Will this summer be similar to the poor ones of the 1980s?

[cheeky_monkey]

10 minutes ago, B87 said:

Average temperatures with below average sunshine. Only 2013 and 2014 had anything like average sun (2013 exactly average and 2014 about 20 hours sunnier for the season).  The third sunniest summer since 2006 was 2015, with 100 hours below average.

I'd like an actual normal summer where May-Aug all get 200 hours with average temps. Obviously the warmer and sunnier the better.

2002 was sunnier than any summer since 2006 (exclusing 13/14), yet was itself cloudier than normal.

August 2014 and 2015 were both cool and very cloudy, 2014 especially. 2016 had the cloudiest June ever recorded (beating 2012). August 2016 was the best August since 2005, yet was still slightly cloudier than average with 201 hours at Heathrow. June 2017 had temperatures like a typical July, with exactly average sunshine.

yep as i remember pretty average

[weatherguru14]

What I find  amusing is the people that claim the summers a decade ago  were the "norm"  even though the last decade we've had a run of poor summers.The 60s had a poor run of summers apparently and the  80s. Yet  the best decade of weather.is what the climate is normally like.

[B87]

3 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

What I find  amusing is the people that claim the summers a decade ago  were the "norm"  even though the last decade we've had a run of poor summers.The 60s had a poor run of summers apparently and the  80s. Yet  the best decade of weather.is what the climate is normally like.

Well it is fact that the summers since 2006 have been far cloudier than the long term average. Temperatures haven't been an issue (though August in the last decade is over 1c cooler than the LTA), it's entirely the lack of sun that is the problem.

We are overdue a run of sunny summers, the last notable sunny summers were 2005 and 2003.

Edited April 11, 2018 by B87

[weatherguru14]

I agree on the lack of the sunshine. That's my biggest gripe about our climate. The constant grey clouds :(. hopefully the sun amounts will be higher this  time around :D.. I look at charts from 2006 and 2003.  and see how the hot weather and sunshine goes all the way to  highlands in Scotland.. One can hope 2018 will be less drab.

[cheeky_monkey]

Interestingly the the period 1981-2010 was slightly sunnier than the period 1961-1990..so when you look at average sunshine for summers you get different result depending on which background data you use.

[cheeky_monkey]

16 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Interestingly the the period 1981-2010 was slightly sunnier than the period 1961-1990..so when you look at average sunshine for summers you get different result depending on which background data you use.

so if i pick the 61-90 met office sunshine anomalies for the summers i was back in London it look like this..2014 Jun/above..Jul/above..Aug/ave...2015 Jun/above...Jul/ave..Aug/below..2016 Jun/below...Jul/ave..Aug/above.

and 2003 for reference...Jun/Ave..Jul/ave..Aug/above

Edited April 11, 2018 by cheeky_monkey

[weatherguru14]

I think that could do with the air mass. In cooler summers we have North Westerly airflow. But the days often start  very sunny and cloud builds up by midday to leave leaden skies by late/early evening. so the sun totals do accumulate over a season... But with a NW  the summer temperatures are often supressed.

[B87]

61-90 had some abnormally cool and cloudy summers. If you use the 71-00 period to remove those, recent summers are still cloudier than average.

August 2014 had 134 hours of sun at Heathrow, among top 5 cloudiest Augusts ever recorded. It certainly wasn't average (which even in the cloudiest 61-90 period would be around 190-200 hours).

Edited April 11, 2018 by B87

[cheeky_monkey]

6 hours ago, B87 said:

61-90 had some abnormally cool and cloudy summers. If you use the 71-00 period to remove those, recent summers are still cloudier than average.

August 2014 had 134 hours of sun at Heathrow, among top 5 cloudiest Augusts ever recorded. It certainly wasn't average (which even in the cloudiest 61-90 period would be around 190-200 hours).

not according to this

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GLOSEA April update is out for summer 2018

HP to the NE and quite troughy around the UK

It doesn't preclude the chance of a warm continental flow at times IMO...

[Evening thunder]

People in the Home Counties (and some other areas) shouldn't be too unhappy with the last 5 years based on these:

2017

Ok it was a little wetter in terms of rainfall totals (day of rain would be better but isn't available on seasonal maps)

2016

Ok it was a little duller than normal for the Home Counties

2015


2014

2013


Looks like an average set, and I have more reason to complain down here based on those sunshine maps, but summers haven't felt too bad since 2012 (though l didn't really like 2015).

August has often been a bit naff though which could affect the lasting impression of the summer, and harvest etc.

Of course I'm talking generally rather than one specific station which has apparently had a persistent duller anomaly for 13 years.. oddly enough since an equipment change 

Edited April 12, 2018 by Evening thunder

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, Evening thunder said:

People in the Home Counties (and some other areas) shouldn't be too unhappy with the last 5 years based on these:

...

Looks like an average set, and I have more reason to complain down here based on those sunshine maps, but summers haven't felt too bad since 2012 (though l didn't really like 2015).

August has often been a bit naff though which could affect the lasting impression of the summer, and harvest etc.

Of course I'm talking generally rather than one specific station which has apparently had a persistent duller anomaly for 13 years.. oddly enough since an equipment change 

 

Thanks. I spent four of the summers you mention in Essex (2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016), and the charts you post certainly match what I remember. My memories of 2013 especially are that of a long, hot, sunny summer. The rest weren't quite like 2013, but were by no means bad.

Even 2012 seemed decent in Essex.

I think people's expectations may have become unrealistic based on the summers of the 90s/early 00s; I wasn't even alive for a lot of that period and don't remember the rest in any real detail, so perhaps I expect less.

[B87]

Those maps are just generalised, and it is fact that Heathrow recorded 134 hours of sun in August 2014, which is nowhere near even 90% of the 61-90 average.

However, lookong at the stats for the south coast, the last few years have stayed around average, last June was even sunnier than average in Eastbourne.

Edited April 12, 2018 by B87

[cheeky_monkey]

4 hours ago, B87 said:

Those maps are just generalised, and it is fact that Heathrow recorded 134 hours of sun in August 2014, which is nowhere near even 90% of the 61-90 average.

However, lookong at the stats for the south coast, the last few years have stayed around average, last June was even sunnier than average in Eastbourne.

if found the sunshine records for Heathrow airport..August 2014..183.6 hrs

[reef]

On ‎05‎/‎04‎/‎2018 at 16:49, reef said:

Its been poor in recent years yes, but I think its the case that due to the 1989-2006 period being anomalously sunny in the summer months and that feeding fully into the latest average, things look much worse than they are. Indeed, using the Metoffice figures for sunshine hours at Heathrow in summer you get:

1961-1990: 579.8hrs
1971-2000: 603.1hrs
1981-2010: 608.7hrs 

The decadal averages are:

1960s: 559.7hrs
1970s: 585.7hrs
1980s: 584.5hrs
1990s: 647.4hrs
2000s: 597.6hrs
2010s: 534.2hrs

Certainly the summers since 2008 have been poor (as the 2010s decadal average reflects), but the 2007-2012 run of six dull summers is very similar indeed to the 1977-1982 period. The period 1961-1994 only saw 10 summers surpass the current 1981-2010 average, which is the same number as in the 1989-2006 period.

Basically its almost definitely a normal period of 'dull' summers, but seeming much worse due to the unusually sunny 1990s. I suspect the 1991-2020 average in a few years will be rather more similar to those preceding the 1981-2010 average as the sunny 1990s are balanced out by the duller 2010s.

As mentioned before, the 1990s were abnormally sunny and this skews the average significantly. The summers of the 2010s have been on average quite dull so far, but expecting 600 hours of sunshine per summer is almost always going to lead to disappointment. The 1990s had 6 summers with 600hours or more sun at Heathrow, but it only happened 16 times in the other 47 years. Basically they happen on about 1 in 3 summers and we've already had two since 2013.

The current period of duller summers is almost identical to the 1977-1988 period, which averaged just 19 hours per summer more than 2007-2017. If anything we've just reverted to 'normal'.

[B87]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

if found the sunshine records for Heathrow airport..August 2014..183.6 hrs

I got 2014 and 2015 mixed up, August 2015 had 134 hours. On the Met Office historic data page it is listed as 134.1 hours. Also on meteociel.

183 hours is still below average, and yet probably the 2nd or 3rd sunniest August since 2006.

http://www.meteociel.fr/climatologie/villes.php?code=3772&mois=8&annee=2015

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

14 hours ago, CreweCold said:

The GLOSEA April update is out for summer 2018

HP to the NE and quite troughy around the UK

It doesn't preclude the chance of a warm continental flow at times IMO...

then it will be a hot and dry summer

[Cheshire Freeze]

15 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

then it will be a hot and dry summer

Well it screams 'walking a tightrope' to me.

Could just as easily end up soaking wet and humid.

[Ice Man 85]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well it screams 'walking a tightrope' to me.

Could just as easily end up soaking wet and humid.

Humidity is guaranteed when we get muck from Iberia. As I've said before, a pleasant summer in the UK is impossible. By "pleasant" I mean dry, sunny and *average*. The thought of 28/16 days again is turning my stomach already.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Ice Man 85 said:

Humidity is guaranteed when we get muck from Iberia. As I've said before, a pleasant summer in the UK is impossible. By "pleasant" I mean dry, sunny and *average*. The thought of 28/16 days again is turning my stomach already.

I can deal with it to an extent if the trade off is repeated thundery outbreaks. I haven't seen a truly thundery summer for yonks!

[Ice Man 85]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I can deal with it to an extent if the trade off is repeated thundery outbreaks. I haven't seen a truly thundery summer for yonks!

I just resent it fullstop. Get an iberian flow laced with humidity and you can kiss goodbye to any semblance of comfort. The only time we can get high pressure in the UK without the temps soaring is in the winter months.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Ice Man 85 said:

I just resent it fullstop. Get an iberian flow laced with humidity and you can kiss goodbye to any semblance of comfort. The only time we can get high pressure in the UK without the temps soaring is in the winter months.

I detest hot and humid weather but first and foremost I'm an extreme weather enthusiast so some violent storms would take precedence over the discomfort of the accompanying conditions.

[Ice Man 85]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I detest hot and humid weather but first and foremost I'm an extreme weather enthusiast so some violent storms would take precedence over the discomfort of the accompanying conditions.

comfortable and boring all the way for me

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

comfortable and boring all the way for me

What are you doing on a weather forum then

[B87]

15 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Humidity is guaranteed when we get muck from Iberia. As I've said before, a pleasant summer in the UK is impossible. By "pleasant" I mean dry, sunny and *average*. The thought of 28/16 days again is turning my stomach already.

We get plenty of dry, sunny/partly cloudy and average temperature days in the London area. Most summer days have dewpoints around 13-15c with temperatures of 23-24c.