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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

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4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

A bit of mid level cloud. Plenty of gaps in it and it’s moving through anyway.

The cloud radar shows a steady stream of cloud moving south to north from the channel right through London  - be interesting to see if it does move through quickly/break up or continue/build up

Edited by c00ps

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According to the local weather station (via NW's homepage) it's now 27.5C! 

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Thought I would post this in the convective thread but there is so much going on in the next 48 hours I thought best stick to regional thread..

The first interest for some actual cross model agreement on storms and rain for our region starting later tonight and early tomorrow morning.. 

Firstly some storms breaking out in the far north and north east of the region today and this afternoon... 

preciprate_015.jpg?2018072600nmmuk-1-15-0.png?26-07nmmuk-1-17-0.png?26-07 Netweather NMM Image

Then later on this evening and over night some more organised storms COULD break out... MOST models now agree on something its just the time at which things kick off is different

But midnight on wards looks about right so could be quite a loud early morning for a few of us in the western parts of the region.. 

Firstly Arome

preciprate_024.jpg?2018072600 preciprate_026.jpg?2018072600 preciprate_028.jpg?2018072600preciprate_030.jpg?2018072600

ARPEGE

overview_021.jpg?2018072600overview_024.jpg?2018072600overview_027.jpg?2018072600

EURO4

Precipitation EURO4 Th 26.07.2018 21 GMTPrecipitation EURO4 Fr 27.07.2018 00 GMTPrecipitation EURO4 Fr 27.07.2018 03 GMT

 

Net weather model

Netweather NMM ImageNetweather NMM ImageNetweather NMM ImageNetweather NMM ImageNetweather NMM ImageNetweather NMM Image

NMM

nmmuk-1-23-0.png?26-07nmmuk-1-25-0.png?26-07nmmuk-1-63-0.png?26-08nmmuk-1-29-0.png?26-07

 

Other factors..MUCAPE Even at 4am there is some very nice values there.. 

nmmuk-28-16-0.png?26-07 nmmuk-28-18-0.png?26-07nmmuk-28-20-0.png?26-07nmmuk-28-22-0.png?26-07nmmuk-28-24-0.png?26-07nmmuk-28-26-0.png?26-07

 

Look at the night time temperatures tonight as well..

Netweather NMM ImageTemperature Low (2m) EURO4 Fr 27.07.2018 00 GMTnmmuk-0-22-0.png?26-07

 

 

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Yup it’s pretty much over cast here in Surrey amazing temps nonetheless 27.3 c for10.30 in cloud looks like far Far East Kent will be the place to be today 

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7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Look at the night time temperatures tonight as well..

Netweather NMM ImageTemperature Low (2m) EURO4 Fr 27.07.2018 00 GMTnmmuk-0-22-0.png?26-07

 

 

That's some impressive minimum temps there - the record could go based on those.

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Thank you for putting all of that together @Surrey

We are off to Bournemouth (Sandbanks) this afternoon for an overnight stay. Looks like there could be some heavy rain if those charts are anywhere near correct, but just outside the zone for thunder storms. I am hoping the heavy stuff makes it to the greater London area and more widely over the south east, we SO need some wet ground and a cool down for a while.

 

 

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29C here (according to my phone) at 11am, so 34/35C definitely possible? 

Medway

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23 minutes ago, interested & confused said:

My local weather station in Willesborough says it's 32C now - I was pottering in the garden, but getting too hot for me now 😯

Kennington Metoffice WOW station now just shy of 33 at 32.9 :)

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Yeah over 30c here now.. WOW thats mad!

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1 hour ago, Badgers01 said:

Yup it’s pretty much over cast here in Surrey amazing temps nonetheless 27.3 c for10.30 in cloud looks like far Far East Kent will be the place to be today 

This mid-level cloud has plagued us all week. Just made it disgustingly humid rather than hot...

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

According to the local weather station (via NW's homepage) it's now 27.5C! 

My preferred local amateur station on Wunderground is showing 28C with a heat index of 30C.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

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11 minutes ago, Mac_SE said:

This mid-level cloud has plagued us all week. Just made it disgustingly humid rather than hot...

It’s true now in Brighton and its dazzling blue skies and seas car read 34c on A23

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2 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

It’s true now in Brighton and its dazzling blue skies and seas car read 34c on A23

That's what a true heatwave is for me: clear blue skies and hot sun just as it was in '76.

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31.4 here in Gravesend and climbing - will definitely beat the hottest day of the year so far (32).

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Just looking at Heathrow today, it's been going up by about 1.8*C an hour since sunrise.  It's currently 31.8*C so I am predicting about 36.5*C at max diurnal.  Is that highly reasonable that 36.5-37.5*C is the maxima today?

Edited by Robbie Garrett

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Quite conceivable that the July record of 36.7c set at Heathrow in 2015 could be beaten today. 

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Glad I'm heading to Blackpool for a week on Saturday just to get a break from this heat 

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2 minutes ago, danm said:

Quite conceivable that the July record of 36.7c set at Heathrow in 2015 could be beaten today. 

 

2 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Just looking at Heathrow today, it's been going up by about 1.8*C an hour since sunrise.  It's currently 31.8*C so I am predicting about 36.5*C at max diurnal.  Is that highly reasonable that 36.5-37.5*C is the maxima today?

Yeah I'd say so.

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Oh how I wish a large MCS would plow straight through the SE tonight...

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My nearest weather station at shoreham has been stuck on 25C for hours now! 

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14 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Oh how I wish a large MCS would plow straight through the SE tonight...

It would be a dream. 

Not happenin' though is it! 

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Currently catfishing in Ashford and I'm about ready to jump in the lake with them it's that hot 

 

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