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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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High is setting up to our east again as we go through next weekend and into the following week

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Can see it joining forces with the Azores high in a few frames time

Edited by Summer Sun
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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

This is more like it

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Happy days

:)

Indeed, looking more spring-like with temps into the low 60's F in places, that would feel like spring has finally sprung!..smiley face

 

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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looks like warming up in the West but surely a dull east coast is possible for places like Darlington??

Best of the temps in the East on today's 12z but even Scotland gets to join in

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Does the GEFS mean chart at the end of the run (T384) suggest to anyone else that it doesn't have a clue?

gens-21-1-384.png?12

The only thing we can take from that is that the weather will apparently be green, except for the south.  Damn that M4 again, south of that it's just murky yellow - folks in the south on the wrong side of it again!!

Edited by Mike Poole
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It's noticeable that there is a fair amount of support from the GEFS 12z for high pressure to be in the vicinity of the uk during the second week of april with some directly over the uk, of course it will make a world of difference regarding surface conditions where any high sets up but these examples are rather nice..P9 especially!:)????

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Edited by Frosty.
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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Nice all the low cloud and mist along the east coast but for those inland to the West they are great charts

And yet it's warmest towards the East coast:shok::D..low to mid 60's F!

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7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

And yet it's warmest towards the East coast:shok::D..low to mid 60's F!

Time of year and those conditions will bring mist inland for the east.... seen it all to often. The later charts and slight wind direction change may produce better results.

Big question is can we get some consistency.

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Does the GEFS mean chart at the end of the run (T384) suggest to anyone else that it doesn't have a clue?

gens-21-1-384.png?12

The only thing we can take from that is that the weather will apparently be green, except for the south.  Damn that M4 again, south of that it's just murky yellow - folks in the south on the wrong side of it again!!

and also no wind Mike ... looks like the output of a corrupted data set

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ECM starting to show something more typical for the time of year with low-pressure north of Scotland giving the continued risk of rain/showers here but high pressure builds up from the south keeping most of England and Wales settled and warmer

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The Ecm 12z looks generally unsettled for the next week or so with some large variations in temperature but then high pressure starts to muscle it's way in towards the end of next week with a window of fine weather, especially further s / e / se:)

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Not too concerned about detail but Week 2 finally sees the jet being pushed north as the height anomalies to our north west finally disappear as the pv finally relocates over Greenland.

Hopefully an end to these southerly tracking lows bringing so much rain in cold air and a change to a more typical pattern with warmer air gradually filtering north. 

 

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Evening All , after the grim Easter weather , perhaps we can ,look forward to some rise in pressure ,Ops models toying around with it by later next week and the ensembles gefs with a dramatic rise in pressure from April 5th...:yahoo:Come on, Come On:yahoo:Come on Come On:yahoo:

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Signs of a pressure rise towards day 10 on tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean..wouldn't it be nice to have a spell of settled weather for a change!:D

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Seems to have been support for a little while for a fast warm up in the second week of April !  But now its looking quite likely.  Looks like winters last hurrah in the next few days. Then later next week its time to dust off those BBQ's, and Beach Boy Albums, and put on those trendy sun glasses, well at least for a few days anyway !

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5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

This is more like it

GFSOPEU12_222_1.thumb.png.8a18b14308f7f7cafd6fc189e637c094.pngGFSOPEU12_231_1.thumb.png.1aaf3c7b34ad63f57bf628eef89b47d9.pngGFSOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.3108897342234dea94307037ea1878b9.pngGFSOPEU12_264_1.thumb.png.8c60098fe6d7bd7cb09046dab4ea96e0.pngGFSOPEU12_288_1.thumb.png.442548defc9d496dc8bdf8a27e85a4a5.pngGFSOPEU12_312_1.thumb.png.6bc2dbf10708d53fd235a0f329f4a7e2.png

Happy days

:)

Yes please. Please, please. That looks blissful. 

Can’t wait to see the back of this cold and rain. I have rain forecast for everyday over the next 7 days!!

This winter seems to have gone on forever. 

 

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21 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Seems to have been support for a little while for a fast warm up in the second week of April !  But now its looking quite likely.  Looks like winters last hurrah in the next few days. Then later next week its time to dust off those BBQ's, and Beach Boy Albums, and put on those trendy sun glasses, well at least for a few days anyway !

Amen to that!

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The Gfs 00z becomes very spring-like during low res with much warmer conditions, indeed, the synoptics have a summery look to them towards / during the mid april period.:)???????

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