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Arctic melt Season 2018


Gray-Wolf

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
4 hours ago, reef said:

It's still looking poor for any real refreezing at the moment, with the models showing a large injection of warm air from the Pacific side next week:

GFSOPNH12_144_2.png

The Arctic Ocean as a whole has little sub -5C 850hPa air and by then it's 1st October!

Compare that to 2012:

NOAA_2_2012100100_2.png

Obviously you get variation between years, but the patterns aren't great right now.

Reef..

You are looking at forecast charts for 4 days away, and at 850 level..

Current C R shows large areas  of the pole (above 80 degrees) are covered by sub -10C temperatures, stretching out from Greenland at 2meters. 

The areas around the Russian coastline are the exception still I agree..

The cold has seeped out at ground level flowing down from the very cold Greenland plateau, where temperatures are down at around -35C.

See the map below for much more detail -

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2min

and -

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2

 

MIA

 

image.png

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

At this time of year, the ice can still hold temperatures at or near 0C at the surface, so it's reasonable to use 850hPa temps. However, cold temperatures (but still well above normal) over the ice covered areas isn't going to do much to help the open water regions to refreeze.

By 3 days out, we have 2m temps above 0C moving over the pole and even less 2m temps below -10C across the Arctic ocean.

24.png

The 2m temperature anomaly for the next 5 days doesn't look so good.
gfs_arc-lea_t2anom_5-day.png

 

So as reef said, looking poor for a good early refreeze atm.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Also wind direction is a key factor, strong warm southeries will mean no refreezing will occur on the pacific side as the ice will be compacted so whilst the minimum has been reached i think the trend line will head towards the 2007 and 2012 line by the start of October. I havant seen temperatures looking as warm as this at this time of year although October 2016 also saw ridiculasly warm conditions.

At this rate Hudson Bay could see a early refreeze as September has been cold in Canada whilst large parts of the Arctic ocean could be ice free.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Some crazy 850hPa anomalies showing up on the ECM
ECH100-144.GIF?28-12

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Some crazy 850hPa anomalies showing up on the ECM
ECH100-144.GIF?28-12

Wow... this will make October 2016 look minor in comparison. Ironically high pressure over the Arctic during darkness is not a bad thing but it is the type of high that can make the difference. This high bringing such warmth and compacting winds is nothing but bad news for the ice, refreeze will be minimal at best and the ice will just not thicken either. I just cant see anything but record lows as we head into mid October giving the current set up.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Just wondering here - does all this ice melt auger well for blocking in winter?, I have read it does but am very sceptical about this myself as surely the biggest melt seasons have been in the 21st century, but we have had a lot more zonal mild winters than we have blocked ones. plus why are scientists telling us we are more likely to have mild winters with flooding in the UK in the future as presumably they also think this ice melt era wont reverse any time soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
46 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just wondering here - does all this ice melt auger well for blocking in winter?, I have read it does but am very sceptical about this myself as surely the biggest melt seasons have been in the 21st century, but we have had a lot more zonal mild winters than we have blocked ones. plus why are scientists telling us we are more likely to have mild winters with flooding in the UK in the future as presumably they also think this ice melt era wont reverse any time soon.

I did some basic correlations between September sea ice extent and winter CET a few years ago. Here's the thread/comment: 

Could probably do with some updating!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
On ‎28‎/‎09‎/‎2018 at 16:02, BornFromTheVoid said:

I did some basic correlations between September sea ice extent and winter CET a few years ago. Here's the thread/comment: 

Could probably do with some updating!

Read that post, I would imagine though that the correlations would only refer to the more recent times then as for instance in the Dalton and maunder minima, there would have been much less melt yet CET's were extremely low?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Quote

This year, the Arctic sea ice extent reached its annual minimum late in the season: On September 19th a first minimum was reached, and it was followed by a second minimum on September 23rd. Tied only with 1997, this is the latest day of occurrence of the summer minimum in sea ice extent since start of the satellite record. The current annual minimum is the 6th lowest sea ice extent in the record, tied with 2008 and 2010. This year will, however, probably be remembered primarily for the unusual opening in the otherwise very robust sea ice areas north of Greenland.

 

http://polarportal.dk/en/news/news/late-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-2018/

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

As of this mornings ADS update, Arctic sea ice extent is currently 2nd lowest for the time of year.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent/&time=2018-10-07 00:00:00

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

For those that haven't seen it, Neven's latest blog is worth a look.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2018/10/freezing-season-has-started-or-has-it.html

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
20 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

For those that haven't seen it, Neven's latest blog is worth a look.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2018/10/freezing-season-has-started-or-has-it.html

Isn't it time we had a 2018 - 2019 refreeze thread?

MIA

This graphic shows the whole Arctic..….

Also Maisie suggests we have gained 657K Km2 of ice extent since the minimum?

 

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_201810

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2223.0;attach=109611;image

melt season may well have ended but its not exactly 'refreezing' is it granpa?

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
47 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2223.0;attach=109611;image

melt season may well have ended but its not exactly 'refreezing' is it granpa?

Actually thats interesting.  So if im reading this correct  if we compare this time of year to all others on the graph it shows that ice concentration levels are infact the lowest they have been including 2012.   hardly any rise since early September. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Actually thats interesting.  So if im reading this correct  if we compare this time of year to all others on the graph it shows that ice concentration levels are infact the lowest they have been including 2012.   hardly any rise since early September. 

That graph is focused on the area enclosing Arctic ocean, so leaves out a few regions that at this time of year still have ice, such as the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland sea. These other areas (and more that gain ice further into winter... usually) are counted towards the northern hemisphere sea ice extent, which is the most common one we hear about, and the one shown on most official graphs.
The region represented in the graph is the likely last place we'll see summer ice as it diminishes, so it's interesting to see how the ice is doing in that particular region.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
4 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2223.0;attach=109611;image

melt season may well have ended but its not exactly 'refreezing' is it granpa?

GW...

 As BFTV explains above your graphic is cherry picking (though interesting). It shows only the extent. 

The area in the central Arctic although not increasing in extent is actually thickening quite rapidly due to compression. That is what the Maisie graphic (I displayed)  is showing. Volume and thickness are increasing at above normal rates in the area you chose  to display..

This could become more important towards the end of the season, as it would indicate a  future more resilient (through thickness) ice pack.

My suggestion above could be slightly optimistic, but is one of several that could happen, It is all pure speculation at the moment.

I still feel the need for this forum to remain balanced.  

The graphic I show from Maisie represents the true Northern Hemisphere ice extent, whereas yours (I noticed it on ASIF), is one produced by a highly  biased blogger on that forum. 

MIA

I repeat again with over 600K Km2 of ice in the Northern Hemisphere, compared to the minimum,  and with volume up by 1000 Km3,  is it not worth a new thread?

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Is the heading Arctic Basin Sea Ice Area really so vague that it allows room for 'cherry picking'?:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
5 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2223.0;attach=109611;image

melt season may well have ended but its not exactly 'refreezing' is it granpa?

Likely due to the storm that just hit the pole yesterday which seems to lower the concentration of the ice over the CAB, things are set to calm down so ice concentration should increase again.

Not surprises by the slow refreeze as there has been alot of weather which favours compaction therefore slow growth, predicted extent would head towards 2007 and 2012 as i could not see any favourable wind direction or cold which would result in large extent increases. The forecast looks a little better now so hopefully we will see steeper climbs and wont have a 2016 style October.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

GW...

 As BFTV explains above your graphic is cherry picking (though interesting). It shows only the extent. 

The area in the central Arctic although not increasing in extent is actually thickening quite rapidly due to compression. That is what the Maisie graphic (I displayed)  is showing. Volume and thickness are increasing at above normal rates in the area you chose  to display..

This could become more important towards the end of the season, as it would indicate a  future more resilient (through thickness) ice pack.

My suggestion above could be slightly optimistic, but is one of several that could happen, It is all pure speculation at the moment.

I still feel the need for this forum to remain balanced.  

The graphic I show from Maisie represents the true Northern Hemisphere ice extent, whereas yours (I noticed it on ASIF), is one produced by a highly  biased blogger on that forum. 

MIA

I repeat again with over 600K Km2 of ice in the Northern Hemisphere, compared to the minimum,  and with volume up by 1000 Km3,  is it not worth a new thread?

I don't consider it cherry picking. It's an important area for the reasons I mentioned, and worth paying specific attention to.

You've posted nothing from MASIE, btw. And the thickness/volume data from the DMI you did post shows the opposite of what you're claiming. Volume is increasing at a slower rate than normal (black line on the volume graph for 2018). If you run through the sequence, 2018 has gone from being well within the grey range to just on the edge of the grey, and from 4th lowest to 2nd lowest over the last 2 weeks.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

If you are calling Wipneus highly biased, then you are clearly the most deluded member on this forum.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
30 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I don't consider it cherry picking. It's an important area for the reasons I mentioned, and worth paying specific attention to.

You've posted nothing from MASIE, btw. And the thickness/volume data from the DMI you did post shows the opposite of what you're claiming. Volume is increasing at a slower rate than normal (black line on the volume graph for 2018). If you run through the sequence, 2018 has gone from being well within the grey range to just on the edge of the grey, and from 4th lowest to 2nd lowest over the last 2 weeks.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

If you are calling Wipneus highly biased, then you are clearly the most deluded member on this forum.

BTFV..

I did acknowledge that the ice is not increasing in extent in the Central Arctic pack. 

Sorry about the Maisie graph, I failed to copy the link. I have the link below -

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots

 

The thickness and volume data I have posted show that currently the volume is still within the average band of the 2010 decade.

This is despite the fact that sea ice is still losing extent in the central ice regions.

 

 

It means that this can only be according due to compaction in the central Arctic ice region. Do you not agree?

 

If  you go back by 30 days on the DMI map you can see clearly see that the ice in the central Arctic has thickened quite a bit, at the same time as the ice  boundary has moved to the NE.

Wipneus was the not the originator of this graph.  He used it in his latest report. This proves to me he is producing  data where the sea ice is losing extent and not presenting the total position  (ie thickening)..

Do you really see him as unbiased?.  Clue Look back at his reports for earlier on in the year.

MIA

 

 

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I don't consider it cherry picking. It's an important area for the reasons I mentioned, and worth paying specific attention to.

You've posted nothing from MASIE, btw. And the thickness/volume data from the DMI you did post shows the opposite of what you're claiming. Volume is increasing at a slower rate than normal (black line on the volume graph for 2018). If you run through the sequence, 2018 has gone from being well within the grey range to just on the edge of the grey, and from 4th lowest to 2nd lowest over the last 2 weeks.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

If you are calling Wipneus highly biased, then you are clearly the most deluded member on this forum.

Without the exact figures, its difficult to tell from the graph as its fairly small, but its increasing just about bang on the average rate, maybe slightly below, or maybe above....as I said, really need a higher res graph!

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Is the heading Arctic Basin Sea Ice Area really so vague that it allows room for 'cherry picking'?:cc_confused:

Ed...

The central Arctic basin has been chosen due to its very slow growth this year.

The normal measure used for the comparison is the Northern hemisphere sea ice. (see BFTV post above).

This  is chosen because it eliminates any weather conditions which may increase ice in one part, whilst decreasing it in another. 

This year the weather conditions have been extremely 'mild' in the Eastern arctic (Russian side), but conversely very 'chilly' on the Western side (in Greenland and the North Canadian areas).

This means, with most of the open sea water, being on the Eastern side of the area above 80 degrees that the ice extent will be low at this point. 

Note - I used the words 'mild' and 'chilly'. as in most areas it is still below freezing. 

Why bother to explain - Well Greenland, Beaufort and the CAA are above normal sea ice levels this year!

I would have been accused of cherry picking if I had produced a list of those three!!!!!

(see my link of Maisie  to BFTV above) for the actual data of these 3 regions.).

The real point I am making is that there is very little sea ice to be frozen in the Canadian Arctic and Greenland. That is where all the really cold air has been so far this ice re-growth season.

It clearly explains why the ice extent is low (so far) into the re-growth season. This is an effect of the SLP in the area.

However my major point to GW (and BFTV) is that

1) although ice extent levels are very low  (for this time of year), the volume is still in the bounds of the 2004 - 2013 levels. This means that somewhere must have increased thickness.

It is clearly showing up in the Central Arctic as one can see from the DMI ice volume and thickness graph. Just go back one day at a time for the 40 days to see it happening. 

2) That the ice regrowth is occurring. Even Wipneus has conceded that!

 

MIA

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
10 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Without the exact figures, its difficult to tell from the graph as its fairly small, but its increasing just about bang on the average rate, maybe slightly below, or maybe above....as I said, really need a higher res graph!

Rambo...

Use the zoom feature...  (up to 300 times!)

It is clearly increasing at reasonably average  rates as seen in the 2004 -2013 period.. 

MIA

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