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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

-14 850's into parts of the SE at t78

78-7.thumb.GIF.d3bb20a481354fb2054887f45f129e21.GIF

 

Hmm, lets just think about that for a moment

-14 850s at T78 ............... In mid march!!!!!!!!

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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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This is exactly why it annoys the hell out of me, only the other day all the panic and doom about it all going to far south. Why do people panic when they all no the models will have wobble variances along the way before they correct nearer the time. It’s almost like certain people like to try and wind people up on here knowing that in reality the models will change again.

so when we get beast 3 let’s not panic when it all goes south a week or so before the event ?

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2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

This is exactly why it annoys the hell out of me, only the other day all the panic and doom about it all going to far south. Why do people panic when they all no the models will have wobble variances along the way before they correct nearer the time. It’s almost like certain people like to try and wind people up on here knowing that in reality the models will change again.

so when we get beast 3 let’s not panic when it all goes south a week or so before the event ?

It's way it is people pick charts that suit their personal preferences coldies go for those that show maximum amount snow Warm lovers for those that show Heatwaves. Like a sweet shop and forgetting upgrades and downgrades inevitable before the true picture emerges

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1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

This is exactly why it annoys the hell out of me, only the other day all the panic and doom about it all going to far south. Why do people panic when they all no the models will have wobble variances along the way before they correct nearer the time. It’s almost like certain people like to try and wind people up on here knowing that in reality the models will change again.

so when we get beast 3 let’s not panic when it all goes south a week or so before the event ?

Maybe cut down on the strong wording? 

Yes it did turn out to be a wobble it seems but you can't blame people for being on edge. In January 2005 we had a beast showing until T48, in December 2012 it was T96. Although modelling is improving, past experience has taught us to be cautious. Most of us want the same thing lol.

The southward movement looked to be a trend for quite some time and it could have easily come off. In uncertain times a glass half empty and glass half full opinion are valid. However looks like this time we have succeeded again thankfully.

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3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Maybe cut down on the strong wording? 

Yes it did turn out to be a wobble it seems but you can't blame people for being on edge. In January 2005 we had a beast showing until T48, in December 2012 it was T96. Although modelling is improving, past experience has taught us to be cautious. Most of us want the same thing lol.

The southward movement looked to be a trend for quite some time and it could have easily come off. In uncertain times a glass half empty and glass half full opinion are valid. However looks like this time we have succeeded again thankfully.

Yeah fair enough don’t mean anything by it, it’s just a bit annoying at times. Anyway in general it’s great in here and it’s good to be part of a weather enthusiasts group, enjoy whatever nature throws at us. Suppose it’s back to the models we go

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18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

18Z lost the plot? or time of year? sure if this was Dec, we'd be looking at sub zero maximums off this? if 18Z right, time of year to give a fast thaw

ukmaxtemp.pngh850t850eu.png

Time of year. By that point uppers of -5 to -8c will easily see 4-6c in strong sunshine. Get heavy cloud cover though and its a different story. In the winter months those uppers given the sheer depth of cold over the weekend would be pretty much guaranteed to be an ice day.

Despite headline temps anything falling out of the sky would still be white!

Edited by Jason M
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27 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

That's more like it ?IMG_0473.thumb.PNG.b133f66aa1d3647a71b66ad8e69f1d73.PNG

Another channel Streamer...? The last one was a great example from the first Beast probably one of the best I’ve seen on the UK radar. Would be good to see another one similar it was a thing of beauty. 

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Another very interesting few days coming up model watching but with regards to if and where the snow falls it will be a case of looking say Friday night.HIRLAM performed pretty well in last cold spell and was very accurate for the snow that fell in the South on Friday 2nd March that moved up from France.Also looks like rain may turn to snow in NE England/E Scotland Friday evening and saturday morning,something that hasn't been commented much on here(maybe one for Regional Threads)

.

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Not had much time to post today because busy with work, etc, but it looks like the runs this evening, including the 18z GFS, are extending the cold into next week, with slower inclination to sink the high. Often the case the models are too quick by a day or 2, to sink cold surface highs and bring in milder westerlies.

Looks like snow showers will form bands like last cold spell, so some spots seeing a lot while down the road much less. 

Re: temperatures, cloud cover makes all the difference in March, soon as the sun comes out temps will climb quickly in late March, cloud cover or under snow showers and they’ll not get much above freezing.

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11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No sign of the updated fax charts .

No day 3 ,4 , or 5 out yet.

Perhaps they’ve been embargoed to stop the  supermarket shelves from being emptied! 

I was thinking along the same lines there Nick, been waiting all evening for them and zilch. 

Maybe its the PPN thats showing on the GFS 18z control thats worrying them, and I'm thinking to myself that this might be closer to the mark as far as PPN goes than the op itself. Reminds me very much of the Feb 09 event which caused all the disruption in London and the SE.

Just as well its on a Sunday.:whistling: 

gens-0-2-90.png

gens-0-2-96.png

Edited by snowray
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image.thumb.png.ae479782d36eacb2f8625e660390072c.png

So latest swingometer before I call it an evening. A real firming up of a direct hit from the easterly. I still think that purple line could go up as a few more runs prolong the cold uppers under the high early next week for a bit longer.

One that does manage to keep the cold going is the control. I think on this run another cold shot makes its way into central Europe with somewhat chilly uppers getting caught up around the high.

Second thing is that the op picks up on little areas of instability to our SSW around Monday. Doesn't prevent the high from sinking yet but a more sustained flow of energy will and if one of the distubances bumps into our cold air then some may enjoy a bonus snow event (would be difficult to achieve this though).

The third most difficult option is if our high somehow ridges to Scandinavia and catches some cold air underneath it during the process. However no runs show this yet.

After a serious wobble this morning no going back now I don't think. A slow warm up does look like the most likely option but a few twists may come which help prolong the chilly conditions. 2 beasts in one month deserves a very low CET, especially when its in March!

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Putting aside the uncertainty over where the showers might hit. There is likely to be an area of more persistent snow working westwards.

This if it does happen is more likely to effect the far south , but the models aren’t sure how far north this might get.

It may just head along the Channel effecting northern France and the Channel Islands conversely it might get further north.

Something to keep an eye on over the next few runs.

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:


Second thing is that the op picks up on little areas of instability to our SSW around Monday. Doesn't prevent the high from sinking yet but a more sustained flow of energy will and if one of the distubances bumps into our cold air then some may enjoy a bonus snow event (would be difficult to achieve this though).
 

Doesn't really matter if the high sinks or not, the colder flow is cut off and milder air is making it's way round the the high and approaching from off the North Sea by late Monday.

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1 minute ago, Interitus said:

Doesn't really matter if the high sinks or not, the colder flow is cut off and milder air is making it's way round the the high and approaching from off the North Sea by late Monday.

I don't think anyone is expecting such intense cold uppers to persist in mid March lol, however if the high doesn't sink we stay in relatively chilly air with potential retrogression and a northerly reload.

Temperatures in the arctic are set to drop below normal so it would be a good time to catch a potent late northerly. Though retrogression does appear unlikely it's microscale features that could make a difference so it can't be ruled out just yet.

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Is meteociel down? 

Also it seems that the easterly this weekend coincides with the reversal of the strat. With the peak of the reversal happening on Saturday and the peak occurring on Tuesday then I wonder if the models have a good grasp on something which hasnt happened yet, and when the reversal does happen would we see a sudden 'flip' in the models..

Edited by Panayiotis
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24 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I don't think anyone is expecting such intense cold uppers to persist in mid March lol, however if the high doesn't sink we stay in relatively chilly air with potential retrogression and a northerly reload.

Temperatures in the arctic are set to drop below normal so it would be a good time to catch a potent late northerly. Though retrogression does appear unlikely it's microscale features that could make a difference so it can't be ruled out just yet.

Late season Northerlys are great . Easter 2008 last one I remember.... Snow settled as far South as London, and think it was late March

Edited by BlackburnChris
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Looking at the latest GFS and fax run I don't buy how they are showing the Scandinavian high weakening and sinking southWest between Sunday and Monday like they want it to,

I believe we may see an upgrade into the position of the HP in the coming couple of days ,also I don't buy next weeks charts either ,just watch them change in the coming couple of days 

Back to the here and now East anglia and the southeast should be in for a battering Sunday into Monday according to pub run:hi:

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27 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Irish contingent will be happy including a certain someone in Cork. Good for pretty much most of us on here i'd have thought...except far north Scotland maybe.

UW72-21.GIF

 

P.S ICON has been superb. Great model.

 

Yes huge upgrade on overnight runs with UKMO, Argepe and GEM all moving cold pool through spine of UK and Ireland. This is what ICON has been showing for days and this model remains steadfast over night. GFS also further north  compared  to last few runs but not as good as other models. Over now to ECM ..... 

 

Edit: All models showing brisk east to northeast winds so snow showers blowing well inland....

Edited by Bottled Snow
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5 hours ago, BlackburnChris said:

Late season Northerlys are great . Easter 2008 last one I remember.... Snow settled as far South as London, and think it was late March

In 2008 snow settled in London in the 1st week of April. It was that good :)

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