SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

[Neilsouth]

I'm going Metal Detecting on Friday Morning in Kent, does anyone have a predicted radar for tomorrow, what time is it supposed to arrive?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Go to bed Arepge yo drunk.. 

[lassie23]

23 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Go to bed Arepge yo drunk.. 

snow

[Ice Man 85]

The only way the south will see snow at this time of year will be if someone with a dirty scalp sits on your roof and scratches their head

 

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

I already sold my sledge on ebay 

[tinybill]

7 hours ago, Surrey said:

Go to bed Arepge yo drunk.. 

even  the bbc are saying  some places  might see some snow on high parts!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looking at the charts this morning it actually is starting to look like quite a nasty feature

[Dami]

even if it doesn't snow, that still means it's gonna be a chilly one. Bug kay off.

[alexisj9]

I didn't want to be right with my rainfall total in the CET thread honest. Not sure I want this weekends weather at all.

[Delka]

The last two weeks have had some amazing weather, had two thunderstorms too! One of which gave us some incredible clouds, much better then any I've ever seen in summer here before, looked like something straight out of America!

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, Delka said:

The last two weeks have had some amazing weather, had two thunderstorms too! One of which gave us some incredible clouds, much better then any I've ever seen in summer here before, looked like something straight out of America!

Yep there was a supercell that tracked across Norfolk and into the North sea, nice picture.

[Delka]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep there was a supercell that tracked across Norfolk and into the North sea, nice picture.

Oh wow, it was certainly something, worth getting a pummelling of hail and rain because the cloudscapes and atmosphere was just something else..

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Flash flooding major issue this afternoon no idea why it's not been hinted at, the current band of rain pepping itself up over south London is going to move very slowly north and then stall as it pushes out east. Torrential rain here now... 

Will do a full right up on Sunday maybe tomorrow morning when I got better info but its been a very long time I have ever seen something like Sunday in April/may although it can and does happen.. 

Settling snow is a Deffo no, but seeing something fall is a yes on higher ground. 

Flooding? Well that's certainly the biggest risk along with some serious gales 

[LightningLover]

Sunday night into Monday is looking rather wet, to say the least...

[lassie23]

5 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Sunday night into Monday is looking rather wet, to say the least...

No snow though.....right

[Captain Shortwave]

22 hours ago, The East has Ceased said:

I already sold my sledge on ebay 

Protip, buy a boat......

So today was garbage and we are set for a few more days of garbage. The set on show is pretty much the worst case scenario during the warmer parts of the year. Even in mid summer charts lile this year could give temperatures is single figures.... it is that bad and we really don't need the rain.

[Daniel*]

23 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

The only way the south will see snow at this time of year will be if someone with a dirty scalp sits on your roof and scratches their head

 

Two years ago think it was today we had snow showers even in London, the gates are not fully slammed shut yet although almost the cut off point till late October at earliest..

Edited April 27, 2018 by Daniel*

[Come rain snow or shine]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Two years ago think it was today we had snow showers even in London, the gates are not fully slammed shut yet although almost the cut off point till late October at earliest..

It's snowed in Surrey in May before - and in Peterborough on a May 19th - in daylight hours.  On both occasions the culprit was a snow shower, not a band of snow. 

[SMU]

00z aperge for 11am Mon

Perhaps some snow over the tops of the downs

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning gang,

Some changes over night with regards to Sunday night/ Mondays low

Snow threat really is decreasing run by run as Steve posted above it will/looks only like the very highst of ground will see any falling white stuff..

First thing to note is GFS has backed away from a deeper area of low pressure but brings it further west

MOST high res models have gone further EAST

 

As of midnight Monday the area of low pressure has deepend.. BUT not to what was previously modeled.. Wednesday/Thursday looked like 60-70mph on coasts now 40-50mph seems more reasonable.. 

The bigger question mark remains on how far West the PPN will get .. AND if there will be any white stuff falling. Although as I posted above its looking a lot less likely..

ARPEGE going with the more eastern biased..

 

GFS on the other hand going with a very Western biased theme.. The far south east might wonder what all the fuss was about if this plays out, this is due to the placement of the center of the low.. 

HIRLAM goes EAST and also a lot earlier but brings some monsoon conditions 

AND finally the ICON goes so far EAST there is nothing to worry about.. BUT it is sticking out like a sore thumb on this one.. IF the other models start to go towards this idea today then maybe we can begin to see a trend..

So expected totals from each model.. I have thrown in the NMM on this too..all up to 6PM Monday 

NMM 

ARPEGE

GFS

HIRLAM

ICON

 

Now you can see how many solutions there are! A fluid situation with the potential for some flooding to property IF worst case happens which would be the ARPEGE/GFS idea

 

Edited April 28, 2018 by Surrey

[Mokidugway]

I'd be collecting it in buckets as I'm shure the south east will endure 6 months of dustbowl conditions soon ..

[wally]

Thanks for going to the trouble of posting that synopsis for us Luke, always nice to have some idea whats going on.

It's a grey miserable day in Bedford temp 9C with little wind.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

cool charts Surrey! like the Aperge and Icon, gives me a completely dry day, against GFS/Meto BBC though

FAX looks bad here though, although a bit further East than yesterdays

[Captain Shortwave]

Another awful day with plenty of rain, despite forecasts for the rain to ease off if anything it has turned heavier again. Just 7c today, to think we were in the high twenties just over a week ago.

Edited April 28, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[lassie23]

On 4/26/2018 at 14:19, Neilsouth said:

I'm going Metal Detecting on Friday Morning in Kent, does anyone have a predicted radar for tomorrow, what time is it supposed to arrive?

did you detect any metal