Will this summer be similar to the poor ones of the 1980s?

[Ice Man 85]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

What are you doing on a weather forum then

Seeing how long I can keep that pattern going

 

[mistyalbion]

1980's weren't too bad weatherwise, 83 was memorable, we had an awful spring, unseasonable bad weather in late May, thean when things broke in early June we had a good summer, it lasted till late sept if I remember right. 1984 and 1989 were also good years.

[stainesbloke]

It does amaze me that some people are moaning about a few warm and sunny days possible next week. After all the many weeks of grey, cold and wet crap we’ve suffered recently? It’s hardly going to be ‘uncomfortable’ and seeing some desperately needed sunshine will be lovely.

[Ice Man 85]

13 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

It does amaze me that some people are moaning about a few warm and sunny days possible next week. After all the many weeks of grey, cold and wet crap we’ve suffered recently? It’s hardly going to be ‘uncomfortable’ and seeing some desperately needed sunshine will be lovely.

Well if the ECM is right, 20/21 will be the peak (going from weather.us at least) and I can cope with that. The GFS is trying for mid 20s though and factoring in the likely humidity that will be in the air (when isn't iberian air humid?) then its feel uncomfortable to me.

[BruenSryan]

The outlooks for Summer 2018 are certainly not pretty. I've done many sorts of reanalysis charts for the season and barely any of them are pointing towards a good Summer. I even resorted to some ridiculous ones. I have looked at the following and these are the setups provided of all the Summers averaged into one reanalysis (which means you'll get Summers that differ obviously):

Summers following cold Marches - High pressure just to the northwest ridging over us allowing the jet stream on a northerly track and creating warm easterlies with a trough to the southeast of Europe. A nice reanalysis to start us off with here.

Summers ending in "8" - I think this is one that the majority are aware of by this stage but if you don't know already, there has not been a "good" Summer ending in the number "8" since 1868. Of course, you could make exceptions such as 1968 which was arguably good in the north and west though rather cool. Just even look at the recent examples of these Summers: 2008 - very wet especially August which was one of the dullest on record too. A fairly warm July and close to average June but both months were very wet too. 1998 - very wet and dull June. Very dull July. Decent August mind you with fairly mild and sunny conditions. 1988 - mainly settled and dry in June but very cold, wet and even stormy July with a rather indifferent poor August. The reanalysis perfectly captures the poor nature of these Summers as it shows very stubborn blocking over Greenland and the Arctic with a deep trough over us and the jet stream on a southerly track.

Summers following sunny Winters - Very similar to Summers ending in "8" with a trough over us and stubborn blocking up to the north. Perhaps the jet stream not on as much a southerly track though.

Summers with low solar activity following sunny Winters - Deep trough over us and blocking over Greenland/Arctic. I think you get the picture.......

Summers following wet Marches - low pressure everywhere, even Greenland and the Arctic! 

Summers following wet Aprils - Blocking up to the north with a trough over us and a southerly tracking jet stream. Are you seeing a theme here?

Summers following two years of La Nina which is then followed again by another La Nina event - Blocking up to the north with a trough down to the Bay of Biscay. However, the block is close enough to the British Isles for the jet stream to be on a northerly track and give us hot easterlies. The trough would allow for some thundery incursions. You can see that I was very desperate to finding a good reanalysis for Summer 2018 that I'd resort myself to a ridiculous far out there one like this.

Summers following years where January was the warmest month out of the first three of the year (using the CET) - Low pressure to the southwest and over the UK with blocking up to the north........ mmmmmmmmmm

Summers following cold Easters (using the CET). The 1981-2010 CET average for Easter (Good Friday to Easter Monday) is 8.07c so any Easter period below this average was considered for this reanalysis - Low pressure over the Arctic. Low pressure over the majority of Europe including us with a mid-Atlantic block. Awful chart!

Summers following sunny Februaries - Very southerly tracking jet stream with blocking up to the north and a trough over us. 

Summers following dull Marches - High pressure just out to the west ridging in across Ireland with low pressure over Greenland and Europe. The flow is from a northerly source. Cold reanalysis but not all that wet.

Summers following years with both a wet March and wet April in the same year - Deep low over Greenland which would usually indicate a positive NAO and in turn good for warmth. Trough in the Mediterranean which again usually good for warmth for us. But there are low heights over us with a mid-Atlantic block. These low heights are very weak allowing the jet on a bit of a northerly track. This is not far off a very good setup!

So there you have it. Those are all the ones I have done up to this point and it does not paint a good picture for the Summer! Hopefully Summer 2018 breaks the cycle of poor Summers ending in "8".

[stainesbloke]

7 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Well if the ECM is right, 20/21 will be the peak (going from weather.us at least) and I can cope with that. The GFS is trying for mid 20s though and factoring in the likely humidity that will be in the air (when isn't iberian air humid?) then its feel uncomfortable to me.

Mid 20’s might be reached for possibly one or two days in the SE. Then a cool down is likely. There are quite a few of us on here that are negatively affected by endless grey skies and damp cold. It doesn’t do me any good at all (hence the decision to move to Central Europe later this year). Whilst I wouldn’t want anyone to be uncomfortable, some warm sunshine would be amazing now. It has been truly dire here for many weeks.

[Sunny76]

I agree with Staines. 

We’ve had way too many days and weeks of endless dull, cold and damp conditions, with only a handful of warmish days(if you can call them that, last Friday and Saturday were the only examples), and this dreary theme has been in place on and off since last mid July. The terrible second half of summer 2017, followed by a dull and depressing autumn, with only a few spells of bright days. Winter overall delivered the cold and snow, in between some milder interludes, and although February was sunny, the lack of daylight(despite the days becoming gradually longer) didn’t benefit many, because of the cold and longer nights.

March is usually the time of year when our expectations turn to mild spring temps with more sun, and this hasn’t been the case for 2018. Actually, 2018 seems to be stuck in a prolonged winter. It has been depressing observing just how many people are still wearing hats and scarves, and this is coming from someone who lives in London.

The people on here who find 24 degrees uncomfortable, are the same folk who were commenting about sitting in the beer garden, when it was sunny and 5-8 degrees back in February, before it was snowing, when I thought it was still too cold to be dining or drinking outside. I don’t feel comfortable sitting outside until it’s at least into the mid teens, (12-14c), and even then I’ll be still wrapped up. Sitting in the beer garden with only a t-shirt doesn’t happen for me until we hit at least 18 or 19 degrees with sunshine. And if you factor in the breeze, I’ll still have a light jacket to hand. 

[B87]

GFS (Weatheronline) going for 27c next Thursday and 28c next Friday!

Wouldn't it be strange if we managed to break the April record of 29.4c, while also recording the cloudiest April on record? Have any months had similar quirks in the past?

The month that set that temperature record, April 1949, also came after a pretty terrible cold March which only averaged highs of 9c. That year had a mixed spring with a warmer April and cooler May, but then summer was good, with September in particular very warm.

Heathrow avg maxima:

Mar: 9c, Apr: 16c, May: 17c, Jun: 22c, Jul: 25c, Aug: 24c, Sep: 23c.

I'd accept the very cold and cloudy Feb-early April we've had so far if it gave us that summer.

Edited April 13, 2018 by B87

[Ice Man 85]

2 hours ago, B87 said:

GFS (Weatheronline) going for 27c next Thursday and 28c next Friday!

Wouldn't it be strange if we managed to break the April record of 29.4c, while also recording the cloudiest April on record? Have any months had similar quirks in the past?

The month that set that temperature record, April 1949, also came after a pretty terrible cold March which only averaged highs of 9c. That year had a mixed spring with a warmer April and cooler May, but then summer was good, with September in particular very warm.

Heathrow avg maxima:

Mar: 9c, Apr: 16c, May: 17c, Jun: 22c, Jul: 25c, Aug: 24c, Sep: 23c.

I'd accept the very cold and cloudy Feb-early April we've had so far if it gave us that summer.

Might want to look through the GEFS. Not a single member gets anywhere near that.

[B87]

On 13/04/2018 at 15:54, Ice Man 85 said:

Might want to look through the GEFS. Not a single member gets anywhere near that.

It has been downgraded but still looking like summer later in the week.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 27/03/2018 at 22:19, CreweCold said:

Well without looking at the analogues, I don't know so much.

I'm leaning towards more of a 2007-2012 type summer given where we are at in the solar cycle. Last year I went warmer than average so I'm certainly not hopecasting there.

Possibly early season warmth later April into May with a deterioration thereafter? We'll see.

Not looking a bad shout so far... Let's see where we head after May is out

[Ice Man 85]

Roll on october is all I can say. I am *really* trying to be "normal" but mid-high 20s as is being projected doesn't float my boat. To think there was hope that this "warm" spell would actually be tolerable in the low 20s. It is to laugh.

[Nick L]

On 12/04/2018 at 18:10, CreweCold said:

What are you doing on a weather forum then

I know this was a few weeks ago but it made me smile. Reminds me of a comment on this very forum by another member who was questioning why some of us are interested in seeing extreme weather by storm chasing. Erm...

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Roll on october is all I can say. I am *really* trying to be "normal" but mid-high 20s as is being projected doesn't float my boat. To think there was hope that this "warm" spell would actually be tolerable in the low 20s. It is to laugh.

Will you ever stop moaning?

[Ice Man 85]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Will you ever stop moaning?

Certainly. When the models stop turning what could have been nice weather into a humid heatfest.

[stainesbloke]

10 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Certainly. When the models stop turning what could have been nice weather into a humid heatfest.

Looks pleasant enough in your part of the UK, no heat at all, that’ll be further south. 

[bluearmy]

The background spring pattern of building sceuro heights and dropping the lw upper trough towards Iberia promises a typical British summer of three fine days and a thunderstorm! 

[stainesbloke]

5 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The background spring pattern of building sceuro heights and dropping the lw upper trough towards Iberia promises a typical British summer of three fine days and a thunderstorm! 

Which is fine if there isn’t 3 weeks of Atlantic crap in between each fine spell. Hopefully, high pressure can settle over us or just to the E for a good week at a time. 

[B87]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Which is fine if there isn’t 3 weeks of Atlantic crap in between each fine spell. Hopefully, high pressure can settle over us or just to the E for a good week at a time. 

Normally it was 3 weeks of partly cloudy or sunny 23-27c weather and 1 week of 20-21c rainy crap.

These days it seems to be 3.5 weeks of 20-22c and cloudy with a short heat spike of 30-33c thrown in.

Hopefully this summer will be more like a typical summer.

[Sky Full]

On 13 April 2018 at 01:04, BruenSryan said:

The outlooks for Summer 2018 are certainly not pretty. I've done many sorts of reanalysis charts for the season and barely any of them are pointing towards a good Summer. I even resorted to some ridiculous ones. I have looked at the following and these are the setups provided of all the Summers averaged into one reanalysis (which means you'll get Summers that differ obviously):

Summers following cold Marches - High pressure just to the northwest ridging over us allowing the jet stream on a northerly track and creating warm easterlies with a trough to the southeast of Europe. A nice reanalysis to start us off with here.

Summers ending in "8" - I think this is one that the majority are aware of by this stage but if you don't know already, there has not been a "good" Summer ending in the number "8" since 1868. Of course, you could make exceptions such as 1968 which was arguably good in the north and west though rather cool. Just even look at the recent examples of these Summers: 2008 - very wet especially August which was one of the dullest on record too. A fairly warm July and close to average June but both months were very wet too. 1998 - very wet and dull June. Very dull July. Decent August mind you with fairly mild and sunny conditions. 1988 - mainly settled and dry in June but very cold, wet and even stormy July with a rather indifferent poor August. The reanalysis perfectly captures the poor nature of these Summers as it shows very stubborn blocking over Greenland and the Arctic with a deep trough over us and the jet stream on a southerly track.

Summers following sunny Winters - Very similar to Summers ending in "8" with a trough over us and stubborn blocking up to the north. Perhaps the jet stream not on as much a southerly track though.

Summers with low solar activity following sunny Winters - Deep trough over us and blocking over Greenland/Arctic. I think you get the picture.......

Summers following wet Marches - low pressure everywhere, even Greenland and the Arctic! 

Summers following wet Aprils - Blocking up to the north with a trough over us and a southerly tracking jet stream. Are you seeing a theme here?

Summers following two years of La Nina which is then followed again by another La Nina event - Blocking up to the north with a trough down to the Bay of Biscay. However, the block is close enough to the British Isles for the jet stream to be on a northerly track and give us hot easterlies. The trough would allow for some thundery incursions. You can see that I was very desperate to finding a good reanalysis for Summer 2018 that I'd resort myself to a ridiculous far out there one like this.

Summers following years where January was the warmest month out of the first three of the year (using the CET) - Low pressure to the southwest and over the UK with blocking up to the north........ mmmmmmmmmm

Summers following cold Easters (using the CET). The 1981-2010 CET average for Easter (Good Friday to Easter Monday) is 8.07c so any Easter period below this average was considered for this reanalysis - Low pressure over the Arctic. Low pressure over the majority of Europe including us with a mid-Atlantic block. Awful chart!

Summers following sunny Februaries - Very southerly tracking jet stream with blocking up to the north and a trough over us. 

Summers following dull Marches - High pressure just out to the west ridging in across Ireland with low pressure over Greenland and Europe. The flow is from a northerly source. Cold reanalysis but not all that wet.

Summers following years with both a wet March and wet April in the same year - Deep low over Greenland which would usually indicate a positive NAO and in turn good for warmth. Trough in the Mediterranean which again usually good for warmth for us. But there are low heights over us with a mid-Atlantic block. These low heights are very weak allowing the jet on a bit of a northerly track. This is not far off a very good setup!

So there you have it. Those are all the ones I have done up to this point and it does not paint a good picture for the Summer! Hopefully Summer 2018 breaks the cycle of poor Summers ending in "8".

Hmmm...  That's all a bit worrying.  Makes you wonder how there were any years left for a good summer to occur?  Perhaps truly memorable summers have always been rare.  But then, one mans 'good summer' is another mans 'unbearable heat fest' so perhaps there could never be consensus on this definition.   

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Sky Full said:

Hmmm...  That's all a bit worrying.  Makes you wonder how there were any years left for a good summer to occur?  Perhaps truly memorable summers have always been rare.  But then, one mans 'good summer' is another mans 'unbearable heat fest' so perhaps there could never be consensus on this definition.   

I wouldn't worry too much SF - most, if not all, of the predictions will be wrong, anyway!

Edited May 3, 2018 by Ed Stone

[TJM14]

I think this summer will be similar to 2001 atm, nothing special. Just a guess

[B87]

7 minutes ago, TJM14 said:

I think this summer will be similar to 2001 atm, nothing special. Just a guess

I'd take that. A very average summer but will seem amazing compared to most we've had in the last decade.

[MP-R]

13 hours ago, TJM14 said:

I think this summer will be similar to 2001 atm, nothing special. Just a guess

That would be no bad thing. May and June were both good, the first week and final third of July was very warm and sunny, sometimes thundery, and August was never the same for more than a few days but often pleasant from what I remember. A good bank holiday weekend too!

[hillbilly]

23 hours ago, TJM14 said:

I think this summer will be similar to 2001 atm, nothing special. Just a guess

Quite decent here and an Autumn almost as good as the summer,i will take that thank you .