Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[SMU]

Thanks - Officially signed off twice but always lurking-

UKMO 168 & ECM 168 show the cold temporarily being blocked as the systems angle isnt very favourable for allowing the cold over the top-

Although that could change- look at beast 2 - All the models were pretty poor until 96-120

There is some legs in this next cold spell - Higher chance of some high lattitude blocking - So it could happen ---- More snow ???? Possibly....

[nick sussex]

50 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Nick can you please let me know what you mean by Anything ?

I was being a bit melodramatic ! 

Just that the models have only now agreed on the pattern to the north at day 6 and the effects of the strat warming and reversal might still lead to some more changes .

If you get more trough disruption and the high to the north is being underdone then it could turn colder quicker.

 

[Frosty.]

Welcome back again steve

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean to me looks loaded with wintry potential later, better than the earlier operational actually..more wintry weather to come?..I think there is!❄❄❄❄⛄⛄⛄⛄

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All! Really cannot see anything that mild from the gfs and ecm  12z suite tonight, in the days ahead , gfs brings us a cold Easter ,ecm offers us in no mans land.... Very Unusual synoptics. , The Sun Cycle has the biggest effect on Planet Earth and is doing so now ,

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All! Really cannot see anything that mild from the gfs and ecm  12z suite tonight, in the days ahead , gfs brings us a cold Easter ,ecm offers us in no mans land.... Very Unusual synoptics. , The Sun Cycle has the biggest effect on Planet Earth and is doing so now ,

Any evidence to support that claim, AW?

[Summer Sun]

A lot of talk about Easter but the short term will see temperatures steadily increasing into double figures for some not completely dry all the time but where you get some breaks in the cloud it would be feeling quite pleasant dare I say it even spring-like

[frosty ground]

30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A lot of talk about Easter but the short term will see temperatures steadily increasing into double figures for some not completely dry all the time but where you get some breaks in the cloud it would be feeling quite pleasant dare I say it even spring-like

Pretty average for the time of year and when you add the cloud and rain it's a bit meh

Edited March 20, 2018 by frosty ground

[abruzzi spur]

6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Pretty average for tye time of year and shen younadd the cloud and rain iys a bit meh

That's easy for you to say, if not for some of us to understand.

[abruzzi spur]

double post, sorry

Edited March 20, 2018 by abruzzi spur

[Purga]

Beast 3 setting up!!

Edited March 20, 2018 by Purga

[feb1991blizzard]

Really close to a brutal Easterly here - within touching distance.

[Mike Poole]

Well it's some kind of slithering dinosaur thing with a big snout heading in for Easter on the pub run at T174:

Leading to a completely barmy set up, here at T192:

Whoooaahh!

Edited March 20, 2018 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

-12c isotherm about to hit for the third time in a month.

[SMU]

Nothing to add- 18z is optimal for this time of year- The splitting of the low is in a perfect location-

*** We dont want the fledgling high to out North to join with the atlantic high- Keep them seperate ***

[bluearmy]

Gfs and ec are poles apart over the pole ............

its about time that gfs got one of these right!

[Purga]

What a flamin; corker!

Widespread convective snow nationwide AGAIN!!

[Mike Poole]

Oh! Don't GFS, you are such a tease, T210:

Edit, T228:

Beast #3!

Edited March 20, 2018 by Mike Poole

[SMU]

Good Friday Thames streamer lol

[Purga]

I'm moving to Exmoor the new snow resort of the UK

[Frosty.]

I'm just going to enjoy this moment looking at the Gfs 18z..stunning charts these for the cusp of april..nothing marginal about the wet bulb temps here!!..please come true!..we've had 2 wintry miracles this spring already, why not a 3rd!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

[ICE COLD]

Wow wow wow GFS 18z . @Summer Sun will be having kittens when he see's these charts . Quite amazing for late March early April. We've had no beasts in years ,then we have 2 in 3 weeks are we gonna get a 3rd ??? These all whitin a month . Bloody marvellous ?

Edited March 20, 2018 by ICE COLD

[SMU]

18z 144 mean-!!

Tomorrow just day 5 !!!

[The Eagle]

GFS has been very poor. Stick with the euros for now.

[Rocheydub]

15 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

 Stick with the euros for now.

You sound like Theresa May!

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

-12c isotherm about to hit for the third time in a month.

That’s just ridiculous steep lapse rates I’d imagine slow moving heavy snow showers, widespread! Much of mid latitudes gripped in winter, Eurasia especially with little sign of a seismic change.

Very interesting weather being touted whatever your take. I think it can be said with confidence it will turn colder and more unsettled however not as we usually know it..

Edited March 20, 2018 by Daniel*