Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 16/03/2018 Onwards

[Northernlights]

Fed cattle and washed cars this morning in fine calm  conditions. Felt it was getting colder put there and its currently 4.5c with thin high cloud and   with frost seeming likely tonight.

Back inside for a clean up as we have some V.I.P. visitors this afternoon and I have to be on my best behaviour. Its going to be a long afternoon. Young Mr. Northernlights picking up the neeps that were weighed for the competition.this afternoon so we have some clean unfrozen neeps for sale or gifts at Christmas.

Edited December 9, 2018 by Northernlights

[Guest]

BBC has me down for 18 hours of SNAW Friday night and Saturday. Bring it on..

[Penicuikblizzard]

Same for here with bbc but the met office has it mainly dry 

[Hairy Celt]

20 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Same for here with bbc but the met office has it mainly dry 

Friday - Saturday here is forecast 6C and drizzle. Can't wait.

[blitzen]

16 hours ago, edo said:

great post KW very helpful having the links..... i am very interested in next Friday as every year i stay at piperdam for a weekend and its always been our holy grail to be in the hottub whilst it snows so fingers crossed for Friday snow showers 

4

Gotta ask Edo...........Is the hot tub inside or outside?   Don't know if I can cope with the answer though!

Chilly and showery here today.   Currently 3.7c with a W light wind.

[Ravelin]

Decent day here after early rain cleared (swear I saw some sleet hit the kitchen window around 7am). Cloud cleared away later and although 3/4C out it felt a lot colder in the Northerly breeze. Cloudless now so likely heading for a good ftost if it stays that way. 

@More Snowsince BBC changed away from MetO for thier forecasts I've found there online forecasts less than accurate. I tend to find MetO app more accurate. Having said that, bbc have me getting several hours of sleet on Sat, but that's Alford so my extra 150m or so of height might just turn that to snow, wet snow. 

Edited December 9, 2018 by Ravelin

[chemikal]

Afternoon walk with my sister & her mad dog Ripley who dives into anything holding water and that includes mud puddles. Photos taken from the Catkin Braes looking north west towards Glasgow. Frost was holding on in the shade. I should really go for more walks there as it is only a few miles from my house.

[blitzen]

Morning all.

Frosty this morning!

If the 'STAR' is to be believed, UK to be battered by 'Snow and Storms from today'  God, they never give up, do they?

 

 

 

 

[mistyqueen]

53 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Morning all.

Frosty this morning!

If the 'STAR' is to be believed, UK to be battered by 'Snow and Storms from today'  God, they never give up, do they?

 

 

 

 

The Sun says the same apparently! Meanwhile back on the ranch, it's around 0.5c with clear skies. Gonna be a belter of a day!

Edited December 10, 2018 by mistyqueen

[101_North]

Chilly but sunny, frosty, morning. Most pleasant. I see the BBC has me down for some snow at the weekend too - shame their forecasts have been mostly pish since they switched from the Met. Fingers crossed some of us see something falling from the sky at least 

101

[Guest]

Now got me having 24 hours of snow and heavy snow as well. Watch it jaffa cakes down with rain..

[howham]

It snowed for a bit last night as I was driving between Tarves and Fyvie.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

3 hours ago, More Snow said:

Now got me having 24 hours of snow and heavy snow as well. Watch it jaffa cakes down with rain..

On 09/12/2018 at 14:33, More Snow said:

BBC has me down for 18 hours of SNAW Friday night and Saturday. Bring it on..

On 08/12/2018 at 22:45, edo said:

great post KW very helpful having the links..... i am very interested in next Friday as every year i stay at piperdam for a weekend and its always been our holy grail to be in the hottub whilst it snows so fingers crossed for Friday snow showers 

found some ECM members which has the two of you in the sweet spot for the possible snow on Saturday (these will change once the 12z rolls out later tonight)

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/perthshire-and-kinross/m24_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/perthshire-and-kinross/m19_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/perthshire-and-kinross/m12_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/perthshire-and-kinross/m6_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/perthshire-and-kinross/snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html 

still looking good for the majority of Scotland to get some snow cover by the end of the weekend, might be temporary if the milder air can make its mind up where it is going 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m10_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m12_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m19_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html

heres one for anyone in the SW of Scotland https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/south-ayrshire/m49_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html 11 inches! (again dont take depths too literally but depending on the strength of the front / Atlantic air something in the 7-10 inch range somewhere in Scotland wouldn't surprise me)

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m40_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html

if these kinds of charts are still showing by late Wednesday / Thursday I think we might need to get the number ready for Mr Plow to dig us out and send supplies to @More Snow and @edo who have been cut off by the snow and @edo's hot tub has frozen over  

 

BBC also going for heavy snow here on Saturday morning https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2645298/day5

[Guest]

If @edo hot tube freezes over we would be in trouble.. I will be ok tho coz I can retreat to my sauna room

[edo]

On 09/12/2018 at 15:24, Blitzen said:

Gotta ask Edo...........Is the hot tub inside or outside?   Don't know if I can cope with the answer though!

Chilly and showery here today.   Currently 3.7c with a W light wind.

outside lol.... a glorious sight for passers by if it was not for the 6ft fence 

[edo]

1 hour ago, More Snow said:

If @edo hot tube freezes over we would be in trouble.. I will be ok tho coz I can retreat to my sauna room

its 40c so the end shall be nigh 

models impossible to follow just now... amazing the amount of chopping and changing.... fingers crossed for even a snow to rain event.... followed by a late dec snow fest while on holiday 

[Northernlights]

Cool day with a maximum of 4c after a frost came in after the sky cleared at dawn.Some very weak winter sunshine.

A very wintry picture round the Firth with most of the hills having some snow down to about 800 feet .Ben Wyvis in particularly has a substantial covering above 2000 feet. The snow on the Ben was very visible this afternoon against a dark cloudy sky to the north west

[Hairy Celt]

-2.4C this morning, which is cold for here, unexpectedly so. Bizarrely little ice around. 

[edinburgh_1992]

I think eastern areas could see some snow showers already on Thursday in the eastern flow from "lake effect". Then Friday-Saturday we could see more widespread snow or sleet, but at the moment this remains very uncertain

[edo]

1 hour ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

I think eastern areas could see some snow showers already on Thursday in the eastern flow from "lake effect". Then Friday-Saturday we could see more widespread snow or sleet, but at the moment this remains very uncertain

for sure.... great to see a scottish perspective in the model thread from yourself.... its very southern britain heavy so always interesting to see your posts pop up 

 

 

[Ruzzi]

1 hour ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

I think eastern areas could see some snow showers already on Thursday in the eastern flow from "lake effect". Then Friday-Saturday we could see more widespread snow or sleet, but at the moment this remains very uncertain

Unfortunately it doesn't' look very promising on Thursday. Doesn't appear cold enough or indeed a strong enough flow for anything 'lake effect'. Having said that, the odd light sleety, snizzle shower along the east cost, especially the east coast above the firth of Tay should probably not be ruled out. 

Lake effect needs a moderate to strong flow with isobars relatively close together and generally aligned across a body of water directed towards land. It also generally requires fairy low 850 hpa temps. Anything sub -10hpa is usually game on however it's not unheard of to get decent showers packing in off the sea in a strong flow when 850 hpa temps are slightly higher than -10. 

Unfortunately from a lake effect snow point of view, on Thursday we have the below model outputs from both the ECM and GFS models: 

The isobars that encompass the majority of Scotland shows that the flow is traversing over most of England prior to reaching us up in Scotland. Really we'd want the isobars aligned from the Scandinavia/Central Europe direction passing over the North Sea and across Scotland. Also the 850hpa temps this coming Thursday are struggling to breach -4/-5 by the looks of it.  Ofcourse it is possible to get lake effect snow from the west or north west too but tends to be a bit rarer to get lake effect snow from this direction for a number of reasons but not unheard of and indeed, it did happen last winter. 

For proper 'no expense spared' lake effect snow we'd want to see something akin to the charts from earlier this year which duly prompted our red weather warning: 

(always worthy of another look these). 

As for the weekend, it's all up in the air (or so to speak lol). Certainly appears to be increasing the snow chances the closer we get but so little margin for error with the weekend's set up and a very complicated one at that but definitely hopeful of seeing some snow somewhere in Scotland. 

Edited December 10, 2018 by Ruzzi

[Benvironment]

Gorgeous day here in Fife.....although still not reached 0C up in the Lomonds  The frost hung about all day at Devilla Forest, though. I've missed this kind of weather!

 

[edinburgh_1992]

1 hour ago, Ruzzi said:

Unfortunately it doesn't' look very promising on Thursday. Doesn't appear cold enough or indeed a strong enough flow for anything 'lake effect'. Having said that, the odd light sleety, snizzle shower along the east cost, especially the east coast above the firth of Tay should probably not be ruled out. 

Lake effect needs a moderate to strong flow with isobars relatively close together and generally aligned across a body of water directed towards land. It also generally requires fairy low 850 hpa temps. Anything sub -10hpa is usually game on however it's not unheard of to get decent showers packing in off the sea in a strong flow when 850 hpa temps are slightly higher than -10. 

Unfortunately from a lake effect snow point of view, on Thursday we have the below model outputs from both the ECM and GFS models: 

The isobars that encompass the majority of Scotland shows that the flow is traversing over most of England prior to reaching us up in Scotland. Really we'd want the isobars aligned from the Scandinavia/Central Europe direction passing over the North Sea and across Scotland. Also the 850hpa temps this coming Thursday are struggling to breach -4/-5 by the looks of it.  Ofcourse it is possible to get lake effect snow from the west or north west too but tends to be a bit rarer to get lake effect snow from this direction for a number of reasons but not unheard of and indeed, it did happen last winter. 

For proper 'no expense spared' lake effect snow we'd want to see something akin to the charts from earlier this year which duly prompted our red weather warning: 

(always worthy of another look these). 

As for the weekend, it's all up in the air (or so to speak lol). Certainly appears to be increasing the snow chances the closer we get but so little margin for error with the weekend's set up and a very complicated one at that but definitely hopeful of seeing some snow somewhere in Scotland.

We'll see, the models are showing lower 850 temps with every run. If we manage to get -7/-8 (ecmwf is almost there) and a slightly more easterly flow, nothing should be excluded. Especially considering that sea temperatures are still quite warm. I find that models often underestimate lake effect snow. 

During the mid November "easterly", even though forecasts and models were showing very weak precipitation, here in Edinburgh we had some pretty hefty showers moving in. Unfortunately it wasn't cold enough for anything wintry.

The latest ecmwf run is perfect for Scotland, with colder air holding onto us throughout Saturday and Sunday, coupled with heavy snow. Let's hope the run gets confirmed tomorrow, it's not miles away. I think models like GFS are over-estimating the Atlantic, it keeps getting pushed back and I reckon that Scotland can hold onto the cold air for longer

[edinburgh_1992]

1 hour ago, edo said:

for sure.... great to see a scottish perspective in the model thread from yourself.... its very southern britain heavy so always interesting to see your posts pop up 

 

 

Yes, I feel like I'm on my own in that thread. I hope it snows just in Scotland next weekend with rain in England so I can annoy them with some snowy pics 

[snowidea]

 Chilly day here today but had a cracking sunrise this morning