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Gray-Wolf

Arctic melt Season 2018

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Sadly , Blessed, there are still those cheering the fact that we are not rock bottom and so ignoring the decadal trend in favour of 'yearly weather'?

For those of us that find Jen Francis 'on the money' with her interpretation of what becomes of all the energy now absorbed by open water/land surfaces (that once was bounced back into space or spent on melting ice) then the potential for even more 'seasonal Ocean' in the basin is deeply disturbing?

I know it is very over simplified but if the turning seasonal of most of Kara/Barentsz through the noughties lead to the Jet positioning that fed us our 'washout Summers' then the 2012 opening of most of Beaufort/ESS/Chukchi might have lead to a re-positioning of the jet position to that which we have seen this summer.

This would mean that we have a run of Summers to come with similar synoptics to this years and only ending either when the Ocean areas either become ice covered year round again or another portion of the basin opens seasonally and that added energy in the climate system further augments the jet positioning?

I know our washout Summers were bad but the extremes we have seen this year are also pretty grim? I did not see the NHS running at capacity over any of the washout July's but this year it did!

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10 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Sadly , Blessed, there are still those cheering the fact that we are not rock bottom and so ignoring the decadal trend in favour of 'yearly weather'?

For those of us that find Jen Francis 'on the money' with her interpretation of what becomes of all the energy now absorbed by open water/land surfaces (that once was bounced back into space or spent on melting ice) then the potential for even more 'seasonal Ocean' in the basin is deeply disturbing?

I know it is very over simplified but if the turning seasonal of most of Kara/Barentsz through the noughties lead to the Jet positioning that fed us our 'washout Summers' then the 2012 opening of most of Beaufort/ESS/Chukchi might have lead to a re-positioning of the jet position to that which we have seen this summer.

This would mean that we have a run of Summers to come with similar synoptics to this years and only ending either when the Ocean areas either become ice covered year round again or another portion of the basin opens seasonally and that added energy in the climate system further augments the jet positioning?

I know our washout Summers were bad but the extremes we have seen this year are also pretty grim? I did not see the NHS running at capacity over any of the washout July's but this year it did!

Agree with parts of this post but you can't tell me for certain that the jet stream positioning is all down to sea ice. Natural factors are no doubt are at play also.

We had the theory that warmer arctic summers with less ice will promote more blocking at higher latitudes as warm air tend to come with high pressure cells than troughs which in turn pushes the jet stream further south and giving the UK poorer summers but it turned out that this won't always be the case because of variability. 

I think one thing of climate change has done is that upper air Temps are warmer globally and less sea ice means less moderation of that warmth. The Laptev sea is a good example of this with its very high anomalies atm yet if the laptev was as ice covered as 2016 we won't be seeing such temperatures right now.

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I'm sorry G.S. but I'm not laying it all at the door of low sea ice it is just the most altered of the forcings?

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Well here's another very interesting chart produced by Zach Labe. A great way of looking at how Arctic air temperatures have been steadily increasing during the satellite era (since 1979). There seems to have been a notable 'flip' as we entered the 2000's. Did the Arctic cross a tipping point or is some other aspect of global climate at play??

Ranks: 1=warmest (red), 40=coldest (blue)

1146332841_ZachLabeArcticAirTemptweetJul2018.thumb.jpg.3643e69fcd54589540715fba45d91947.jpg

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1029219662536396801

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I find it interesting that April 1995 and November 1996 stand out so much during the otherwise relatively cool 1990s, and especially as both of those months had a fairly potent spell of northerlies over the UK.  November 1996 was especially remarkable as it followed an unusually cool summer which most likely contributed to the near record high Arctic sea ice minimum that year (second only to 1980).

Looking over the synoptics both months appeared to have the North Pole often in a sandwich between high pressure over the east Siberian side and low pressure over the Atlantic side, sending air masses from southern and eastern Europe all the way up to the North Pole.  Mid-November 1996 also had a warm incursion through the Bering/Chukchi Sea area.  The main explanation why the UK nonetheless had cold northerly spells was probably that the anomalous warmth in the Arctic did not really affect the Greenland/Iceland region, and in both cases the UK's air mass was sourced from west of due north. 

Also July 1998 stands out a bit.  Looking at the synoptic charts for that month (which was notoriously cyclonic and unsettled over much of northern Europe) there was a lot of warm continental air being sent around the northern flank of the northern European lows into high latitudes.

I had always thought of 2005 as the year when the Arctic saw a step-change, but judging by those monthly rankings, it would appear that the Arctic as a whole saw a marked warming since around 2000, and the marked step-change in 2005 was probably a regional thing in the Barents/Kara region.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers

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21 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Arctic sea ice usually reaches its minimum around early/mid September. But this year (August 16th) it's already below the minimums from the 1980, 1990, and 2000 decadal averages.

1062012291_ZachLabeArcticSeaIcetweet16Aug2018.thumb.jpg.1e15b263db5388f914b7a666953cb03c.jpg

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1030128092545576960

 

Indeed ^^ however 2018 is close to the current decadal trend all be it slightly below

The next 14 days are crucial towards the final position - with the last 2 days in particular producing some worrying numbers ....

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I feel like I am missing something here, but surely that Arctic Sea Ice Extent chart shows that the rate of decline in ice has actually slowed or at the same pace?? The 2018 line is what the 2010 mean line should look like.

Edited by Rambo

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If the 2018 line was the 2010-2019 decadal average then the 4 decades you see pretty much show that the additional loss of ice as we move into the each decade is about the same -

So the 2020-2029 ave would drop into the high 3S / low 4s

 

S

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Glad I'm not the only one then! Thought I was going mad.

I just found it odd that Blessed Weather was saying that the current Ice is already below the last mean, as thats been the case every mean since the 80's!

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I wonder what you all make of this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/21/arctics-strongest-sea-ice-breaks-up-for-first-time-on-record 

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22 hours ago, knocker said:

 

Yet the overall ice sheet is comfortably above the 1981 - 2010 Mean.

accumulatedsmb.png

 

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On 10/08/2018 at 17:01, Gray-Wolf said:

Sadly , Blessed, there are still those cheering the fact that we are not rock bottom and so ignoring the decadal trend in favour of 'yearly weather'?

 

On 16/08/2018 at 20:58, Blessed Weather said:

Arctic sea ice usually reaches its minimum around early/mid September. But this year (August 16th) it's already below the minimums from the 1980, 1990, and 2000 decadal averages.

1062012291_ZachLabeArcticSeaIcetweet16Aug2018.thumb.jpg.1e15b263db5388f914b7a666953cb03c.jpg

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1030128092545576960

 

According to the DMI the Greenland Ice Sheet is comfortably above the 30 year average this August.

 accumulatedsmb.png

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1 hour ago, soft lad said:

 

According to the DMI the Greenland Ice Sheet is comfortably above the 30 year average this August.

 accumulatedsmb.png

It's certainly looking like a good year for the Greenland surface mass balance (SMB). It will be interesting to see how this affects the mass balance of the ice sheet as a whole this year. Might it temporarily offset the long term decline?
GrnLndMassTrnd.png

However, that discussion/speculation is more suited to the Greenland thread. This thread is about the Arctic sea ice.

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On 10/08/2018 at 17:01, Gray-Wolf said:

Sadly , Blessed, there are still those cheering the fact that we are not rock bottom and so ignoring the decadal trend in favour of 'yearly weather'?

Although this is the 2018 thread you have made a comment that I would still like to reply to.

1920's until mid 1970's. What's there? Nothing much apart from the ups and downs of multi-decadal trends 🙂 

Screen-Shot-2017-02-14-at-6.12.59-AM-dow

https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5885458

1970's where NOAA and the gang prefer to start. What's there? Nothing much apart from the downward leg of a decadal trend and the potential turning point in 2012.

fig4.2-perovich-1024x571.gif

ftp://ftp.oar.noaa.gov/arctic/documents/ArcticReportCard_full_report2016.pdf

From your comment you seemed to struggle to understand those who cheer the fact that yet again this year we will not be at an all time low. Let me tell you why people like myself cheer these changes, as our belief is that we are only experiencing climates natural oscillation (as noted on 1st and 2nd images) and the sooner we see ice above the mean for 2 or 3 years it brings us closer to the day when we will witness the bursting of the 'man-made-global-warming-climate-change-bubble', which now pretty much has claimed all extreme weather and related events such as wild-fires, droughts, floods, hurricanes, unexpected cold winters and very brief and far from excessive heatwaves. 

Anyway back to this years ice sheet which according to the DMI is clearly above the 30 year mean and since 2012 looks to be starting the next decadal oscillation.

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1 hour ago, soft lad said:

Although this is the 2018 thread you have made a comment that I would still like to reply to.

1920's until mid 1970's. What's there? Nothing much apart from the ups and downs of multi-decadal trends 🙂 

Screen-Shot-2017-02-14-at-6.12.59-AM-dow

https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5885458

@soft lad What measure is "sea ice amount"? Is it extent? Area? Some other measurement? What do you think it shows and what happened after 1975?
Assuming it is a measure of sea ice extent, or something similar, do you know how the lowest value on that chart compares with recent low values in extent?

If you want to look extra long term, perhaps you can spot where there was a big change is the sea ice coverage trend and what it may have coincided with?
kinnard_2011_sea_ice.jpg?w=750&h=563

The rest of your post is better suited to other threads, but, if you take the time to read some of the links and reports you posted, you'll find they contradict most of what you said.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid

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20 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

@soft lad What measure is "sea ice amount"? Is it extent? Area? Some other measurement? What do you think it shows and what happened after 1975?
Assuming it is a measure of sea ice extent, or something similar, do you know how the lowest value on that chart compares with recent low values in extent?

If you want to look extra long term, perhaps you can spot where there was a big change is the sea ice coverage trend and what it may have coincided with?
kinnard_2011_sea_ice.jpg?w=750&h=563

The rest of your post is better suited to other threads, but, if you take the time to read some of the links and reports you posted, you'll find they contradict most of what you said.

I am fully aware of the contradiction and do not subscribe to it. The interesting part for me was that the cycle was documented. That doesn't happen much these days. The ice amount, extent, area of those charts I provided are not of interest to me, the cycles plotted are though.

As far as Arctic ice is concerned over the last 10,000 years there has only been more ice during the LIA. Although your chart is interesting it doesn't really show anything other than the more recent ice melt. To find out if that ice melt is impressive or not we really need to look back to see what ice levels have been over previous years. It is all good and well seeing the top and fall but how far did it reach to get to the top in the first place? I'm sure you get me? 🙂 

Chart dating back 10,000 years.

Arctic-Sea-Ice-Holocene-Stein-17-768x496

http://notrickszone.com/2017/03/02/new-paper-indicates-there-is-more-arctic-sea-ice-now-than-for-nearly-all-of-the-last-10000-years/

With the AMO expected to turn negative over coming years this is why I am extremely interested in the Arctic Ice Levels this year the last few years and the two or three decades to come. Along with Solar (which I wont get in to here) a lot of the ice melt has a strong chance to be replaced during that 2 to 4 decade period and as you can see on the above 10,000 year ice chart, current melt isn't anything to be alarmed about. Where as yours does kinda look scary lol

image-20150528-31344-zr6dkt.png?ixlib=rb 

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1 hour ago, soft lad said:

I am fully aware of the contradiction and do not subscribe to it. The interesting part for me was that the cycle was documented. That doesn't happen much these days. The ice amount, extent, area of those charts I provided are not of interest to me, the cycles plotted are though.

As far as Arctic ice is concerned over the last 10,000 years there has only been more ice during the LIA. Although your chart is interesting it doesn't really show anything other than the more recent ice melt. To find out if that ice melt is impressive or not we really need to look back to see what ice levels have been over previous years. It is all good and well seeing the top and fall but how far did it reach to get to the top in the first place? I'm sure you get me? 🙂 

Chart dating back 10,000 years.

Arctic-Sea-Ice-Holocene-Stein-17-768x496

http://notrickszone.com/2017/03/02/new-paper-indicates-there-is-more-arctic-sea-ice-now-than-for-nearly-all-of-the-last-10000-years/

With the AMO expected to turn negative over coming years this is why I am extremely interested in the Arctic Ice Levels this year the last few years and the two or three decades to come. Along with Solar (which I wont get in to here) a lot of the ice melt has a strong chance to be replaced during that 2 to 4 decade period and as you can see on the above 10,000 year ice chart, current melt isn't anything to be alarmed about. Where as yours does kinda look scary lol

image-20150528-31344-zr6dkt.png?ixlib=rb 

A quick warning, soft lad, climate denier sites are banned from netweather (like notrickzone and realclimatescience), so don't be surprised if your posts get edited or removed.

So, the paper you've linked to. It's a reconstruction of Holocene Arctic sea ice based on proxy data from 2 sediment cores, one from the Chukchi sea and the other from the East Siberian Sea, so mainly focused on the Pacific side, but capable of giving a view of the whole ocean.
They look at variability on millennial and centennial scales (rather than the annual or decadal scales we currently observe sea ice in). So what's their main conclusion?

"The main factors controlling the millennial variability in sea ice and surface-water productivity are probably changes in surface water and heat flow from the Pacific into the Arctic Ocean as well as the long-term decrease in summer insolation, whereas short-term centennial variability observed in the high-resolution middle Holocene record was possibly triggered by solar forcing"

The long term decrease in Arctic summer insolation, which is related to the Milankovitch cycles, and changes to Pacific water inflow through the Bering strait has caused much of the long term trend for increased sea ice up to year 0 (which is likely the 100 year average up to 1950 - which is the date used for "present" in BP for most studies"). The recent acceleration (few hundred years up to 1950) in sea ice growth is down to the long term cooling and coincides with more growing glaciers across much of the Arctic (which are also now melting).
The paper doesn't mention little ice age or MWP, those notes were edited into the images without stating that they were edited! Those websites like to deceive!

So the paper says nothing about what's driving sea ice changes over recent decades, nor does it show sea ice for recent decades. But it does confirm what other studies say, that the planet was cooling and sea ice increasing right up until we started emitted large volumes of CO2 into the atmosphere.

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I think the basics are that the climate is changing to a warmer climate but the natural cycle still remains that for one area that is above average temperatures wise another area is below average hence the cold weather event the planet will still get despite a warmer climate. The problem is those above average temperatures are getting even more above average and this is especially the case in the Arctic during winter time. Yes, WAA events have always occured in the poles in the past but the issue these days is that the PV over the pole is weaker these days so any WAA event seems to persist for longer and the cold air takes longer to recover. 

What I do loath to read about is how every single weather event is linked to man made climate change or how wildfires is a sign of a hotter and drier climate. That said we yet again have seen some extremes in the weather this summer like the impressive heatwave over Scandinavia during July, the Siberian heatwave hence temps in the Laptev Sea are quite high. Conversely parts of Alaska would seem to have quite a chilly summer with sea ice(if albeit rather diffuse and a small area) still hanging on near the Alaskan coastline. 

Back to the current ice, seems like Imo we will finish extent around where last year finished up give or take either way but because of the ice edge being further North than last year it does suguest this year there will be a bit more ice in the Arctic basin itself and the ice itself does seem to be more compact than last year and especially 2016 so some small crumbs of comfort perhaps even if the extent figures show that it' another low year. 

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Not over 'till its over Gs!

Over on the Arctic Sea Ice forum folk are noting the Pacific side is on the move into open, warmed, waters and the same over on our side?

With the ice 'free floating'  and fragmented any storm/dipole can suddenly see a lot of ice on the move into danger zones?

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2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Not over 'till its over Gs!

Over on the Arctic Sea Ice forum folk are noting the Pacific side is on the move into open, warmed, waters and the same over on our side?

With the ice 'free floating'  and fragmented any storm/dipole can suddenly see a lot of ice on the move into danger zones?

Ice always moves though whatever weather patter  so nothing new there but I just think looking at the ice maps with concentration and compactness etc then Imo it seems we are heading to a total to last year. I must admit giving the highish compactness I thought we would see a bit more of a slow down than we seen so far but I'll be surprised if we got to 2007/16 levels but you never know with the Arctic.

Speaking of the weather a huge cyclone could hit the basin quite widely soon although at this stage perhaps not very deep but if it sets up right it to could start forming the PV more widely but I do think the models and especially the ECM overdo cold temperatures in the medium range but one to watch. 

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Apart from the fact that pretty much none of the last 20 posts or so have anything to do with Arctic sea ice, the rules in this section are quite clear.

Anything further and people might find they aren't able to post in here.

Thanks

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46 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Ice always moves though whatever weather patter  so nothing new there but I just think looking at the ice maps with concentration and compactness etc then Imo it seems we are heading to a total to last year. I must admit giving the highish compactness I thought we would see a bit more of a slow down than we seen so far but I'll be surprised if we got to 2007/16 levels but you never know with the Arctic.

Speaking of the weather a huge cyclone could hit the basin quite widely soon although at this stage perhaps not very deep but if it sets up right it to could start forming the PV more widely but I do think the models and especially the ECM overdo cold temperatures in the medium range but one to watch. 

I'm hoping, GS, that the upcoming Solar GM will ameliorate the effects of the Arctic Amplification and, hopefully, arrest the reduction in sea-ice...Only time will tell?

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So I asked a simple polite question and my post has been deleted with no explanation at all???? What a joke.......I assume from that response then that nothing contradicting "global warming" can be posted.....thats truly shocking really!!

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