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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    ECM ... half the country in the minus 12/13 uppers by midday Saturday. North to South. Done deal??

     

    What a good winter this has been. :D oh and spring!!

    IMG_0713.PNG

    IMG_0714.PNG

    Edited by That ECM
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    The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

    No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

    Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM T96: Minus 10 uppers for all except north Highlands. Still minus 12/13c down south. 500mb Cold pool has pushed through but looks bigger than before, probably engulfed the whole of England/Wales on Saturday night.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
    23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    So from a brief look at the models before leaving work, it seems the position is:

    ICON upgrade

    GFS upgrade

    UKMO significant upgrade

    GEM upgrade

    ARPEGE not so good, sinks the high early Monday.

    So my interest in this spell is renewed, certainly.

    i'm still struck by the depth of cold reaching the UK, GFS has -14C or -15C at T90:

    gfs-1-90.png?12

    Maybe worth noting how cold the North Sea actually is at the moment:

    sstuk.gif

    We await the ECM with interest.

    Paul Hudson mentioned how cold North sea is last night, I don't think I've known it to be this cold for a very long time, in previous years I've noticed its got down to around 7'C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM T120: upper instability has gone, but still going to be very cold with uppers minus 7 to minus 10. No breakdown from the south this time!

    Can we get a trough out of Saturday/Sunday? Situation looks favourable to me. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

    I suppose for those who get the snow very cold nighttime temps would freeze it with high pressure in control thereafter. A very different outcome to the last episode.

    06229A36-A708-46A7-9E5E-F0BA6DD5B024.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Still a cold breeze/wind on Monday virtually all of England and Wales under -7 850's at least a few in the SW see -10

    ECM t120

    ECU1-120.GIF.thumb.png.90811dca3240b89c25d06d6463c39ef0.pngECU0-120.GIF.thumb.png.383fc790d3410dabe04836ee4d2ff2fd.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Pressure building at t144 but we still have a nagging breeze and 850's down to -7 for some

    ECU1-144.GIF.thumb.png.8596c30e64d6de698a3eff9d47245df0.pngECU0-144.GIF.thumb.png.856d77ac3278ba2fe22b50de29e89365.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    40 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    So does that include the weekend or say upto Friday? 

    Your cold extension threshold is quite high . :D

     

    Lol up until saturday.... for now :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Midweek sees the nagging wind getting cut off allowing some less cold air to slowly move in still chilly but temps probably up a bit (still below the seasonal average)

    ECU1-168.GIF.thumb.png.48b23fb6ff9dce6bf35a0a7a8bda6092.pngECU0-168.GIF.thumb.png.6c634a8a38a2d86358ad30472f4bb212.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Some slightly milder air in the south but colder air returns for the north as the high sinks south towards the end of next week

    ECU1-192.GIF.thumb.png.29cdc6043560dca02928148d550ffdc7.pngECU0-192.GIF.thumb.png.1dd85e56050f14204bb1d09feabc3bb9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    So it looks like around two days of convection Saturday into Sunday , perhaps a touch longer in the far se and then drier but still cold on the ECM for Monday and Tuesday.

    Plenty of time for some good snow totals and then sledging for the lucky areas. :)

    If this is to be winters last hurrah then at least it goes out with a bang .

     

    Not sure a bang is what is on the cards Nick unless there is some serious convection achieved. Just looks cold to me with a covering in specific areas, i.e. somewhere around the Wash and Kent. Dusting at best for central Anglia.

    Please correct me if you find that wrong (at this stage).

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    JMA is the only model from 12z runs that doesn't get the -8 850's into central Scotland

    J84-7.thumb.GIF.8e4f56af5b0864e69be34bbe5962367e.GIFJ96-7.thumb.GIF.168f9ee868fd0f7d6a31e16b236ae47a.GIFJ108-7.thumb.GIF.373bb820b58815626365575b82a0a469.GIF

    J84-21.thumb.GIF.ba1cce16d27b5a257eea5a648dbdcf10.GIFJ96-21.thumb.GIF.78637930e15307aa62079b207c1de947.GIFJ108-21.thumb.GIF.5835baea02121376dc7e80318229def8.GIF

    Given all the others have shifted the high further north you'd think the odds on JMA flipping to this by tomorrow would be quite high

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    For this time of year, these charts are incredible from the Ecm 12z and there could be some disruptive snow out of this, especially across the south, almost unheard of to get 2 Beasts within such a short space of time..enjoy it coldies!:):cold:

    72_thickuk.png

    72_mslp850uk.png

    72_mslp850.png

    96_thickuk.png

    96_mslp850uk.png

    96_thick.png

    96_mslp850.png

    120_thickuk.png

    120_mslp850uk.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Very welcome northward adjustments on most of the main players on the 12z runs. Perfect easterly hit this Saturday running into Sunday. This should create some significant convection. Just hope the colder than normal north sea doesn't temper things too much. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    10 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

    Not sure a bang is what is on the cards Nick unless there is some serious convection achieved. Just looks cold to me with a covering in specific areas, i.e. somewhere around the Wash and Kent. Dusting at best for central Anglia.

    Please correct me if you find that wrong (at this stage).

    As with convection it can be be hit and miss . There is a possibility though of some streamers setting up which means lucky areas could be under a constant stream of showers.

    Troughs etc we’ll have to wait till nearer the time. It really  depends on strength of the flow and direction , depth of cold etc.

    Once within T48 hours things will be clearer. 

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    44 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Yes ^^ Snow cold & instability extends from early doors Sat to Late Sunday-

    More than enough time for inches of snow to fall

    Entry point smoothes to around Suffolk / North Kent of the core - Circa 2009 Feb...

    Yes it's not bad for time of year but as I have said before the models are crap at predictING cold weather charts beyond 5 days 

    3 days ago they predicted high pressure blocking to our NE ,then being replaced by another to our NO pulling N,NE winds for the second half of next week  now they are going for the Scandinavian high to sink southwestard bringing a much short end cold spell of 3 days max ,unbelievable, and to top it all the AO today is now going to go plus 2 positive by mid next week,a bad day and if you wanted a last extended cold spell  but a good day for looking forward to hopefully a snowy weekend  for most 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UKMO extended has low pressure a bit closer by at t168 thus increasing the chances of some rain in the west

    ukm2.2018032112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.35b5fa73eab1e978daba25fdefd1d854.png

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    39 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    So it looks like around two days of convection Saturday into Sunday , perhaps a touch longer in the far se and then drier but still cold on the ECM for Monday and Tuesday.

    Plenty of time for some good snow totals and then sledging for the lucky areas. :)

    If this is to be winters last hurrah then at least it goes out with a bang .

     

    But the GFS Control run may have a bang aftershock to follow at the end of the month Nick.

    image.thumb.png.000a1fb25806080bd892a2afbf9eeaa9.png

    :laugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Quick comparison of the ECM op and ensemble mean at T96:

    ECM1-96.GIF?14-0

    EDM1-96.GIF

    Ens mean looks to have the high a little further north so I think in the round the 12s upgrade the cold snap and the potential for snow.  Will be interesting to follow this over the next couple of days to see what transpires at the weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    6 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

    Life in the middle of the snow IMG_0467.thumb.PNG.faeb9d07642070bce30356edb344d45d.PNG

    Arpege 12z shows a gap as well obviously impossible to take this overly seriosuly this far out

    snowdepth_102.thumb.jpg.c23d4489b06f4f418c65279c683ea4e2.jpg

     

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