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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Well the arctic rabbit showed up again on the 06z and we all new what happened then

gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.384c553c16f54292a4fa5dfc815b539a.pngarctic-hare.jpg

found it,it was for the 6th of december from the gem:)

 

will we get an easter rabbit:D

tonights 18z almost showing a cross polar flow:shok:

gfsnh-0-384.png?18

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
26 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well the arctic rabbit showed up again on the 06z and we all new what happened then

gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.384c553c16f54292a4fa5dfc815b539a.pngarctic-hare.jpg

found it,it was for the 6th of december from the gem:)

 

will we get an easter rabbit:D

tonights 18z almost showing a cross polar flow:shok:

gfsnh-0-384.png?18

But instead it shows high pressure and temps average across the UK which would be pleasant in the stong spring sunshine

Edited by SizzlingHeat
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
8 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

But instead it shows high pressure and temps average across the UK which would be pleasant in the stong spring sunshine

I was looking at the NH profile in general,no vigour in the pv at all on that chart,a very amplified pattern probabley due to the final warming happening soon,a few tweaks hear and there would put us in the slammer,cold slammer.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

18z Euro4 absolutely smashes the Pennines.

18031818_1618.gif

 

Tiny little speck of red not a million miles away from my house!!!

nmm_uk1-45-36-0.png?17-00

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Awake at the moment for some reason, so may as well post the 0z HIRLAM, now covering the whole of the weekend.  Here's the cumulative snow chart at T48:

hirlamuk-45-48-0.png?17-05

Seems to me that the SW and SE areas of heavier snowfall are getting larger and covering more of the south here, north as you were, Scotland maybe less snowfall than recent runs.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Yet another beautiful arctic blast on the Gfs 00z in low res with a white easter, hope it's right!...in the meantime, enjoy this weekend's mid March freeze and disruptive snow!:D:cold:⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄❄❄❄❄❄

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Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yet another beautiful arctic blast on the Gfs 00z in low res with a white easter, hope it's right!...in the meantime, enjoy this weekend's mid March freeze and disruptive snow!:D:cold:⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄❄❄❄❄❄

I get the feeling Frosty that if this weather continued for 12 months of the year you would be more than happy?

Models have been hinting at another cold shot around Easter for a while so would not rule it out.. 

Edited by Bottled Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Interesting output this morning, quite a few ensemble members are prolonging the spell of coldish uppers under a surface high out to late in the week.

Quite a few a toying with pressure rises to our north later in the week bringing in more cold air from Scandinavia. A few members drop a low pressure to the S of the UK also leaving the UK exposed to some colder uppers.

Long term the picture looks cold with  many runs going for cold transient northerlies. A few blocked members in there. The theme for a below average last week of March remains.

image.thumb.png.34dc944e6476bc6fd8fc610be86ed2df.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Yes Quicksilver and a cracking outlook for coldies

image.thumb.png.5ef39cbb433614d5a798aab90ac3898a.png

Bring it on - the daffs can wait !

:D

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The next blast of cold air is lining up on GFS

gfs-0-312.thumb.png.3117b1fed3ba8cba3277af762c025340.pnggfs-1-312.thumb.png.e0d5ff9900025f3b536dd7d46db2dbf1.pnggfs-9-312.thumb.png.baa6d03d7cfe67f845904d3b7395d488.png

At least with all this low pressure now it might give us a better chance for better weather come the summer how many springs have had lots of high pressure early on then poor summers have followed

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think this is the 5th consecutive Gfs run to show an arctic blast around Easter with snow for most of the uk..naturally I would love this 6z run to be right!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄:cold-emoji::)

06_300_mslp850.png

06_300_preciptype.png

06_312_mslp850.png

06_312_ukthickness850.png

06_312_ukthickness.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just looking at the GEFS 6z mean for Easter week and it currently indicates a scandi trough and atlantic ridge so the idea of an arctic incursion coinciding with easter as the last five gfs operational runs have shown would appear to be a good bet as things stand..hope it continues as I would love a white easter!!:D:cold-emoji:⛄⛄❄❄

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Make that six consecutive GFS runs showing an Arctic plunge for Easter with snow in many areas, a wintry end to march / start of april on this run and several before it!⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄❄❄❄❄❄ yes please 12z!:cold::D

12_312_mslp850.png

12_324_preciptype.png

12_336_mslp850.png

12_336_ukthickness850.png

12_336_ukthickness.png

12_348_preciptype.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Make that six consecutive GFS runs showing an Arctic plunge for Easter with snow in many areas, a wintry end to march / start of april on this run and several before it!⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄❄❄❄❄❄ yes please 12z!:cold::D

Cut the charts out to save space

2

If GFS nails that one it will be 3 cold spells/snaps in a row it has picked up 2 weeks in advance

GFS has had more victories than Sunderland since mid-February!

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.7823ebfe1c74c8e92550dca2639ca7f1.png

12z swingometer, more runs going for transient northerlies in the final week of March, a small number build a block for more sustained cold. Overall quick sharp northerlies becoming a common feature again.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The extended GEFS 12z mean also goes for the scandi trough / mid atlantic ridge idea as per the Gfs 12z op with an Arctic airmass drawn south bringing plenty of snow / wintry showers with thunder I would imagine due to increasing inland convection from the strengthening sun unlike in winter when it would be a wishbone effect with showers draped around western / northern / eastern coastal britain...so, winter could return towards / during the Easter period with snow, ice and frosts.:):cold:❄❄❄❄❄

21_288_850tmp.png

21_312_850tmp.png

21_336_850tmp.png

21_336_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Worth framing radar grabs like this & reminding people of what a proper Easterly brings - especially when they say its looking dry....

5690D963-3360-40BD-AB79-C38D68478FDD.thumb.png.4cba32bd7662347120e0208f459c3a8e.png

- double digits wind chill mid march is rare too ??

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

What a beaut to start April on to.

image.thumb.png.36f1025c07a516c0e5e871997c67a8af.pngimage.thumb.png.aceb6fec9a3bb90441f771629143d641.png

A tad snowy as well...

image.thumb.png.f167d8b379d5c3b1e99dc7e5611caeaa.png

Happy Easter!

:shok::D

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS & ECM giving us two different options towards Easter

GFSOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.13a8b35a624a0c7c6c0cefcf40e695de.pngGFSOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.a94523db64fbc549c0466aa75255c6ee.png

ECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.9a650119eac637ff80e6ee711fd37d65.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.fce83c03ab4c8d5904a0b65a5095e62f.png

Would be nice if ECM was on the right track and it settled down just in time for the Easter weekend :)

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Shouldn’t post eps but i thought these uppers anomoly charts were worth seeing this morning. Mid Atlantic ridge and sceuro geps aren’t as deep but then they are generally a couple degrees less cold then other models. Remember this is two weeks away mean/anomoly!!!

white Easter beckons for parts of the uk as has been alluded to above 

44193576-37C0-4AE0-BBDB-340AB8DF79F2.thumb.jpeg.7dd51bd305c97d2e22f4d5127aeccc96.jpeg 2611CF44-33FF-4749-A58F-5AA7D8B211C2.thumb.jpeg.e79a3228365314c590d793c77806580d.jpeg 8AB6DA88-A358-4456-AB5D-065D19FF2307.thumb.jpeg.599a63e8e39104bfebefcb9488d01219.jpeg

Yes and GEFS trending nicely down - a pretty consistent theme now.

image.thumb.png.8465f4a0ea0ac0d2ba066aad3bc4d519.png

:)

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