SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

[Ellozee]

Clear skies here in East Kent, not a cloud, which bodes well for any necessary warming precluding storms.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Good to see storms, shame they missed here nevermind.. 62 days no rain lol! 

[seb]

Clear skies in Singleton. 23.5 degrees at 7am, up from a “low” of 21.9 around 5am. 73% humidity.

Looks like we are well to the east of the zone with lowered temps due to cloud and storms so here’s to another exceptionally hot day followed by some amazing storms hopefully! MetO precip forecast has a big cell going over central and east Kent early evening. Fingers crossed!

 

[Djdazzle]

Caught the edge of a storm earlier, rained for all of 10 mins. Still some rumbling to the west but the sun is out now and it feels like a sauna.

The line of storms in Essex seems to be dissipating with much clearer conditions heading from the south.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Djdazzle

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Looking at the high RES this morning even later doesn't look that great any more. 

In spectacular fashion every model I posted yesterday with storms further west last night has corrected east 

A lot of cloud also starting to bubble up and move north/northeast. 

I don't think we will get up to the temperatures we were forcast unfortunately to much high level stuff spilling in... Maybe far reaches of East Kent 

[Dan the Man]

So I’m flying into LTN this evening around 2030 - how’s it looking? From here it’s looking pretty turbulent to say the least! 

[exodus]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Looking at the high RES this morning even later doesn't look that great any more. 

In spectacular fashion every model I posted yesterday with storms further west last night has corrected east 

A lot of cloud also starting to bubble up and move north/northeast. 

I don't think we will get up to the temperatures we were forcast unfortunately to much high level stuff spilling in... Maybe far reaches of East Kent 

Where abouts is looking favourable for storms today do you think?

[seb]

4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Looking at the high RES this morning even later doesn't look that great any more. 

In spectacular fashion every model I posted yesterday with storms further west last night has corrected east 

A lot of cloud also starting to bubble up and move north/northeast. 

I don't think we will get up to the temperatures we were forcast unfortunately to much high level stuff spilling in... Maybe far reaches of East Kent 

Was only ever meant to happen in the Far East. Straight line up from Rye through Kent, Essex into EA. West of that hot but not exceptional.

MetO text forecast in line with that. East of SE region 37 degrees.

Mainly dry, very warm and sunny to start, chance of the odd thundery shower early morning. Becoming very hot in the east later with an increasing risk of thunderstorms here. Remaining dry and bright, and less hot in the west. Maximum temperature 37 °C.

[Mark wheeler]

Morning, quite an uncomfortable nights sleep and now have woken to no water supply .

Great timing Thames Water  

Edited July 27, 2018 by Mark wheeler

[Cableguy]

Hot spell going out with a whimper here, would of been nice to go out with a bang but not to be, just wanted a bit of rain to be honest!

 

[Uxbridge90]

Looks like another hot sticky day lined up before a cooler weekend. Must be going on two months without rain now! Can't see any storms over my way but looks good to the north and east of the region.

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8 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Looks like another hot sticky day lined up before a cooler weekend. Must be going on two months without rain now! Can't see any storms over my way but looks good to the north and east of the region.

62 days here no rain... 

And Sundays rain looks like nothing but a dribble.. 

If it doesn't rain much over the next few days we will be f*

[seb]

Temps well ahead compared to this time yesterday. 25.7 at 7:40am. Wow.

 

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

62 days here no rain... 

And Sundays rain looks like nothing but a dribble.. 

If it doesn't rain much over the next few days we will be f*

I’m just counting down to 10am tomo when the news will be full of photos and talk of the dramatic rain and thunderstorms which our area simply won’t see.

It happens time and time again.

Maybe you should move to Lincs (and change your name?)

[Mark wheeler]

So the Beeb now going for 34c today , that’s quite a change from there predictions last night , the latest Metoffice update at 4:30 this morning still punting for 37c in East Anglia .

[seaside 60]

I really dont think anyone will miss out on the rain tonight. I would be very surprised.

They may not get a full display of Rollings Stones quality in light and noise, but rain for all in some way.

[Blessed Weather]

9 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Strangely, ESTOFEX has nothing.

Hi Chris. Estofex on board this morning with near identical 'warning areas'. The big difference between them and Convective Weather is the 'percentage probability' of a storm occurring in a geographical area. Convective Weather more bullish. For a large chunk of our Region the maps show:

Estofex (Red Level 2): 15% chance of occurrence within 40 kms.
Convective Weather (Yellow Medium): 45% chance of occurrence within 25 miles.

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-27

Checking the Met Office video forecast, it's describing the situation later today as a "scattering of pretty severe thunderstorms".

Looks like an evening of radar watching coming up - I love it! 

[Blazerblue]

Is there any chance of some rain/storm over Suffolk way today? I can see the line way west of us! We need some relief from this horrendous heat, or are we going to keep suffering, as the met and Beeb still going for 27c here tomorrow, which isn’t cooler and fresher as far as I’m concerned! Please let us have some cooler air 

[stainesbloke]

Very warm night here, didn’t drop below 20C. Sunny this morning and calm. Will be gutted if this heat ends with no storms, but I wouldn’t rule out a few surprises later with the temperatures hitting the mid-high 30’s. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Okay guys and girls.. 

Its the "big day" or not so for many of us.. 

It really now only looks like a "pot luck" risk.. Yesterday looked a loot better in terms of storms than what is now showing.. But this is usually the case were last minute backtracks and changes make massive diffrences..

The EURO4 dropped last nights storms on the 12z only to bring them back in style on the 18z and then got them absolutey spot on on the 00z.. 

So EURO4

 

 

Pretty uninspiring for our region apart from Norfolk, Norwich where we do have the greatest risk... 

AROME

Again did exactly what the EURO4 did last night .. Looks okay for a wider area but by 10pm its all over..

Throwing the rest out because they are so wrong this morning unless later runs change.. 

Heat..

 

Im picking 3PM charts..

EURO4 says 34c

 

ARPEGE also says 34c

NMM brief 35c more 34c

 

Be intresting to see what acutally happens tonight with everything MUCH further East than forcast last night Im worried that it might all get to far east and only the very extreme east catches a storm

 

Most high res models showed some spectacular storms moving North out of France to affect Kent but that idea has now been dropped apart from the HIRLAM but its performed so badly over the last 24 hours 

 

[mawkin75]

Hello. Been watching this forum for ages so thought i would interact.

Part cloudy here in Norwich and 26.4c. It feels really humid here this morning.

[Lauren]

Wow! Level 2s for the UK!

Hopefully will be back from work on time to see it all kick off. We missed out on rain here last night, whereas the town just over from me got some.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

41 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’m just counting down to 10am tomo when the news will be full of photos and talk of the dramatic rain and thunderstorms which our area simply won’t see.

It happens time and time again.

Maybe you should move to Lincs (and change your name?)

Lol! In these kind of setups like today I've never ever once been on the right side it's always been the extreme east I've seen this so many times.. 

[Cableguy]

Surrey desert to remain intact

 

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1 minute ago, Cableguy said:

Surrey desert to remain intact

 

I think after today and the weekend if we don't see much rain Sunday we will likely be one of the driest places in the UK