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Arctic melt Season 2018


Gray-Wolf

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
9 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Worrying times ahead

88CAAB3A-3904-4C49-BEDB-BDA706FA8A51.thumb.jpeg.9d90a8f361ed537e72d5d1563376fca5.jpeg

Very impressive heat it must be said however how much cloud there will be is more uncertain. Either way a low pressure system which looks like could be a deep one will cut off the heat and things turn much colder with a strong reverse dipole developing. 

Interesting times. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
On 04/07/2018 at 17:43, Steve Murr said:

Worrying times ahead

88CAAB3A-3904-4C49-BEDB-BDA706FA8A51.thumb.jpeg.9d90a8f361ed537e72d5d1563376fca5.jpeg

Oh my gawd!  What is our planet playing at!?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

The low appears to have bottomed out at 968 mb. We will be finding out what this has done to the ice but there were 3m swells in the open water of Beaufort!

Anyone merely looking at the numbers will be pleasantly surprised at how well we are doing, anyone looking at the state of the ice might be thinking 'I wonder how low this will go?'

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
On 08/07/2018 at 10:21, Gray-Wolf said:

The low appears to have bottomed out at 968 mb. We will be finding out what this has done to the ice but there were 3m swells in the open water of Beaufort!

Anyone merely looking at the numbers will be pleasantly surprised at how well we are doing, anyone looking at the state of the ice might be thinking 'I wonder how low this will go?'

Think that is a decent point as compactness has dropped so sharply it went from the highest on record to the lowest on record in a matter of a couple of weeks which suggests parts of the ice pack is weakening a lot and melt ponds could well be quite high too.

Really uncertain on where we will end up this year although I think a record low could be fairly unlikely. The big joker to this year's melt could well be bottom melt as SSTS are well above average all around the ice.

You also have to say on the whole weather conditions look favourable for ice retention although there is a complication in that some warmer air will hit the  Beaufort sea with quite strong winds. Also Hudson, Kara and to a lesser extent baffin bay are poised to melt out very soon could mean we will see quite strong extent losses anyways especially with how vulnable the ice is looking in these regions.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think , in the evolution of the pack as we move ( seemingly) towards a normal that has us ice free by September, we must see the pack become increasingly broken up and dispersed over 'average' weather years?

As such at least being mindful of the difference between area/extent measures would be useful?

As you say we have seen open water in our peripheral areas from early on in the season ( coupled with the increased flow of Atlantic/Pacific waters into the basin) so there will be 'kill zones' for any ice blown in their direction?

Any move toward a more fragmented central basin area leads to a situation where low pressure systems could be flinging the ice out of the higher Lat's and into the  'warmed' open waters in the periphery .This , in its turn ,would lead to melt season seeing an uptick in losses over August/September when losses used to be falling away toward min.?

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

It's fascinating to see a melt season seemingly dominated by 'sloshing' mechanisms as the ocean waters are stirred up by unusually persistent trough activity across the basin.

With all the cloud cover in the way, it's hard to track this process reliably and be sure just how much, or how little, damage is being done to the ice on the Canadian side in particular.

It's still more of a solar-induced setup on the Eurasian side, but not as much so as it was a month ago.

 

Seems like the ice will either become so thin in the likes of the Beaufort that it totally falls apart, or it will have just enough left in it to form a lattice that could in theory allow a fast recovery during the freezing season. Unless, that is, there's deep storm activity in effect - and this has higher than usual potential due to situations such as the Laptev ice holding on unusually long next to a roasting continent, and the overall colder Canadian/warmer Eurasian side pattern that's becoming increasingly stark as time goes on.

Much contemplation warranted (but unfortunately not exercised very often on my part due to work demands!).

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Svalbard sea ice way down and has been running below the longer term 1981-2010 minimum level for nearly two months now.

1725176977_SvalbardSeaIce11July2018.thumb.jpg.6555ffe51b1e7b0d9dee3f9c36670f60.jpg

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1017634245009858560
http://polarview.met.no/

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I fear the Atlantification of that side of the basin is done and extends north of Svalbard. The only ice it now sees is imported from the central basin ( weakening ice cover there) so is a bad thing to see though that last incursion may have helped the Polar Bears get onto the ice to feed?

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Been really interesting to see how this melt season ice distribution has been totally different to last year's in that 2017 had an ice pack more favoured towards the Atlantic side of the Arctic whereas this year the ice on the Pacific side has been more persistent especially in the ESS. However, the ice on the Pacific side and especially in the Beaufort sea is falling apart now and the ice here is looking very much like slush now in most parts so i do expect the strong melting we seen recently to continue but conditions in the CAB do look like remaining chilly so hopefully we wont see much in the way of low concentration here.

Also the trend is for pressure to rise across the Arctic although details are subject to change, that said don't quite see a full on dipole appearing yet in the medium term or anything as severe as in 2007/11 and 2015 but as August 2014 shows though, if a strong high pressure cell does form even into August then it can still do quite a bit of considerable damage to the ice so still a way to go in this melt season to know where we will fully end up by September.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Im still working on the idea that the workings of the pack altered after 2012? The pack saw its first 'crackopalypse ' event in the Feb following that year.

The whole pack is now a mesh of broken and refrozen together sub 3m ice.

come June we no longer see the 'June Cliff!' as the central basin ice sees the 'glue' holding it together melt out as temps near zero. What we have been seeing is June gains as the ice flow outward bolstering the peripheral areas ( temporarily?).

This year we now have a lot of ice all the same thickness on the verge of melt out. As you say the pacific and the ESS look like they are about to go.

Any large storm that hits the basin in mid Aug will be able to stir up swells throughout the basin ( unlike 2012 when the central ice held firm and damped out the swells that hammered the peripheral ice?) and we would see another million plus drop over a week?

With the last 2 days seeing JAXA drop 300 K I think that ice is beginning to fail?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
7 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Im still working on the idea that the workings of the pack altered after 2012? The pack saw its first 'crackopalypse ' event in the Feb following that year.

The whole pack is now a mesh of broken and refrozen together sub 3m ice.

come June we no longer see the 'June Cliff!' as the central basin ice sees the 'glue' holding it together melt out as temps near zero. What we have been seeing is June gains as the ice flow outward bolstering the peripheral areas ( temporarily?).

This year we now have a lot of ice all the same thickness on the verge of melt out. As you say the pacific and the ESS look like they are about to go.

Any large storm that hits the basin in mid Aug will be able to stir up swells throughout the basin ( unlike 2012 when the central ice held firm and damped out the swells that hammered the peripheral ice?) and we would see another million plus drop over a week?

With the last 2 days seeing JAXA drop 300 K I think that ice is beginning to fail?

A few points I would like to make on this post. 

A June cliff imo is not a thing of the past, we seen June cliffs in 2013 for example but the reason why we probably not seen a June cliff this year was down to the low ice extent to start off with coupled with chilly conditions where the ice was thinner in the Beaufort whereas the heat was more concentrated in the ESS where the ice was thicker so it despite the heat the ice will not give up so easily, If the heat hit the Beaufort then it would be a totally different story now. 

I don't think the ice in the ESS is all that poised to melt out quickly but the ice in the Beaufort is and I suspect the ice pack shape could resemble a shape similar to 2009/11/17 where you had an arm of ice in the Beaufort followed by a dip of open water and then an arm of ice stretching towards the ESS. Just how much ice there be by September will depend on weather patterns but at this early stage it does look like the final shape of the ice pack could be something like that. 

A large storm could well do damage to the pack but the shape of the pack at the moment does not suggest that ice will separate from the main pack like it did in 2012 but at this moment it's irrelevant to speculate at this stage as there is no deep lows on the forecast but stormy weather tends to increase after mid August as the PV shows first signs of trying to strengthen again so it's one to watch in 3 to 4 weeks time. 

I noticed a post by Neven on the Arctic sea ice forum that area has slowed down so compactness has gone up after a cliff from record highs to a brief record low(in data that is only 11 or so years old) so this suggests extent could slow down if weather conditions allow it to do so but it also suggests the CAB is more ice concentrated than it was in 2012 and other years which tells me a record low is unlikely and a 2016 finish of a very diffuse ice cover is not likely either. If I was to go for punt on the final extent I think a low on the Jaxa data of 4.60km is what I would go for. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Well it is make or break time for my observations regarding Beaufort/ESS.

The extreme heat advected over ESS as the first two big storms rolled into the basin has certainly done a number on the ice there but how much of that heat passed into the ocean there? The melt momentum is the unknown as if this is strong then no matter the weather the water the ice is sat in will melt it out anyway.

I also think that beaufort is near blink out and we know that the Pacific side has seen heat accumulate there over this melt season.

As I say the potential for around a 2 million loss over a couple of weeks is there should most of the ice be at a similar thickness now?

One thing that is clear to me is that we keep dodging the bullet and most all of the FY ice that makes it through to become second year ice will be very thin at the start of refreeze ( as it was last year and the year before) so the measure of ice age is a tad misleading with the bulk of the thickness of that ice , come melt season next year, will be grown over this coming winter. That means a thin skim of ice 'x' years old sat on top of a slab of FY ice ( and its melt characteristics).

some folk just see ice and extent/area measures but the basin is evolving , I think , toward a seasonal pack and that the recent changes to pack behaviour are a move toward this end with a pack incapable of surviving an 'average' melt season.

Any extreme melt /export summer will be a deal breaker and may empty the basin by early Aug of that melt season.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Interesting Research Article published in the last few days:

A stratospheric pathway linking a colder Siberia to Barents-Kara Sea sea ice loss

Abstract:
Previous studies have extensively investigated the impact of Arctic sea ice anomalies on the mid-latitude circulation and associated surface climate in winter. However, there is an ongoing scientific debate regarding whether and how sea ice retreat results in the observed cold anomaly over the adjacent continents. We present a robust “cold Siberia” pattern in the winter following sea ice loss over the Barents-Kara seas in late autumn in an advanced atmospheric general circulation model, with a well-resolved stratosphere. Additional targeted experiments reveal that the stratospheric response to sea ice forcing is crucial in the development of cold conditions over Siberia, indicating the dominant role of the stratospheric pathway compared with the direct response within the troposphere. In particular, the downward influence of the stratospheric circulation anomaly significantly intensifies the ridge near the Ural Mountains and the trough over East Asia. The persistently intensified ridge and trough favor more frequent cold air outbreaks and colder winters over Siberia. This finding has important implications for improving seasonal climate prediction of mid-latitude cold events. The results also suggest that the model performance in representing the stratosphere-troposphere coupling could be an important source of the discrepancy between recent studies.

Link to article: http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/7/eaat6025

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'd noted this but I'd also noted that it names just Barentsz and Kara?

Though we have not been seeing yearly records broken since 2012 what we have been seeing is 'new' areas ( apart from Barentsz/Kara) now becoming seasonal in their ice cover ( Chukchi/half of Beaufort, most of ESS) and if it took until 07' for the Atlantic 'ice free' areas to begin to show impact then maybe we should be seeing a change to the 'stuck weathers' some areas have seen since 07'?

For us this was the 'washout summers' we saw since 07' but I have seen these fade the last few years and this year a new 'stuck weather' pattern has imposed itself with the jet no longer troughing to our SW but ridging far to our north?

If the energy open water accumulates over summer is driving Jet anoms then the extra Ooomph from Beaufort/Chukchi/ESS may be behind the modulation in the jet pattern ( with the rockies always playing the role of pattern set up?) and so possibly meaning a run of such summer until we see even more areas become seasonally ice free and even more energy deposited in the atmosphere at summers end skewing the Jet further?

I tell you what you can say with great confidence. The formation of the polar night jet ( so know it as the polar vortex?) will be untimely ( late ) and its position well skewed from its 'normal', historical, positioning.

Should we be able to do such a thing as predict abnormal patterns in the polar night jet this far out?

Come back to me in late October and tell me how I have done!

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Big losses in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas coming over the next week or so. This is the area that looks on shaky ground now.

Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

All of the easy losses have melted out on this side of the cap, with quite a well defined ice-edge now.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Hi Reef!

If you take a lot at the 'solid blob' of ice on worldview you'll find it looking like the surface of a hand granade? If any swells arrive in the basin the removal of the ice now melting out will open this ice up to such swells and it will fragment along those existing fault lines.

If there is wind involved then you can see that shattered ice export into the now open ocean areas and so face nore severe bottom melt than they would as a central pack?

I think this is part of the evolution of the basin that we will eventually go ice free one year?

The first 'crackopalypse event followed on from the record low year of 2012. The ice was so thinly spread that it could not withstand the 'normal' forcings of wind current and tide.

This has continued each year so any remaining ice faces further fracture ( and re-cement) the following winter.

over time you evolve a pack that will readily collapse into small floes which have a very different melt mechanic than a solid , contiguous pack? So the same amount of energy that once left thin ice will then melt out completely?

If we do not see any return of the 'perfect melt storm' then , to me? it appears Mother N. is already working us toward average summers taking all of the ice?

 

 

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
On 28/07/2018 at 16:12, reef said:

Big losses in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas coming over the next week or so. This is the area that looks on shaky ground now.

Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

All of the easy losses have melted out on this side of the cap, with quite a well defined ice-edge now.

And that ice edge has got real potential to edge even further Northwards with perhaps one of the most compelling set ups I have seen, nothing unusual about the set up itself as a reverse dipole do occur but the warmth at upper air level is quite something with +10 uppers heading towards the pole via the fram straight. Could we see ice lifting away from parts of the Greenland coastline!? The wind flow looks potentially quite strong also at one point so the next 5 days or so will be one to watch around there. 

The impressive heatwave over Scandinavia is going to make its presence on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, that is climate change sadly. 

I said in me last post we could finish above 2017 but I'm not too sure now, the Atlantic side could well look similar to 2013 by September and the Pacific side is looking vulnable to say the least so can we rule out 2nd lowest on record just yet? 

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Zack Labe tweet today (30th July): Sea ice extent has dropped to a record low on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.

2070303301_ZackLabetweetrecordlowseaiceJuly2018.thumb.jpg.f1c82000b49f3c556483fcd23fc2a0c0.jpg

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1023956612443066369

 

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Next 2-4 weeks to challenge & possibly surpass 2012 in terms of record lows..

Also -I will be doing a post in Late Sept to highlight what effects the Kara / berings Ice loss have on our autumnal wind flows -

Infact October could be the month with the biggest net effects ( for the UK ) in terms of  ice loss induced climate change 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

This I found interesting. It is by 'sark' over on the A.S.I.F. and represents a reanalysis, month by month, of 2007 to 2017 Vs 1979 to 2000;

index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2278.0;attach=105927;image

It highlights how , at 2m , the Latent Heat of fusion pegs temps over the melt season and how solid ice allows the WAA to pass, unhindered into the Arctic outside of melt season?

Over summer the DMI80N is pegged to around freezing by this effect. When the ice above 80N is failing we would see this relationship with the Latent Heat of Fusion fail and the temps of the water below become reflected?

here is today's DMI80N

index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2278.0;attach=105912;image

 from the above are we now seeing the temps beginning to break the old pattern as the ice goes and open water begins to overpower the Latent Heat of Fusion?

Watch this space!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
On 05/08/2018 at 19:48, Steve Murr said:

Next 2-4 weeks to challenge & possibly surpass 2012 in terms of record lows..

Also -I will be doing a post in Late Sept to highlight what effects the Kara / berings Ice loss have on our autumnal wind flows -

Infact October could be the month with the biggest net effects ( for the UK ) in terms of  ice loss induced climate change 

Well it's going to be an interesting autumn season in Siberia as the laptev sea is well below average ice wise and running very warm indeed and could well have an affect just how north the ice edge heads to the pole from the laptev because at the moment with high pressure near by and lower pressure over the Barants sea there is a continioust supply of southerly winds going on at the moment and there is no real sign of that changing at the moment. If anything it could get worse if a deeper low comes into play as the models are sort of hinting at.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

The ice lifted of the North Shore of Greenland over recent days. If we do see any nasty lows then the ice will be easier to drive without any connection to land?

ESS also looks awful ( apart from a central 'spine' of good ice?) so any chop or waves will finish most of the ice real fast.

The DMI80N temp has continued to rise? 2016 did have a 'blip' ( up and down over a few days?) but that was another 'open pack year' ( Santa's Swimming Pool?).

Let us see what tomorrow bring us? If the Latent Heat of Fusion is now losing control over temps there then the heat flowing into Laptev could make quite a big blip Nullschool are showing 10c temps over Laptev a.t.m. so any of that could fuel a 2 or 3c rise in the DMI80N temp and we should all take note it being the first time such has happened in the record!

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

An excellent (but worrying) chart from Zack Labe showing the decreasing volume of Arctic sea ice each year in the three decades since the advent of satellite monitoring. The trend is clear to see.

754417413_ArcticSeaIceJulydecadelcomparison.thumb.jpg.2d42072bb460c4f94f376becf4bc0d94.jpg

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1027420787324608512

 

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