability' of a storm occurring in a geographical area. Convective Weather more bullish. For a large chunk of our Region the maps show:

Estofex (Red Level 2): 15% chance of occurrence within 40 kms.
Convective Weather (Yellow Medium): 45% chance of occurrence within 25 miles.

1890581669_Estofex27July2918.thumb.jpg.4b8005a0e99a4a25704d6743b47aacf4.jpg1476226504_ConvectiveOutlookFri27July.thumb.jpg.95a5761c3e2ef321a5079477dcbb60e7.jpg

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-27

Checking the Met Office video forecast, it's describing the situation later today as a "scattering of pretty severe thunderstorms".

Looks like an evening of radar watching coming up - I love it! :)

For once, Malcolm, our side ofthe region might be where most of the action takes place.

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1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Metoffice have tweeted about the record potentially going again in the last 15 mins it seems they still think it is on .

https://mobile.twitter.com/metoffice/status/1022773081838952448

Unsurprising as it was already 28C at Norwich at 10am. I reckon somewhere between Thetford, Diss, Norwich, Dereham will reach 37 or 38C today. Currently 28C here at the moment.

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2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Unsurprising as it was already 28C at Norwich at 10am. I reckon somewhere between Thetford, Diss, Norwich, Dereham will reach 37 or 38C today. Currently 28C here at the moment.

That's me roasted, then!

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7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Current temps don’t seem high enough to me, although I could be wrong.

30c before 11am? 

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The accumulative effect of days of heat in our block of flats (which is surrounded by an arterial A road/car park and other buildings on 3 sides which seem to obsorb so much heat) means it's heated up inside the flat and stayed hot. It's 30.c inside now and only dipped to 28.5c overnight. I'm looking forward to sleeping in the bed rather than on it.

I've zoomed in and the edge of the warning line for storms is literally overhead...so I don't know whether to get excited or not.

Been surprisingly ok in this latest heatwave, I think the trick is to do things more slowly and drink a third more water than you normally do.

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10 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Unsurprising as it was already 28C at Norwich at 10am. I reckon somewhere between Thetford, Diss, Norwich, Dereham will reach 37 or 38C today. Currently 28C here at the moment.

Yep exactly in the location I posted last night with the highest Thickness *

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Well I think we can definitely conclude that the BBC max of 29c in London will be too conservative.

 

EDIT: The BBC app actually shows 31c for London now but they were forecasting 29c on the TV forecasts.

Edited by danm

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The all time record could go providing storms don't start developing until later in the afternoon. If we start to see things bubbling up sooner than expected then that could put a spanner in the works. 

Certainly the July record could be broken, again.

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The temperature now is 26 °C and I think the wind speeds and the risk of significant precipitation will be a rough estimate.  It will only be more like a nowcast to find if there will be light or moderate rain fall and along with the wind speed will either be increased or decreased later on in the day.  Hopefully it will be increased.

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The Met Office has the maximum temperature for Thurrock to be 30 °C .

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Think it's going to be very touch and go as far as storms go for my area. Predictions keep changing by the hour. BBC had us for storms all evening, then just at 4, then again all evening and now back to just 4pm.

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1 minute ago, Lauren said:

Think it's going to be very touch and go as far as storms go for my area. Predictions keep changing by the hour. BBC had us for storms all evening, then just at 4, then again all evening and now back to just 4pm.

Latest models have us on the edge of an area of storms moving up from France - East Kent definitely more favourable for us down here

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