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Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 16/03/2018 Onwards

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11 minutes ago, Norrance said:

My daughter is driving up from Glasgow to Dundee tomorrow and has asked if there could be problems with snow. I said she should try to get past Blackford to Broxden by early afternoon and she should be fine. Apparently she can’t leave too early as out on the razzle  tonight. Any thoughts? 

Yes!

I wish I was out the razzle tonight 🍻

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2 hours ago, Cheggers said:

Brrrr -4 when I got in the car at 8am. 5 live reporter suggest possible significant falls for the Central Belt, will wait and see.

I got in my car and it refused to start. It's meant to be driving us down to Cornwall on Friday and garage can't look at it until Wednesday. Not panicking at all. 

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Tomorrow is shaping up to be interesting in terms of snow potential. Despite a rather quiet atlantic during the autumn - other than a couple of storms in September -  we haven't had many opportunities for snow so far this season. Other than a couple of attempts at an easterly we've struggled to find the breakthrough in the stalemate despite the potential for blocking. It's been fairly average temperature wise with some frosts - The lowest temperature this season so far came in late October with  -5C being the lowest temperature in October since 2002 a few weeks after the joint warmest high - almost matching the swift transition between winter and summer early this year. With cold air not too faraway it only takes a small tweak for a favourable outcome and it seems Saturday could be a prime example of this with the first widespread snow of the season. Last winter really didn't get going for snow until after Christmas with a frontal snow event at the end if the month, before that there had been some snow since late November - the models promised a lot for early December, in the end it was pretty cold for a few days with Parts if a England getting most of the snow. 

Hopefully tomorrow will at least produce the first snow of the season though there is the potential for more. It's one of those marginal set-ups which will either bring a brief  period of mostly wet snow before turning back to rain, or a more prolonged and significant event with decent accumulations. I'm hoping for the latter but expecting the former - a little bit of height can make all the difference. Last year had the first measurable December snow event since 2012 - the last time snow lay on the ground in the first half of December. It would be a great start to winter if tomorrow delivers though if it doesn't we've got plenty of time ahead for further opportunities - significant snowfalls are more likely in spring than before Christmas. The models have some interest going forward with tentative signs of something seasonal around Christmas and the background signals look pretty promising into the new year. 2018 will be difficult to top after an almost perfect and eventful flow of the weather during the first 7 months progressing dramatically from a seasonal, long, snowy winter to a long warm, dry summer. The transition was almost continental like with only four months between the epic beast from the east in late February to record heat in late June with only a few weeks of normal Spring weather inbetween. Last winter was brilliant in terms of the number and frequency of decent snow events climaxing in late Feb/early Mar - easily the best winter since the 2010. The one thing last year didn't have and 09/10 and 10/11 did have was a prolonged period of notable winter weather - the last notable cold spell of length was March 2013 - it would be great if we could have a 2010' like spell in January - besides 2010 we're overdue a notable January (and February) for cold and snow.

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Latest Met warning has significantly cut back on snow potential but we now have an Amber for freezing rain. Looks more of a rain to possibly snow event for many. Who knows what will happen - the forecasts are a mess! North of the Central belt looks a better bet for snow. 

warning.thumb.png.93e32df0870e2cfe9ef1f36e38ba8ecc.png

AMBER:

Heavy freezing rain is expected to develop during Saturday. This will result in the rapid formation of widespread ice on roads, pavements, trees and other structures. Freezing rain is rare in the United Kingdom but when it does occur the impacts can be very severe. This is due to the fact that it can form very quickly, it can be difficult to see and is incredibly slippery. Some sleet and snow is possible over the very highest ground and the freezing rain may also be followed by a spell of sleet and snow as the precipitation clears from the west. The freezing rain and sleet and snow will be accompanied by strong southeasterly winds which will pose an additional hazard to travel, in particular over high ground.

The YELLOW warning still has the potential for snow but appears to be on the back edge:

Freezing rain is expected to develop during Saturday, lasting into the early hours of Sunday. This may result in the formation of ice on roads, pavements, trees and other structures. Freezing rain is rare in the United Kingdom, but when it does occur impacts can be severe. This is due to the fact that it can form very quickly, it can be difficult to see, and is incredibly slippery. Freezing rain is likely to change to snow before it dies out across parts of Scotland, bringing some accumulations of 2-5 cm. The freezing rain and snow will be accompanied by strong southeasterly winds which will pose an additional hazard to travel, in particualr over high ground.

Edited by 101_North

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13 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Latest Met warning has significantly cut back on snow potential but we now have an Amber for freezing rain. Looks more of a rain to possibly snow event for many. Who knows what will happen - the forecasts are a mess! North of the Central belt looks a better bet for snow. 

warning.thumb.png.93e32df0870e2cfe9ef1f36e38ba8ecc.png

AMBER:

Heavy freezing rain is expected to develop during Saturday. This will result in the rapid formation of widespread ice on roads, pavements, trees and other structures. Freezing rain is rare in the United Kingdom but when it does occur the impacts can be very severe. This is due to the fact that it can form very quickly, it can be difficult to see and is incredibly slippery. Some sleet and snow is possible over the very highest ground and the freezing rain may also be followed by a spell of sleet and snow as the precipitation clears from the west. The freezing rain and sleet and snow will be accompanied by strong southeasterly winds which will pose an additional hazard to travel, in particular over high ground.

The YELLOW warning still has the potential for snow but appears to be on the back edge:

Freezing rain is expected to develop during Saturday, lasting into the early hours of Sunday. This may result in the formation of ice on roads, pavements, trees and other structures. Freezing rain is rare in the United Kingdom, but when it does occur impacts can be severe. This is due to the fact that it can form very quickly, it can be difficult to see, and is incredibly slippery. Freezing rain is likely to change to snow before it dies out across parts of Scotland, bringing some accumulations of 2-5 cm. The freezing rain and snow will be accompanied by strong southeasterly winds which will pose an additional hazard to travel, in particualr over high ground.

This is a 1st I think? An amber for freezing rain? Proper freezing rain is amazing, it turns all greenery a purple black colour.

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2 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

This is a 1st I think? An amber for freezing rain? Proper freezing rain is amazing, it turns all greenery a purple black colour.

I don't remember ever seeing a warning for freezing rain never mind an amber! From a weather perspective I'm much more interested in this developing than a fleeting wet snow event! 

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Amber snow warning out

Between 09:00 Sat 15th and 08:00 Sun 16th

Heavy snow and blizzards bringing disruption to travel and infrastructure.

What to expect

  • Travel delays on roads are likely, stranding some vehicles and passengers
  • Some delays and cancellations to rail travel are likely
  • There is a good chance that some rural communities could become cut off
  • Power cuts are likely and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected

Regions and local authorities affected:

  • Central, Tayside & Fife
  • Grampian
  • Highlands & Eilean Siar
  • Strathclyde

Further details

A period of prolonged and heavy snow is expected to develop through Saturday morning, before clearing from the west through Sunday morning. 5-10 cm of snow is likely widely across the area, whilst some areas could see 20 cm, perhaps as much as 40cm over higher ground. Strong south-esaterly winds will lead to temporary blizzard conditions as well as drifting of lying snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-12-15&id=b6f9bd80-c4b8-403b-bd31-33a6f6d4d9c6

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8 minutes ago, 101_North said:

I don't remember ever seeing a warning for freezing rain never mind an amber! From a weather perspective I'm much more interested in this developing than a fleeting wet snow event! 

The charts back this up strongly, the temp profile in the south is upside down. Here are the 850t, 950t, surface temp and dew point. Should be going up in value and not down:

1412e45.thumb.jpg.b8d7875fa7a35dd2e967613a6a1660f0.jpg1412e46.thumb.jpg.9641600ef69ade49c4e99d02dc2438e9.jpg1412e47.thumb.jpg.0790b4d01a8c7cd28fde5238a327d9fc.jpg1412e48.thumb.jpg.cf50c6fcbdec23407d8d51f9a47c9016.jpg

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18 minutes ago, 101_North said:

I don't remember ever seeing a warning for freezing rain never mind an amber! From a weather perspective I'm much more interested in this developing than a fleeting wet snow event! 

Freezing rain was included in the Red warning for Storm Emma combo with Beast from the East in March, but there was a lot of snow as well. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8768-sw-britain-blizzards-red-warning-and-freezing-rain-worries---storm-emma 

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My only experience of freezing rain was in Wales in about 1987, 1988 maybe.  I was on a motorbike and I don't need to tell you how it ended.

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I'd imagine freezing rain will be something that the UK would struggle badly with if it's actually as widespread as the warnings suggest.There would be a lot of power cuts and car crashes if heavily populated areas get it.

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Image of Amber snow warning for Saturday, to go with existing rain, wind, snow and ICE warnings 

1412snowmoIN.png

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2 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

My only experience of freezing rain was in Wales in about 1987, 1988 maybe.  I was on a motorbike and I don't need to tell you how it ended.

Oh please tell us 🤣

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A real winters day today. Felt very cold in the breeze, car refroze by mid morning and the ground stayed frozen anywhere the pale, barely there sun didn't reach. 

Not sure how tomorrow will pan out. I still think I am too far west for anything other than good old fashioned wet rain. However I may be surprised. Never experienced proper, extensive freezing rain. 

Still no winter tyres. They have finally been declared lost by DPD. Hopefully a new set on their way to arrive at the beginning of the week.

 

Edited by JamesM

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9 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

latest GFS rolling out and a snow bullseye for us Fifers / Perth with 10+cm widely if its correct @Blitzen @Big Innes Madori  @Benvironment

gfs-16-36.thumb.png.4a802c83c76a955f21278efc80859f4b.pnggfs-16-30.thumb.png.9dbb60b99dadae7c98a3f371346f185a.png30-780UK.thumb.gif.a34ce950ce05bb2958e3d1543889eb77.gif33-780UK.thumb.gif.2898346605c322e7e758172ad7d0d8e9.gif 

That will do me KW!

A shame it will be short lived though.

 

Big Innes 

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Yes a true winters day with frost persisting in most areas with a maximum temperature of 2c. Currently partly cloudy and already -1c

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If Fife gets snow and I don't, I WILL NOT BE HAPPY 😭😡

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6 minutes ago, mardatha said:

If Fife gets snow and I don't, I WILL NOT BE HAPPY 😭😡

Its the ARPEGE and HIRLAM you want to verify for your area 👍

tempresult_jra2.thumb.gif.ea5a5a92322f31c623ac08f983b43e7c.gif

hirlamuk-45-48-0.thumb.png.e7667514a186b5709047f0811bf8d36f.pngarpegeuk-45-39-0.thumb.png.789b7a5c7ec46c559a2c84eec1621bcb.png

tempresult_bao4.thumb.gif.25885edb25e52836da2e403cc7936b1e.gif

A new game show for the chance to win tons eh snaw or nae snaw ataw starts tomorrow across Scotland snaw.thumb.png.38a99aaa2dfa963552f097f17560603f.png which will you get? look ootside yer windae the morn and find oot 😂

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We need to go up to Edinburgh in the morning, hope the moor stays open to get back home.

Then after that. it can snaw for a week! 😎

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As 101N said, think i'd like to see proper freezing rain rather than a damp cold sleety affair here in Edinburgh, something ive seen only once before and it was both amazing and terryfying in equal measure (remember ice coming off telegraph poles)

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Big day tomorrow some of us are in for a right old dumping. ❄❄❄☃️☃️☃️ BRING ME MY SNAW...

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8 hours ago, Ross90 said:

I'd imagine freezing rain will be something that the UK would struggle badly with if it's actually as widespread as the warnings suggest.There would be a lot of power cuts and car crashes if heavily populated areas get it.

I'm guessing based on your name that you were born in 1990 so you may have missed the freezing rain (or extremely severe icing) in Motherwell that happened on New years Day 1991. I was at a party in house near The Bently Hotel and awoke with a hangover which wasn't about to help me home. I was staying at the bottom of Ladywell Road. Basically it was all downhill from the party to a home. It was early so there were no cars about. Myself and my friend slid down the road as it was safer than the pavement. I had a look at some archive weather charts but couldn't work out if it was freezing rain or not! Help?

Thankfully @Hairy Celt I've have never had the pleasure of riding any of my motorbikes on black ice. I have quite a few times cycling and one minute you are upright and the next your head is hitting the ground. I have took the motorbike out in snow on the odd occasion. Mostly by accident though none thankfully happened. In February 2013 I went to Elgin from Glasgow. I thought I'd take the scenic route via Glenshee Ski Centre and it was snow free until I started to climb to the resort. It wasn't so bad at the summit but as I picked my way through skiers crossing the road. It was then I clocked a police 4x4 with one of the officers with his head in his hands and gesticulating towards me like I was a mad man. To be fair he was right. The conditions to the north got worse. I had a few sketchy moments but thankfully never came off. Photo was taken somewhere outside Dufftown while I was taking a breather and gathering my thoughts.

Stay safe out there tomorrow whatever mode of transport you choose!

P1050344.JPG

Edited by chemikal
crap at spell checking

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hard to tell where will be the best placed for snow tomorrow, some from the 18z, think it will be a nowcasting situation

24-780UK.thumb.gif.dfbf8f4f5f624827d7a6ca5ec82df29f.gif 27-780PUK.thumb.gif.703a4ac4a5b77b1a25ef7eb327576154.gifgfs-16-24.thumb.png.a5cb429293608d5261b16aebd97b03ba.pnggfs-16-30.thumb.png.a2e27216426da55672d8a44779b3854f.pngarpegeuk-45-37-0.thumb.png.64f483a14809d7575f6534763c436d4d.pngtempresult_xop7.thumb.gif.e90dfcb37f661b4fd25fa7a5bc2dd478.gif   

HIRLAM has some snow showers / flurries scattered across the country from early tomorrow morning before the main action later in the day tempresult_dsr8.thumb.gif.bdeb335631b319cc2f80d603c2e352ae.gif  

tempresult_ovr3.thumb.gif.a78b19b827f2a1745f5aa6fc7b1d359c.gif

ICON is the worst of the bunch from an IMBY point of view (Fife snow shield fully operational) 

iconeu_uk1-45-38-0.thumb.png.b969757d78edd9d75df3a2e87d6ffd9b.png 

🤞we all end up with at least a temporary covering and can get some decent snow pics and hopefully this is just the starter with lots more snow to come this winter 😀

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather

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