Will this summer be similar to the poor ones of the 1980s?

[MP-R]

I've said it before but I always find August is very much a 'meh' month these days that alters the overall theme of many summers. If it's been a good summer in June and July, August and its mediocrity come along and lower the tone e.g. last year. That said, if it's been poor, August raises the tone e.g. 1998 or 2007. 

I actually thought August was the best summer month of 2016.

[Badgers01]

6 hours ago, MP-R said:

I've said it before but I always find August is very much a 'meh' month these days that alters the overall theme of many summers. If it's been a good summer in June and July, August and its mediocrity come along and lower the tone e.g. last year. That said, if it's been poor, August raises the tone e.g. 1998 or 2007. 

I actually thought August was the best summer month of 2016.

I like your point about August equilibrating summers - it often feels like a reminder that autumn is coming and September the reverse that summer is hanging on ...

[Sunny76]

August is a mix of summer still hanging on, and the early indications of autumn approaching. 

I hope this year will provide us with a decent August with some hot days and maybe some thunderstorms.

[cheeky_monkey]

15 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

97 shouldn’t be even mentioned in the same paragraph as a good summer. It was hot in the August for a little while, but all I remember was some humid and cloudy periods during June and July and lots of damp weather. It certainly wasn’t a classic summer. 

 

1997 wasn't a classic summer true but to say August was hot for a little while is an understatement...August 1997 was the 2nd hottest on record only surpassed by August 1995

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

1997 wasn't a classic summer true but to say August was hot for a little while is an understatement...August 1997 was the 2nd hottest on record only surpassed by August 1995

It was very smoggy and still dull in parts. It may have been hot, but I still rate 1995, 2003, 2013, 89, 90, 83 and 84 as sunnier and for having better Augusts

[Weather-history]

4 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

It was very smoggy and still dull in parts. It may have been hot, but I still rate 1995, 2003, 2013, 89, 90, 83 and 84 as sunnier and for having better Augusts

Another factor, it was wetter than average for England and Wales, which is probably why it has never really stuck in my memory. 

August 1998, for England and Wales, was sunnier and drier than August 1997.

August 2014 which is generally remembered as a poor August was actually touch sunnier than August 1997

Edited March 23, 2018 by Weather-history

[hillbilly]

25 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Another factor, it was wetter than average for England and Wales, which is probably why it has never really stuck in my memory. 

August 1998, for England and Wales, was sunnier and drier than August 1997.

August 2014 which is generally remembered as a poor August was actually touch sunnier than August 1997

just looked at my nearest met office station for data and added 1997 and 1998 to Sunny's post.

In order Sunniest 1995,89,83,03,97,84,13,90,98

  warmest 1995,97,03,84,90,83,13,89,98

Statistics are also very good at hiding how a month really feels.Sunshine levels certainly don't show cloudy afternoons or showers during the day and temperatures certainly in recent years have been high due to night time temperatures. If I look at the last few summers of 2014 up to last year ,they have great sunshine levels but I have described all as disappointing .

[Philipsfd]

In fairness I think there was a bit of a north-south divide in August '98. It was dry and reasonably sunny throughout most of the country but I think the Midlands and the South got the best of it - and in places it was very sunny and very dry. 

Similarly, the August of 2009 was a very warm month in the south east with fairly consistent mid-high 20s max daily temperatures; it was less so in the north. August 2009 is a little underrated at least for the heat it brought. In fact if you measure that summer as 21st June to 21st September then I'd say it was comfortably the best of the 2007-2012 era.

Edited March 23, 2018 by Philipsfd

[Cheshire Freeze]

I don't know about THIS summer per se (though I suspect wetter than average) but I would wager that over the next 10-15 years we'll see the 'perfect storm' scenario where we get a cold winter, cold spring, cool summer and then into autumn. I believe it's referred to as a 'year with no summer'.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I don't know about THIS summer per se (though I suspect wetter than average) but I would wager that over the next 10-15 years we'll see the 'perfect storm' scenario where we get a cold winter, cold spring, cool summer and then into autumn. I believe it's referred to as a 'year with no summer'.

Well that just sounds depressing 

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, The East has Ceased said:

Well that just sounds depressing 

Not expecting Salinas to be crap this summer 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, The East has Ceased said:

Well that just sounds depressing 

Depends on your perspective. Though I quite like the thought of quirks like that. 

2007 was one of the best summers I've ever experienced personally. Dynamic convective rain events, thunder and some late drier and warmer weather. A welcome relief from the stifling summers of 2003 and 2006.

[Mokidugway]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Depends on your perspective. Though I quite like the thought of quirks like that. 

2007 was one of the best summers I've ever experienced personally. Dynamic convective rain events, thunder and some late drier and warmer weather. A welcome relief from the stifling summers of 2003 and 2006.

Aaron it is definitely depressing , think you  need a curly wurly.....

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Aaron it is definitely depressing , think you  need a curly wurly.....

Certainly wasn't depressing for me. I could walk around without being drenched in sweat, prefer being drenched in torrential rain to that. I could also sleep at night too. It was a top summer. Each to their own I guess.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

I am sure the 13 deaths and 6.5 billion in damage was a bit depressing 

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Certainly wasn't depressing for me. I could walk around without being drenched in sweat, prefer being drenched in torrential rain to that. I could also sleep at night too. It was a top summer. Each to their own I guess.

Never get that sweaty ,what are you up too 

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, The East has Ceased said:

I am sure the 13 deaths and 6.5 billion in damage was a bit depressing 

Major improvements in Jaywick then 

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

4 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Major improvements in Jaywick then 

Jaywick would be have to be totally destroyed a few thousand times before there can be that amount of damage done 

[Polar Gael]

1983 and 1984 were great summers in central Scotland, but they were the exception, rather than the norm. 

Would love a repeat of summer 2013, which came along after the last time we had a notably prolonged winter (in Scotland).  

[Walsall Wood Snow]

On 23/03/2018 at 22:03, CreweCold said:

I don't know about THIS summer per se (though I suspect wetter than average) but I would wager that over the next 10-15 years we'll see the 'perfect storm' scenario where we get a cold winter, cold spring, cool summer and then into autumn. I believe it's referred to as a 'year with no summer'.

I too wouldn't mind that too much as I'm defiantly one of those that prefer my Winters to be seasonal than my Summers and it seems to me in the British Isles at least more often than not you get either one or the other I.e that colder Winters are more likely during periods of cooler Summers and milder Winters are more likely during periods of warmer ones. That's not always the case of course as 1984 and 1995 are two years that come to mind as years with warm Summers followed by cold Winters. Also the famously hot Summer of 1976 was actually followed by the first colder Winter in about 6 years (which kind of annoys me that a lot of people seem to falsely remember the 70s as being a cold Winter decade, when in fact it was only really the end of the decade that provided them, going by the stats anyway). But taking say the 60s and 80s generally there were more cold Winters in those decades while most Summers tended to be cooler affairs. Then in the 90s and 00s Summers were generally warmer and Winters milder so it seems (despite a few odd exceptions) we tend to get either one or the other main seasonal season rather than both. Of course it would be nice to get the best of both worlds and for every season to be of a textbook type but if you want that you'd have to live in Canada or parts of the north east USA to get much chance of that on a annual basis.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

its been a poor spring so far and poor springs can churn out decent summers. 1983 for one, 1995 and 1997 aswell. But long range modelling is keen on a poor summer this year again similar to last year with June being the best month.  

[Walsall Wood Snow]

25 minutes ago, - 40*C said:

its been a poor spring so far and poor springs can churn out decent summers. 1983 for one, 1995 and 1997 aswell. But long range modelling is keen on a poor summer this year again similar to last year with June being the best month.  

I wouldn't really take too much notice of what the long range models think at this stage. I remember a couple of times that BBQ Summers have been predicted only for it turn out pretty grey and wet. I've also heard that apparently Summer is an even harder season to predict for at long range than Winter for some reason, so at this stage I think we could expect anything really.

[weatherguru14]

You can almost guarantee certain members of this forum. Posting Charts for 2 weeks in advance showing summer weather for it only to change the next time the models are updated and this member will repeat this for the next  5 months. over and over again.

Long range forecasting  and predictions when it comes to the summer in particular ,is pointless. Because its not possible to predict weather  far head in this country  

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Starting to see some alignment in the further reaches of the GFS now for what the GLOSEA was hinting for Apr/May/Jun... i.e HP becoming dominant to our E

This is something I would look for in March/April in terms of deciding where we may go further towards summer, as recently we have seen such spells followed by summer deluges. Funnily enough this is where the GLOSEA leads us further into summer...

Hints on the geopotential heights anomaly that a UK trough may be the main player

The main troughing on our latitude, and it's over the UK

Suits me just fine if this is the case  Think of the diurnal convective potential...drool!

Edited March 27, 2018 by CreweCold

[cheese]

You're a sadist, aren't you?