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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    By the way - anyone notice the trend on the ec suite to build a ridge of sorts to our east day 10/11 with the trough stalling ???  Could we do it all again ??? Unlikely ..........

    I actually do think we will get another potent(ish) cold spell before this springter is out but for me much more likely a N to N'ely with Greeny height rises.

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    The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

    No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

    Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds

    Can anyone indicate how this is likely to compare with 1 March for snowfall levels, particularly at Leeds Bradford airport which I'm due to fly out from Saturday lunchtime. Eek!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

    Is it a coincidence that this beasterly has evolved very similar to the last with the exception of the preceding high pressure on part 1. Much like sliders correcting South West should we expect Easterlies in future to correct North.

    It's good to see most in with a chance over my birthday weekend. I'm in Wales and gutted as I live in sweet spot but should see some on Sunday on my return. I have to say I do quite well for snow on my birthday, despite many saying it's too late for snow, poppycock ❄⛄❄

    ezgif-2-208d785591.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I actually do think we will get another potent(ish) cold spell before this springter is out but for me much more likely a N to N'ely with Greeny height rises.

    Something like this @feb1991blizzard

    IMG_1947.PNG

    IMG_1948.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Coastal Northumberland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves and anything extreme
  • Location: Coastal Northumberland

    Slightly off topic but in terms of "sun strength" as we all know the further north we go the weaker the sun so here is a little info comparing sun height when beast 1 hit compared to beast 2. I've used dates of 1st and 17th March for comparison -

    Brighton 31.7 & 37.9

    Birmingham 30.1 & 36.3

    Hull 28.8 & 35.0

    Newcastle 27.6 & 33.8

    Dundee 26.1 & 32.3

    Lerwick 22.4 & 28.6

     

    So we can see that by the 17th the the sun strength Newcastle northwards is just marginally stronger than it was in the south during beast 1, so for these areas any snowfall shouldn't melt off that quickly, in fact we still have lying show in my coastal area of Northumberland from beast 1 where it drifted.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    ⛄charts to treasure from the Ecm 12z ensemble mean this weekend ⛄for coldies of course!:cold::D❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄

    ECMAVGEU12_48_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_72_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    13 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Something like this @feb1991blizzard

    IMG_1947.PNG

    IMG_1948.PNG

    Yes, to me that's what the models look like they're hinting at to me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    38 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

    Whatever the outcome, Spring is well and truly struggling to stay afloat for the foreseeable future.  

    Spring may be finished before it begins:hi:

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    Posted
  • Location: Channel Islands 5 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind, storms
  • Location: Channel Islands 5 asl

    Looks like a correction north so a disaster for us in the Channel Islands. Get the impression the low in north France is going to push up and will now move the main snow along the south England coast. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    37 minutes ago, level said:

    Can anyone indicate how this is likely to compare with 1 March for snowfall levels, particularly at Leeds Bradford airport which I'm due to fly out from Saturday lunchtime. Eek!

    I do believe you got an informative response on the regional to this:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
    Just now, winterof79 said:

    I do believe you got an informative response on the regional to this:)

    Nothing wrong with seeking confirmation/other views!

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    EDIT

    Edited by winterof79
    moved to regional
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Hmm, looks like the cold is booting us out of Europe.... 580CC19E-B89B-4630-84FC-17E733B14C53.thumb.jpeg.dac07e7743fd96175d6f6160825ac47c.jpeg

     

    (Thanks to Frosty for image!) 

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    11 minutes ago, Dunlop Dave said:

    Looks like a correction north so a disaster for us in the Channel Islands. Get the impression the low in north France is going to push up and will now move the main snow along the south England coast. 

    Seems a lot  like beast 1, Alderney had the best snow, just that few miles North made a big difference. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ICON at T54, liking the divergence between the 1005 and 1000 isobars here:

    icon-0-54.png?15-18

    And the cold well in place, well we know that by now:

    icon-1-54.png?15-18

    And still looking good at T69:

    icon-0-69.png?15-18

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Channel Islands 5 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind, storms
  • Location: Channel Islands 5 asl
    8 minutes ago, Tog said:

    Seems a lot  like beast 1, Alderney had the best snow, just that few miles North made a big difference. 

    Yup. Even Guernsey was split in 2. 10cm where I live, 4 miles south had 2cm. Alderney got 20+cm. 

    Sleet now forecast and what a waste of space sleet is  

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    GFS coming in to line with Icon, a tiny tiny correction North already at T18.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    4 hours ago, nick sussex said:

    You can see here the big change in the UKMO from yesterday evening.

    So this is yesterdays T120hrs chart:

    UN120-21.thumb.gif.098899d0f446bc32dc3056daf28c6b23.gif

    The high over the UK is already being pulled sw as it links up with the Azores high, the red arrow denotes the colder continental sourced air with lower dew points.

    Now if you compare that to todays chart for T96hrs:

    UN96-21.thumb.gif.2ffc4d22173ca951cdf7ba7a0a5c417f.gif

    The high over the UK  is centred further to the nw, more low heights to the sw stopping the quicker sinking, you'll also note upstream the change in the trough shape, theres also a bit more dig sw over the ne USA. The more continental sourced air has moved north denoted by the red arrow.

    The strat reversal although nothing like the degree of the previous strat warming is expected I think in around 4 days time. So as we've seen the models aren't that great in projections after that point. Volatility this time is likely to be less but I think a few more runs are needed to see whether we can extend the cold a bit further.

     

     

    I agree the low heights to the SW stop the high above us sinking but surely the strat warming in 4 days won’t be quick enough to effect the trop in the timeframe needed to impact this cold snap. That would be an extremely quick response. Interested if you think it could be that quick. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    GFS coming in to line with Icon, a tiny tiny correction North already at T18.

    But a fair way south to have the same solution by 54-( V the IKON) no correction North.

    Infact lots & lots of snow for the south overnight sat into Sun..

    940E6739-6A9A-4B83-8C44-7FEAD0E0AEAD.thumb.png.f22100ecd67c1caf52101ec514640f07.pngBB63E100-52CF-4131-941F-3E494D1D1A69.thumb.png.3ec6635e0c0f6e85545eb3c9f6a14921.pngD51F2A9D-EE95-42F3-B1F8-A24E1864B353.thumb.png.63a1e9a02e947ec817ced2a244388e23.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    But a fair way south to have the same solution by 54-( V the IKON) no correction North.

    Infact lots & lots of snow for the south overnight sat into Sun..

    940E6739-6A9A-4B83-8C44-7FEAD0E0AEAD.thumb.png.f22100ecd67c1caf52101ec514640f07.pngBB63E100-52CF-4131-941F-3E494D1D1A69.thumb.png.3ec6635e0c0f6e85545eb3c9f6a14921.pngD51F2A9D-EE95-42F3-B1F8-A24E1864B353.thumb.png.63a1e9a02e947ec817ced2a244388e23.png

     

    Yes - it didn't materialise, Yes, the South is going to do very well out of this, more modest returns further North unless that frontal event Friday evening delivers, always a chance of streams peppering anywhere though

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    9 minutes ago, Trom said:

    I agree the low heights to the SW stop the high above us sinking but surely the strat warming in 4 days won’t be quick enough to effect the trop in the timeframe needed to impact this cold snap. That would be an extremely quick response. Interested if you think it could be that quick. 

    Doubt it has anything to do with that, more to do with the cold block forcing the low south,  if this new synoptic gains traction, would prolong the cold spell, early days, signal may drop again, or firm up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Very small margins now, but GFS has lower pressure at t72 into the south than the previous run, can only increase snow potential for many I'd think, 18z:

    gfs-0-72.png?18

    12z:

    gfs-0-78.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Helensburgh, Scotland
    1 hour ago, geordiekev said:

    Is it a coincidence that this beasterly has evolved very similar to the last with the exception of the preceding high pressure on part 1. Much like sliders correcting South West should we expect Easterlies in future to correct North.

    It's good to see most in with a chance over my birthday weekend. I'm in Wales and gutted as I live in sweet spot but should see some on Sunday on my return. I have to say I do quite well for snow on my birthday, despite many saying it's too late for snow, poppycock ❄⛄❄

    ezgif-2-208d785591.gif

    How come this show lots of snowfall in Scotland when we’ve only been forecast the odd shower? Is there a chance that the Forcasts are well off the mark?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    But a fair way south to have the same solution by 54-( V the IKON) no correction North.

    Infact lots & lots of snow for the south overnight sat into Sun..

    940E6739-6A9A-4B83-8C44-7FEAD0E0AEAD.thumb.png.f22100ecd67c1caf52101ec514640f07.pngBB63E100-52CF-4131-941F-3E494D1D1A69.thumb.png.3ec6635e0c0f6e85545eb3c9f6a14921.pngD51F2A9D-EE95-42F3-B1F8-A24E1864B353.thumb.png.63a1e9a02e947ec817ced2a244388e23.png

     

    Yup, perfectly placed for a snow event here in Southampton... won't feel too dissimilar to the 1st March with the cloud cover, strong winds and a fair chance of an ice day.

    Obviously GFS is poor at picking up convection but I think NE England looks good for Sunday as well. Saturday looks good for widespread convective snow showers too. Whilst Friday's front could also be quite active at times as it moves back down south.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    18z Hirlam fair correction South @T30 with rain turning to snow in EA & the NE around 11-12 friday night

    Snow for London by 7am- thats the window open

    1D5DEAEE-32C6-4C54-8FBE-8018B55C14A5.thumb.png.f4703d71955629af58fac553c55de40f.pngC6B2C3C4-54AF-4650-A03D-F3D88AB720A6.thumb.png.0f87d70f5f49366c14e0bad61b33c015.png

    42 18z v 48 12z

    6D316428-5FA3-4986-95B8-1BC793566917.thumb.png.8ba708ab805028f631e304c3ab462e4d.png10CCD8AE-D08D-4C54-8637-B587E29C0957.thumb.png.2c0c3eb00d6cf6099cc607dbe79037cf.png

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in here! 
    Other options:
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    For more focused short-range model discussion:
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