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Will this summer be similar to the poor ones of the 1980s?

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Despite recent mild days, the cold has always been a regular feature throughout March this year, and this looks set to continue into early April. 

My question is, are we looking at potentially a poor summer, in terms of colder than average temps, and less sunshine, but with some humid weather with storms in the mix.

A summer similar to 1980 or 81 would be a nightmare. On the storm front though, it could be a positive.

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This year's pattern up to now is similar to that of winter 1963, with winter dragging on to late April.  There were wintry showers on my birthday, 21st April.  May saw a fortnight's heatwave with crystal blue skies but the following summer was indifferent.  This was followed by a truly golden autumn with weather mild enough to be topless out in the playing fields during PE (I was a schoolkid then).

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10 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

This was followed by a truly golden autumn with weather mild enough to be topless out in the playing fields during PE (I was a schoolkid then).

When you were a a school kid! Have they got weather records that go that far back!:)

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6 minutes ago, markyo said:

When you were a a school kid! Have they got weather records that go that far back!:)

Yes,  Wetterzentrale have re-analysed 1963 and they go further back.  Here's the chart from the 20th April 1963, near the end of  that awful winter (Spring arrived during the last week of April). 

NOAA_1_1963042012_1.png

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I'm hoping for the opposite, the last cold March was 2013 and that was a decent summer, first for a number of years up here. Does anyone know how the background signals compare to 2013? 

I'm getting married in early June so as long as it's warm and dry for then I'm happy! 

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Will this summer be similar to the poor ones of the 1980s?

Hopefully......

 

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Posted (edited)

I would have said more like 1962 rather than 1963. 1962 had a really cold March which started at the back end of February. 

I actually think more recent bad summers have been generally worse overall than the poor summers of the 1980s. Only recall 1984 onwards though.

2007, 2008 and 2012 were rank. 1987 was closest to being as bad  but 2012 was a shocker. 

Edited by Weather-history

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

Yes,  Wetterzentrale have re-analysed 1963 and they go further back.  Here's the chart from the 20th April 1963, near the end of  that awful winter (Spring arrived during the last week of April). 

NOAA_1_1963042012_1.png

I don't see how you got wintry showers with that chart. Looks more like rain crossing the country.

Look at the uppers

NOAA_1_1963042018_2.png

?

Also winter 1963 effectively ending in the first week of March. March 1963 had a CET of 6.0, no way that March could be described as cold overall especially it came after a sub-zero February, it would have felt positively balmy after two and a bit months in the freezer. London got to 17C on the 6th March 1963, I don't think London has recorded above 16C this year thus far.

 

Edited by Weather-history
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the 80's overall had 3 good summers 83,84 &89 which were pretty good nation-wide at times..... 85,86,87 and 88 were all pretty poor in-between the good ones though!

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40 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I don't see how you got wintry showers with that chart. Looks more like rain crossing the country.

Look at the uppers

NOAA_1_1963042018_2.png

?

Also winter 1963 effectively ending in the first week of March. March 1963 had a CET of 6.0, no way that March could be described as cold overall especially it came after a sub-zero February, it would have felt positively balmy after two and a bit months in the freezer. London got to 17C on the 6th March 1963, I don't think London has recorded above 16C this year thus far.

 

I don't go by dry statistics, I speak from actual experience.  Saturday 20th April 1963 I was with my cousin in Liverpool City Centre going round the shops.  We endured a strong, cold wind with driven sleet - and I mean sleet, not rain.

21st March  1963 (vernal equinox) saw sunny intervals with wintry showers.  Again, I experienced them.  I'm not interested in London or anywhere else.  I'm only interested in what I experienced in Merseyside/Cheshire.  I can assure you that the first sign of spring weather wasn't until the last week of April '63.

When I post regarding weather conditions it's always from personal experience, I avoid quoting statistics and as an engineer I know too well how stats can be misrepresented.  You know the old saw: there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

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2 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

I don't go by dry statistics, I speak from actual experience.  Saturday 20th April 1963 I was with my cousin in Liverpool City Centre going round the shops.  We endured a strong, cold wind with driven sleet - and I mean sleet, not rain.

21st March  1963 (vernal equinox) saw sunny intervals with wintry showers.  Again, I experienced them.  I'm not interested in London or anywhere else.  I'm only interested in what I experienced in Merseyside/Cheshire.  I can assure you that the first sign of spring weather wasn't until the last week of April '63.

When I post regarding weather conditions it's always from personal experience, I avoid quoting statistics and as an engineer I know too well how stats can be misrepresented.  You know the old saw: there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

I might just remember that April too, Pete...? I can recall a fair few consecutive days' snowfall that only accumulated at night...Aye, it must have been '63 because my dad picked me up from school (duodenal ulcers meant for three-weeks' convalescence back then!) and had to endure a never-ending barrage of weather-related daft questions: Why, when it snows all day and all night doesn't anything settle? But why? Why? Why?

Anyway, I'm not sure that the '80s' summers were all that much worse than those of other decades?  

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57 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

the 80's overall had 3 good summers 83,84 &89 which were pretty good nation-wide at times..... 85,86,87 and 88 were all pretty poor in-between the good ones though!

were there any in the 60s?..2 good summers in the 70s... 75,76..4 good summers in the 90s..90,91,94,95..2 in 2000s..03,06..and one in 10s thus far,,,2013..maybe there is a trend and there will be none again in the 2020s?

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interesting point in that I feel that 1975 was the first really good summer for a very long time - I don't think any from the 60's entered folklore like say '76 did...?

 

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1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

were there any in the 60s?..2 good summers in the 70s... 75,76..4 good summers in the 90s..90,91,94,95..2 in 2000s..03,06..and one in 10s thus far,,,2013..maybe there is a trend and there will be none again in the 2020s?

Here in the Northwest none of the 1960s summers were memorable with summer '62 abysmal.  Summer 1959 was an absolute scorcher - I was only nine at the time and I was off school for six weeks so out and about every day.  The next memorable summers were '75 and obviously '76.  '84 was a good one.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

were there any in the 60s?..2 good summers in the 70s... 75,76..4 good summers in the 90s..90,91,94,95..2 in 2000s..03,06..and one in 10s thus far,,,2013..maybe there is a trend and there will be none again in the 2020s?

also just to be pernickety but I would substitute 94 for 97 in your list ! I was born in mid 70's so only going on hearsay !

Edited by Badgers01
additional point

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1 minute ago, Badgers01 said:

also just to be pernickety but I would substitute 94 for 97 in your list !

June and July 94 were hot..esp July which i think was one of the hottest of the 20thC..only August 1997 was hot..for me anyway

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8 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

were there any in the 60s?..2 good summers in the 70s... 75,76..4 good summers in the 90s..90,91,94,95..2 in 2000s..03,06..and one in 10s thus far,,,2013..maybe there is a trend and there will be none again in the 2020s?

From memory: I think August/September 1969 might have been okay; May & June 1970 certainly were...'71 & 72 were crap, as was '74; '73 was okay...1975 and '76 were both stonkers and '77 was good in Scotland...1978,'79 and '80 were all shyte!:good:

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CET for July 94 was 18c which is high, funny how you remember stuff I don't recall it particularly remarkable at all .... Aug 97 was over 19c and I think is the forgotten hot month too !

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11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

From memory: I think August/September 1969 might have been okay; May & June 1970 certainly were...'71 & 72 were crap, as was '74; '73 was okay...1975 and '76 were both stonkers and '77 was good in Scotland...1978,'79 and '80 were all shyte!:good:

September '69 saw a late heatwave with temps up into the 70sF (we used old money back then) but the start of October was typically autumnal. Summer '70 was nice but not exceptional.  However March '70 was cold with frequent wintry showers and hard frosts which if I remember correctly continued into early April.  Summers of '71 and '72 were so-so but notably dull.  The last summer I remember is '87 for the wrong reasons - substandard temps.  Late Summer Holiday Sunday saw dark skies, driving rain and temp of 9-10C.  Holiday Monday saw fine conditions but a max of only 14C.

Sadly I have no memory of 90s or later summers as my stroke a few years ago trashed my short- and mid-term memory however my long-term memory became much more keen.

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3 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

September '69 saw a late heatwave with temps up into the 70sF (we used old money back then) but the start of October was typically autumnal. Summer '70 was nice but not exceptional.  However March '70 was cold with frequent wintry showers and hard frosts which if I remember correctly continued into early April.  Summers of '71 and '72 were so-so but notably dull.  The last summer I remember is '87 for the wrong reasons - substandard temps.  Late Summer Holiday Sunday saw dark skies, driving rain and temp of 9-10C.  Holiday Monday saw fine conditions but a max of only 14C.

Sadly I have no memory of 90s or later summers as my stroke a few years ago trashed my short- and mid-term memory however my long-term memory became much more keen.

thanks for the insight - I guess the 60's were pretty poor for memorable summers then !? 

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

I don't go by dry statistics, I speak from actual experience.  Saturday 20th April 1963 I was with my cousin in Liverpool City Centre going round the shops.  We endured a strong, cold wind with driven sleet - and I mean sleet, not rain.

21st March  1963 (vernal equinox) saw sunny intervals with wintry showers.  Again, I experienced them.  I'm not interested in London or anywhere else.  I'm only interested in what I experienced in Merseyside/Cheshire.  I can assure you that the first sign of spring weather wasn't until the last week of April '63.

When I post regarding weather conditions it's always from personal experience, I avoid quoting statistics and as an engineer I know too well how stats can be misrepresented.  You know the old saw: there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

With all due respect, Pete, I'm a weather historian and I take the opposite view, I don't take personal experience at face view as people tend to look through nostalgic glasses or they allow their nature (eg pessimists)  to look through a narrow prism. People say that "summers were better when they were kids" etc. as an example.  I look at the hard stats evidence to back up what they say.

 

 

Edited by Weather-history
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4 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

thanks for the insight - I guess the 60's were pretty poor for memorable summers then !? 

That's right, 60s were pretty humdrum except for '62 which was chilly and exceptionally wet with only a few proper "summer" days.  I my family spent a week's holiday in August at Kircudbright and it rained solidly for all but the Wednesday when I was taken to the beach.  It rained solidly from Wirral to Gretna up the A6 (only a short stretch of the M6 open back then).

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32 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

CET for July 94 was 18c which is high, funny how you remember stuff I don't recall it particularly remarkable at all .... Aug 97 was over 19c and I think is the forgotten hot month too !

i was living in sarf London in 1994 but wasn't in 97 and you know how hot it can feel in the urban jungle in the summer..so that's why i remember 94 as being hotter than 97.

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This is the preliminary summer forecast for my neck of the woods.

We expect a warm to hot summer for most of North America. Most regions should see temperatures that are either near or above normal during the months of June, July and August. The one region that appears to be the least likely to see a hot summer is centred on the Great Lakes.

To some extent this resembles the pattern that we saw last summer with the warmest weather found across western Canada and Atlantic Canada and the cooler weather found in between. However, we do expect that this summer will be warmer in the Great Lakes region than it was last summer.

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