Will this summer be similar to the poor ones of the 1980s?

[Relativistic]

8 hours ago, - 40*C said:

July 2013 is the only month this decade with a CET of at least 18C which is very poor and shows the poorness of recent summers. Hopefully 2018 or 2019 will smash the July 2013, 18.3C CET.

Well given that, before this decade, there had only ever been 36 18C+ months in 35 decades of records, then having had only one such month in the current decade is par for the course.

Edited April 8, 2018 by Relativistic

[Nick L]

2 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Well given that, before this decade, there had only ever been 36 18C+ months in 35 decades of records, then having had only one such month in the current decade is par for the course.

Yep, as is often the case on this forum, an "average" summer is seen as poor.

[B87]

11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Yep, as is often the case on this forum, an "average" summer is seen as poor.

I'd happily take an average summer if it also had average sunshine. Something like 2001 at my location.

[cheese]

36 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Yep, as is often the case on this forum, an "average" summer is seen as poor.

I don't think an average summer is poor but I can understand why some people might think that - average UK summers are lukewarm at best, and it's more cloudy than sunny. Of course, if you want 'proper' summer weather you're going to have to move abroad to find it, but that isn't a realistic option for everyone.

It's like coldies on here would consider an average winter to be poor, because an average UK winter is far from snowy in any sense of the word.

Personally, I am content with an average summer. A typical day in July or August here would be 21C with sunny intervals, which is more than conductive to being outdoors (low 20s are probably ideal for outdoor exercise such as cycling or tennis imo).

Edited April 8, 2018 by cheese

[B87]

Exactly, I'd be happy with an average summer here (23-24c and partly cloudy, with a handful of days above 30c. Sunshine 200-220 hours and 6-8 wet days per month)

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Yep, as is often the case on this forum, an "average" summer is seen as poor.

I have to disagree a bit with this. Average summer conditions are not too shabby in my part of the UK, 22-24C with reasonable amounts of sunshine and 7-8 rain days each month. It’s the below average sunshine amounts that bother me the most, that’s been a feature of many a recent summer.

[Snowyowl9]

Bring on summer 2007 again crazy year.

[weatherguru14]

One thing ive noticed compared to last spring is the lack of wind.. It was very windy last year. In recent days its been very benign.

I hope these conditions persist.. means  it will give the UK a chance to slowly rise in temperature. When its windy nothing is settled in the sense we get one weather front pass through to be replaced by another and another. And over all we end  up with an unsettled  set up. We get todays weather in June and July it will be hot.

[hillbilly]

4 hours ago, Nick L said:

Yep, as is often the case on this forum, an "average" summer is seen as poor.

Yes like others I have to disagree here.I have farmed all my life since the early 70s and there has definitely been a marked lack of settled sunny spells in the period of July and August particularly in the last decade.

[Weather-history]

On 5 April 2018 at 22:06, Sunny76 said:

I think this summer might end up like 1982.  It followed a cold snowy December and January spell. The summer was warmer than 80 and 81, but still poor overall, with lots of thunderstorms, and some hot spells in June and July. 

There's no real connection. Winter 1981-82 effectively ended mid January. This winter has had a colder and snowier second half than that winter did and furthermore it has dragged on into March as well.

[B87]

What is everyone predicting for summer in your location?

For London I will have a random guess at a cool, wet and very cloudy summer (continuing the recent theme), but with a decent heatwave at some point, maybe a 5 day spell of 30c temps.

June
Av max: 21.9c
Av min: 12.5c
Rainfall: 30.0mm
Wet days: 7
Sun hours: 195

July
Av max: 22.7c
Av min: 14.0c
Rainfall: 65mm
Wet days: 10
Sun hours: 170

August
Av max: 22.0c
Av min: 13.5c
Rainfall: 80mm
Wet days: 12
Sun hours: 150

Edited April 9, 2018 by B87

[summer blizzard]

On 4/8/2018 at 08:21, Relativistic said:

Well given that, before this decade, there had only ever been 36 18C+ months in 35 decades of records, then having had only one such month in the current decade is par for the course.

Since 1950 the average was about 1 in 7 for the 1950-2010 period so it's actually normal. 

You have to remember that the 94-06 period was highly abnormal for having good summer months and that it's perfectly normal for an average summer to have one month below the average rather than a homogenous period. 

I will acknowledge that the number of poor months is above the norm this decade with 6 summer months below 1C of average albeit that was a feature of the 11-14 period.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Could this summer be in for a more Scandi blocking pattern? We are after all in a low solar region so with less sunspot activity and SST are more to near normal in the pacific I'm thinking there could be more blocking and heights rising in our favour.  

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, - 40*C said:

Could this summer be in for a more Scandi blocking pattern? We are after all in a low solar region so with less sunspot activity and SST are more to near normal in the pacific I'm thinking there could be more blocking and heights rising in our favour.  

Would be nice to see high pressure extending over to us from the east drawing up some Spanish plumes

Short term pain long term gain? 

[reef]

5 minutes ago, - 40*C said:

Could this summer be in for a more Scandi blocking pattern? We are after all in a low solar region so with less sunspot activity and SST are more to near normal in the pacific I'm thinking there could be more blocking and heights rising in our favour.  

Its a bit of a risky pattern though. If the blocking holds you can get something very dry, warm and sunny. On the other hand, after Scandi blocking early on you could get this sort of summer...

[cheeky_monkey]

On 4/8/2018 at 04:14, Nick L said:

Yep, as is often the case on this forum, an "average" summer is seen as poor.

True..unless its Hot and sunny in summer and Cold and snowy in winter then those seasons are then poor..some think our average climate should be Mediterranean in summer and Siberian in winter 

[weatherguru14]

I don't think its anything to do with people wanting hot summers and freezing cold winters. I think a settled sunny "week"  would be nice. a change being no 2 days have been the same in months.. Our climate is very active. But hes been way to active. constant change after change..Is it to much to ask for a gentle settled spell of weather this summer? or are we daring to ask to much.. Or is that complaining??

[Carl46Wrexham]

On 08/04/2018 at 14:51, Snowyowl9 said:

Bring on summer 2007 again crazy year.

Well you better get started on building arks then. River levels are high as it is, fields already flooded. Seen enough sodding rain already this year

 

[Sunny76]

Another 2007 or 2011, or 12 would be depressing. 2009 or 2010 wouldn’t be too bad, as these summers at least produced some warm to hot dry spells, in between the poorer periods.

[B87]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

True..unless its Hot and sunny in summer and Cold and snowy in winter then those seasons are then poor..some think our average climate should be Mediterranean in summer and Siberian in winter 

I've said time and time again, I would be happy with an average summer. Nobody seems to listen.

Even 2002 would be sunny compared to any of the recent summers, and that was quite poor here.

Edited April 10, 2018 by B87

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

21 hours ago, reef said:

Its a bit of a risky pattern though. If the blocking holds you can get something very dry, warm and sunny. On the other hand, after Scandi blocking early on you could get this sort of summer...

Bear in mind 2007 followed a really hot summer 2006 and warm winter.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

17 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

True..unless its Hot and sunny in summer and Cold and snowy in winter then those seasons are then poor..some think our average climate should be Mediterranean in summer and Siberian in winter 

A lot of people seem to have false memories of the weather being like that during their childhoods though, for some reason, with very distinct and contrasting seasons. I remember a few years back reading the book 'Cider with Rosie' by Laurie Lee, which was his childhood autobiography, growing up in the 1920s in the Cotswolds I believe. In there is a chapter describing the seasons during that period and he was trying to convey how back then the Winters were always very cold and snowy, whereas the Summers were always very dry, hot and sunny and how at the time of writing the book (in the late 50s) how the seasons just no longer stood up to how they were back then. I'm not sure about the Summers, but I was under the impression from the records that most Winters during the 1920s weren't particularly cold or snowy (although the Bonacina table ranks a few 1920s Winters down as snowy so I'm not so sure, although many are ranked little also) . One Christmas is described as snowy, when apparently according to the account a local man was unfortunately murdered in the snow. Judging by the Bonacina table this could have occurred during Christmas 1927, when apparently there was a blizzard in southern England on Christmas and Boxing Day. Although I do think he was trying to make out that Christmas was always snowy when he was growing up, which it wouldn't have been. It's a common habit for people though to trick themselves into believing that the weather conditions in one or two seasons in their distant past was the norm rather than the few and far between events they really were. I think when we grow up though (in the UK at least) we tend to notice how the seasons aren't so generally textbook most of the time and we therefore tend to start thinking that the seasons are more benign than back then, when in fact generally they're pretty similar (though there have been periods for a limited time when either cold Winters or hot Summers have been more prevalent than the norm for relatively brief periods), but many have simply forgotten or failed to notice.

 

[MP-R]

18 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

True..unless its Hot and sunny in summer and Cold and snowy in winter then those seasons are then poor..some think our average climate should be Mediterranean in summer and Siberian in winter 

Lol what a silly comment. I think most people would be happy with seasonable weather to be honest. Fine settled weather in summer and some snow in winter doesn't constitute a Mediterranean or Siberian climate 

[cheeky_monkey]

20 hours ago, B87 said:

I've said time and time again, I would be happy with an average summer. Nobody seems to listen.

Even 2002 would be sunny compared to any of the recent summers, and that was quite poor here.

most recent summers in London have been pretty average..in my experience neither 2014,15,or 16 where cool or wet save June 2016..which was pretty ropey.

[B87]

46 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

most recent summers in London have been pretty average..in my experience neither 2014,15,or 16 where cool or wet save June 2016..which was pretty ropey.

Average temperatures with below average sunshine. Only 2013 and 2014 had anything like average sun (2013 exactly average and 2014 about 20 hours sunnier for the season).  The third sunniest summer since 2006 was 2015, with 100 hours below average.

I'd like an actual normal summer where May-Aug all get 200 hours with average temps. Obviously the warmer and sunnier the better.

2002 was sunnier than any summer since 2006 (exclusing 13/14), yet was itself cloudier than normal.

August 2014 and 2015 were both cool and very cloudy, 2014 especially. 2016 had the cloudiest June ever recorded (beating 2012). August 2016 was the best August since 2005, yet was still slightly cloudier than average with 201 hours at Heathrow. June 2017 had temperatures like a typical July, with exactly average sunshine.

Even the abnormally cool and cloudy 1960s had more 200+ hour summer months than we have seen since August 2006!

Edited April 11, 2018 by B87