Will this summer be similar to the poor ones of the 1980s?

[Milhouse]

The bad thing is we dont know really how poor a summer month can be when you consider how far you have to go back for a truly dire June, July or August. But anyway, im positive for this year that it will be another pretty average one which means a good amount of dry and usable weather. I nice heatwave would suit me just fine too

[B87]

There have been plenty of absolute shocking summer months in the last decade or so, at least in the London area.

June 2012 and 2016 are the 2 cloudiest Junes on record.

July 2007 didn't get above 24c all month! Something like 1 day average or above. July 2012 was just as bad.

August hasn't seen sunshine at average or above since 2005 (even 2016 only had 98% here). In 2008 it was duller than February! Infact August 08 and 10 were 2nd and 3rd cloudiest on record, only 1954 was cloudier! In the last decade the average highs have also been 1c below the long term average.

Something like 4 summer months since August 2006 have had above average sun hours (Jun 10, Jul 13, Jun/Jul 14, with 1 average (Jun 17), and 2 very close to average (Jun 08 and Aug 16).

The 3rd sunniest year since 2006 was 2015, with 1540 hours (that's 100 hours below average, and that was among the sunniest)!

Edited April 5, 2018 by B87

[reef]

2 hours ago, B87 said:

There have been plenty of absolute shocking summer months in the last decade or so, at least in the London area.

June 2012 and 2016 are the 2 cloudiest Junes on record.

July 2007 didn't get above 24c all month! Something like 1 day average or above. July 2012 was just as bad.

August hasn't seen sunshine at average or above since 2005 (even 2016 only had 98% here). In 2008 it was duller than February! Infact August 08 and 10 were 2nd and 3rd cloudiest on record, only 1954 was cloudier! In the last decade the average highs have also been 1c below the long term average.

Something like 4 summer months since August 2006 have had above average sun hours (Jun 10, Jul 13, Jun/Jul 14, with 1 average (Jun 17), and 2 very close to average (Jun 08 and Aug 16).

The 3rd sunniest year since 2006 was 2015, with 1540 hours (that's 100 hours below average, and that was among the sunniest)!

Its been poor in recent years yes, but I think its the case that due to the 1989-2006 period being anomalously sunny in the summer months and that feeding fully into the latest average, things look much worse than they are. Indeed, using the Metoffice figures for sunshine hours at Heathrow in summer you get:

1961-1990: 579.8hrs
1971-2000: 603.1hrs
1981-2010: 608.7hrs 

The decadal averages are:

1960s: 559.7hrs
1970s: 585.7hrs
1980s: 584.5hrs
1990s: 647.4hrs
2000s: 597.6hrs
2010s: 534.2hrs

Certainly the summers since 2008 have been poor (as the 2010s decadal average reflects), but the 2007-2012 run of six dull summers is very similar indeed to the 1977-1982 period. The period 1961-1994 only saw 10 summers surpass the current 1981-2010 average, which is the same number as in the 1989-2006 period.

Basically its almost definitely a normal period of 'dull' summers, but seeming much worse due to the unusually sunny 1990s. I suspect the 1991-2020 average in a few years will be rather more similar to those preceding the 1981-2010 average as the sunny 1990s are balanced out by the duller 2010s.

[B87]

Hopefully this run of dull summers will end soon, and we get a return to something more normal, or even a run of sunny summers.  The years between 1997-2006 were pretty normal, sunshine-wise. It was the early and mid 90s that were very sunny.

[cheese]

6 hours ago, reef said:

August hasn't been that bad everywhere in recent years. There hasn't been any very hot ones, but several have been drier, sunnier and warmer than average.

Certainly here, 2009, 2013 and 2016 all produced Augusts that were drier, sunnier and warmer than average. August 2007 was about average temperature-wise, but was very dry and sunny which was very welcome after that awful June and July.

It has certainly stood out for lack of hot days though, we haven't hit above 27.0C since August 2007. Nevertheless, most Augusts since 2007 have had plenty of warm, pleasant days into the low 20s. Even 2012 in that dire summer managed 23 out of 31 days with a temperature above 20C. Last August was similar, with 24 out of 31 days hitting 20C or more. I struggle to call months like that poor when you have examples like 1986 when it only reached 20C four times all month!

 

The August's of 2007, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2017 were all average to above average temperature-wise here. I know 2017 was sunnier than average, and I believe 2007 was too, but I'm not sure on the other ones. 2017 was also wetter than average though, and on the morning of the 23rd we had a thunderstorm that lasted for hours, causing local flash flooding (but the afternoon was partly cloudy with a high of 22C).

Edited April 5, 2018 by cheese

[B87]

21 minutes ago, cheese said:

The August's of 2007, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2017 were all average to above average temperature-wise here. I know 2017 was sunnier than average, and I believe 2007 was too, but I'm not sure on the other ones. 2017 was also wetter than average though, and on the morning of the 23rd we had a thunderstorm that lasted for hours, causing local flash flooding (but the afternoon was partly cloudy with a high of 22C).

Very different to here.

2007: cool, cloudy

2009: average, very cloudy

2012: average, cloudy

2013: warm, cloudy

2015: cool, very cloudy

2016: warm, average sunshine

2017: cool, very cloudy

[weatherguru14]

Stats can be misleading on how you perceive  a summer month  by personal observation.. Ie the stats can say June was above average temperature wise. But in that June ,say like last year  places saw 30c on several days. It was warmer than average .And the stats could say on  8 days of June we had 13 hours of sunshine.. Taking the  sun total amounts above the long term June average. But from my personal observation after the  first week and half of June 2017  it rained  every day for almost 3 weeks. So in essence it was a poor summer month. Now 2009 and 2010. May not  be over all as sunny or has warm as June 2017  but  they were better months over all summer wise. Just using last June as an example. Not really comparing 2010 and 2017.. Just trying to show from your own perspective..

[cheese]

6 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

Stats can be misleading on how you perceive  a summer month  by personal observation.. Ie the stats can say June was above average temperature wise. But in that June ,say like last year  places saw 30c on several days. It was warmer than average .And the stats could say on  8 days of June we had 13 hours of sunshine.. Taking the  sun total amounts above the long term June average. But from my personal observation after the  first week and half of June 2017  it rained  every day for almost 3 weeks. So in essence it was a poor summer month. Now 2009 and 2010. May not  be over all as sunny or has warm as June 2017  but  they were better months over all summer wise. Just using last June as an example. Not really comparing 2010 and 2017.. Just trying to show from your own perspective..

And people's personal observations can be very misleading too - and I'm not likely to trust personal observations over certifiable data. 

And the total amount of rainfall is much less relevant than rain days. For example, August 2017 was wet, but the number of rain days was average (around 9), and sunshine was above average so to me that constitutes a perfectly decent summer month. It certainly didn't rain every day for almost 3 weeks.

July wasn't too different either, though the number of rain days was higher (around 10), but sunshine was still average. At the very least 2017 was an okay summer - and by okay I mean it was close to average mostly. I don't mind lots of rain as long as there's a reasonable amount of sunshine too, and if that rain is in the form of downpours and thunderstorms then even better.

Edited April 5, 2018 by cheese

[weatherguru14]

6 minutes ago, cheese said:

And people's personal observations can be very misleading too - and I'm not likely to trust personal observations over certifiable data. 

And the total amount of rainfall is much less relevant than rain days. For example, August 2017 was wet, but the number of rain days was average (around 9), and sunshine was above average so to me that constitutes a perfectly decent summer month. It certainly didn't rain every day for almost 3 weeks.

July wasn't too different either, though the number of rain days was higher (around 10), but sunshine was still average. At the very least 2017 was an okay summer - and by okay I mean it was close to average mostly. I don't mind lots of rain as long as there's a reasonable amount of sunshine too, and if that rain is in the form of downpours and thunderstorms then even better.

I was on about June  2017 please read carefully!. August was poor unlike 2016.. You don't have to take a persons observation into it.if you don't wish too.. I have mentioned how stats can be misleading. Its like batsman in cricket.. They can  get  200 in one innings and  get low scores for the next  5 games and still average nearly 40.

2017 was a poor summer. Its just you wanting to ,make Leeds weather appear to be something its not. 2016 was a much better summer. Now  no doubt you will find some stat that backs it up 2017 comparing it with 2016.

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, B87 said:

Very different to here.

2007: cool, cloudy

2009: average, very cloudy

2012: average, cloudy

2013: warm, cloudy

2015: cool, very cloudy

2016: warm, average sunshine

2017: cool, very cloudy

2016 was the best August of this decade here for sunshine and warmth. A lovely month in the ENe 

[Matthew.]

55 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

.2017 was a poor summer. Its just you wanting to ,make Leeds weather appear to be something its not. 2016 was a much better summer. Now  no doubt you will find some stat that backs it up 2017 comparing it with 2016.

Yes agree 2016 was the 3rd best summer of the decade here. If I was to rank-

2013, 2014, 2016, 2010, 2017, 2015, 2011, 2012

[B87]

3 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Yes agree 2016 was the 3rd best summer of the decade here. If I was to rank-

2013, 2014, 2016, 2010, 2017, 2015, 2011, 2012

I'd put 2010 ahead of 2016, but otherwise the same here. 

[stainesbloke]

August last year was pretty dire here, endless cloud, drizzle, wind and cool temperatures. June, however, was fabulous. July was pretty good until the notable thunderstorm outbreak of the night of the18th, which ushered in Atlantic crap for weeks on end. Hopefully a sunnier summer this year, that’s personally a very important factor.

[Sunny76]

9 hours ago, Azazel said:

The 2nd half of last summer was dire. I remember getting home and taking a sweet photo of those incoming thunderstorms in July and then it reverted to drab right up until this very day.

 

August has been utter balls since 2003 and is often bettered by September. August is also when i get my first autumn prangs.

I still stand by my word, when I mentioned the fact that since the mid July storms of 2017, temperatures overall have been on the cooler side. Apart from the mini hot spell in late August and some warmish days in September and early to mid October, the trend has been on the cooler side. And I did predict that this would or could lead us into the return of colder snowy winters, much like the 2007-12 era, or 1980s. 

I have a feeling as we move through 2018, we’ll be seeing a few more months below average or just close to the average. If we have another coldish winter, or cold second half into 2019, then it’s probably safe to say we are entering a new cold phase, which unfortunately provides poorer summers. 

The last half decent August was 2013, but I guess it depends where you live. For London it was arguably the best one since 2003. 2009 and 2016 had some sunny and warm days, but also far too many days with cloud. 

[B87]

August 2016 was warmer and sunnier than August 2013 in London. August 2009 was the coolest and cloudiest of the 3. All of them had below average sunshine at Heathrow.

[Sunny76]

Funny how I remember 2013 having the better August, maybe because it followed a hot and sunny July, which clouds my perception of the summer overall. 

2009 started off well and June was the best month, but July 2009 was dire and August was just ok, from what how I remember it.

2016 again, was another drab summer, dull and coolish June mixed with humid cloudy days, and July wasn’t much better. August was the best part of that summer, but for some reason it hasn’t stuck in memory as anything special. 

[Sunny76]

I think this summer might end up like 1982.  It followed a cold snowy December and January spell. The summer was warmer than 80 and 81, but still poor overall, with lots of thunderstorms, and some hot spells in June and July. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

On ‎03‎/‎04‎/‎2018 at 20:59, cheese said:

It reaches 30C in Leeds more years than not. Since the turn of the century, it reached 30C in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2017. I believe the lowest max yearly temperature this century was 27C in 2012, which was a truly appalling summer and probably the worst I have experienced (being 30 I missed the horrible 80s summers and mostly experienced average to above average summers throughout my childhood and teenage years).

Lucky Leeds. Manchester must be the coldest city in England due to its westerly location, 30C hardly gets touched and when its boiling 32C in London, Manchester can be lacking at around 26C. 1990, 1995, 2003,, 2006, 2013, 2015 & 2016 are the years I recall of experiencing 30C or above, 1990 and 2006 were spectacular as we managed around 35C in the city.  2015 was exceptional hitting 30C under all the cloud. Had it been cloudless I think 33 or 34 would've been achieved.    2003 was nothing special for Manchester either apart from 9th August mainly due to cloud.

Edited April 6, 2018 by - 40*C

[Badgers01]

11 hours ago, - 40*C said:

Lucky Leeds. Manchester must be the coldest city in England due to its westerly location, 30C hardly gets touched and when its boiling 32C in London, Manchester can be lacking at around 26C. 1990, 1995, 2003,, 2006, 2013, 2015 & 2016 are the years I recall of experiencing 30C or above, 1990 and 2006 were spectacular as we managed around 35C in the city.  2015 was exceptional hitting 30C under all the cloud. Had it been cloudless I think 33 or 34 would've been achieved.    2003 was nothing special for Manchester either apart from 9th August mainly due to cloud.

having lived in both Manny and London summer really highlights the stark difference in climate between the 2 , summers can bet really poor in Mcr last year it was perpetual autumn from early July !!

[Relativistic]

12 hours ago, - 40*C said:

Lucky Leeds. Manchester must be the coldest city in England due to its westerly location, 30C hardly gets touched and when its boiling 32C in London, Manchester can be lacking at around 26C. 1990, 1995, 2003,, 2006, 2013, 2015 & 2016 are the years I recall of experiencing 30C or above, 1990 and 2006 were spectacular as we managed around 35C in the city.  2015 was exceptional hitting 30C under all the cloud. Had it been cloudless I think 33 or 34 would've been achieved.    2003 was nothing special for Manchester either apart from 9th August mainly due to cloud.

Wow, my memory for weather only goes back to around 2011, but I can't remember any of the summers (in Essex) since and including then not reaching 30C at some stage. Would be very notable if it didn't occur. If memory serves me correctly then I think even 2012 hit 28C in all of late May, late June, late July, August, and possibly early September too.

Anyone know the last year when 30C wasn't reached anywhere in the UK?

[LetItSnow!]

13 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Wow, my memory for weather only goes back to around 2011, but I can't remember any of the summers (in Essex) since and including then not reaching 30C at some stage. Would be very notable if it didn't occur. If memory serves me correctly then I think even 2012 hit 28C in all of late May, late June, late July, August, and possibly early September too.

Anyone know the last year when 30C wasn't reached anywhere in the UK?

According to Trevor Harley that would be 1993, which only reached 29.7 on 4th July, and before that 1981 which reached 29.5 on 5th Aug. 

Also I thought I'd add all the years that failed to reach 30 during the 20th century. Notice how more frequently we didn't manage to reach it apart from a very long stretch throughout 1931-1958.

1980, 1978, 1974, 1971, 1966, 1963, 1962, 1958, 1931, 1927, 1920, 1913, 1910.

[hillbilly]

Like I have said before I was brought up working on farms and base summers on how good the weather is to make hay.Since this subject is about 80s summers I shall rate each as I remember out of 10

1980 5/10

1981 6/10

1982 7/10

1983 81/2 /10

1984 9/10

1985 3/10

1986 3/1

1987 4/10

1988 4/10

1989 9/10      I shall reserve 10/10 only for 1995

What I would also say is that  the exception of 1995 no summer since has bettered either 1983,1984 or 1989 in these hills anyway [2006 and 2003 may be close on  par but not bettered]

 

[Evening thunder]

Talking about 30C, as I'm 3 miles from the south coast it hasn't reached 30C at all here in my 10 years of records. I've had 29.2C twice (July 2013 and June 2017). A few miles further inland got 30/31C though and it has happened here before on occasion.

All years have given 26C+ here apart from 2015 which didn't reach 25C! That year the 30th June gave 24.7C with a wind off the sea, and the 1st July gave 24.5C in a brief sunny interval as the hot plume was shifting east (When Heathrow got the July record).

However, it was 23.7C at about 3am! and here's a quirk, a nearby station on a hillside recorded its highest temperature of the whole year at about 3am!

As for last summer I thought the first half was decent here with more 25C+ days than many recent years managed, but variable with cooler/wetter days too.

[parrotingfantasist]

The Summer here was going good (June and May were fabulous) until a Spanish plume came and flooded the whole NW in the middle of August.

Edited April 7, 2018 by parrotingfantasist

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

July 2013 is the only month this decade with a CET of at least 18C which is very poor and shows the poorness of recent summers. Hopefully 2018 or 2019 will smash the July 2013, 18.3C CET.