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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    2 hours ago, Purga said:

    True - and shockingly mild throughout most of the UK according to GFS 06z

    image.thumb.png.19d16a7b690756716f2d455128f801e6.png

    :laugh:

    BBQ chart for sure haha just kidding.

    Until we see the models place the northern blocking then it's difficult to say if it a cold spell or cold snap.

    But generally it's a pretty good weekend for the south for perhaps as Steve says a last roar out like a lion.

    Certainly a good winter for learning about atmospheric dynamics.

    But either way I've had my snow fix better late than never.

    Models have done pretty well to this winter.

    Let's hope beyond march into April and summer we have continued strong heights for a good BBQ summer.

    But back to the hear and now,

    summer sun might have to wait awhile longer to panic buy sun tan lotion.

    But the models don't really suggest blizzard conditions although upper 850s are pretty impressive.

    Could be some surprises depending on how unstable the atmosphere incoming will be.

    I wouldn't rule out some convection.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, high pressure builds in early next week with a fine spell for most of the uk, temps slowly recovering from tuesday but still below average and the north / west gradually become more unsettled with the fine weather hanging on longest further southeast where there would also be further night frosts. Eventually all areas turn unsettled with wind / rain before it becomes colder and brighter from the northwest towards the end of next week with showers becoming wintry on northern hills. Further ahead continues generally changeable / unsettled with nothing particularly mild indicated so still a risk of widespread night frosts and also a chance of snow, at least on high ground further north with hints of a possible northerly towards the end of week 2.:)

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

    Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, high pressure builds in early next week with a fine spell for most of the uk, temps slowly recovering from tuesday but still below average and the north / west gradually become more unsettled with the fine weather hanging on longest further southeast where there would also be further night frosts. Eventually all areas turn unsettled with wind / rain before it becomes colder and brighter from the northwest towards the end of next week with showers becoming wintry on northern hills. Further ahead continues generally changeable / unsettled with nothing particularly mild indicated so still a risk of snow on high ground further north with hints of a possible northerly towards the end of week 2.:)

    Indeed northerly can still bring potential even into April.

    Good post frosty pretty much a good reflection of things to come.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    A fabulous chart from NASA again for Sunday

    image.thumb.png.1429c7e8cf3a3138623b9052f830deae.png

    knocking on -16 uppers over EA / SE !

    :yahoo:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Afternoon all :)

    None of this should come as a surprise - the transition from winter to spring frequently sees alternating cold and warm air-masses cross the British Isles. With the Atlantic moribund and an SSW recently happened, the strength of the Continental cold mass has been rather greater this year and both this weekend and indeed throughout FI the truth is the "war" of the air masses will last for some time yet.

    Ordinarily, we'd see the jet stream moving north as the Azores HP becomes more influential and the SW'lies become more TM and less PM in flavour and that lifts the temperatures nicely through March into April (15 or 20c anyone ?).

    This year, it's very difficult with a slack Atlantic and a disorganised jet the continental air flow has had opportunities to advect further west as troughs have disrupted SE into Europe and in the absence of an organised PV, there's nothing much pushing in the Atlantic. 

    Ironically for fans of cold the push of the HP SW into the Atlantic actually gives the Azores a kick and helps bring back milder air briefly but the weak Atlantic continues to incline toward a negative tilt and a SE'ly dive into Europe leaving a very cold stagnant air mass to the NE waiting for an opportunity to move SW.

    Between that cold air mass and the warmth far to the SW, the trough remains supreme over the British Isles so we get rain and cooler conditions as we are in the battle ground for much of the time. The likely scenario is the Atlantic will fire up into April and "normal service" will return but until then E'ly or NE'ly incursions can't be discounted and are likely to be a feature of the Ensemble Members.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    11 minutes ago, Purga said:

    A fabulous chart from NASA again for Sunday

    image.thumb.png.1429c7e8cf3a3138623b9052f830deae.png

    knocking on -16 uppers over EA / SE !

    :yahoo:

    1

    Spring warmth we have a problem

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Spring warmth we have a problem

    Or - Whitney we have lift off.

    Icon keeps potent e'ly going much longer with an Iconic run.

    iconnh-0-114_bdi4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Or - Whitney we have lift off.

    Icon keeps potent e'ly going much longer with an Iconic run.

    iconnh-0-114_bdi4.png

    Re-phrase feb1991 as "Icon - the leading trend setter - keeps potent e'ly going much longer with an Iconic run."

    :good:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Or - Whitney we have lift off.

    Icon keeps potent e'ly going much longer with an Iconic run.

    iconnh-0-114_bdi4.png

    image.thumb.png.dc42c41cee43d18ea2ad73c6286a2d6a.png

    Keep an eye for this feature on Monday, if it develops enough then it may keep the high pressure propped up and therefore keep the cold going for longer.

    Some very subtle hints it may develop on the 06z, although the members still sunk the high.

    Our last chance to prolong the cold. May provide a surprise snow event for one or two.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

    GFS 12z speeding up the arrival of the cold air

    12z

    gfs-1-72.thumb.png.e24d5088b9d53b0741d9833910348781.png

    06z

    gfs-1-78.thumb.png.50ec100f895a0cb8e4d3fef8f1bd511f.png

    Yup and a speedier arrival means more northern areas could get in on the act.

    The uncertainties continue, the swingometer will be looking pretty messy at this rate... :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Uckfield, Sussex
  • Location: Uckfield, Sussex
    Just now, Summer Sun said:

    GFS 12z speeding up the arrival of the cold air

    12z

    gfs-1-72.thumb.png.e24d5088b9d53b0741d9833910348781.png

    06z

    gfs-1-78.thumb.png.50ec100f895a0cb8e4d3fef8f1bd511f.png

    Is it wanting to take that cold air ever so slightly further north as well?

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    2 minutes ago, Audaxian said:

    Is it wanting to take that cold air ever so slightly further north as well?

    Yeah -12 line is further north on the 12z

    gfs-1-90.thumb.png.22211a0670b07367563e1572c04bff7f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Or - Whitney we have lift off.

    Icon keeps potent e'ly going much longer with an Iconic run.

    iconnh-0-114_bdi4.png

    hopefully like this great snow day!

    archives-1997-1-1-12-0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Significant push north from GFS much like ECM so far all models have either remained same or pushed north.

    BAD0D9C3-E50C-4506-8E64-0F0213D28FB4.thumb.png.e74cb48ab3e8a5e990d7fe3e46a13c33.png65B45C2E-E130-41EF-B2BD-B4983979DFB6.thumb.png.eefd4c0ef7348dbc530e649d19e00911.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Uckfield, Sussex
  • Location: Uckfield, Sussex

    Starting to look like the models are following a similar pattern to last time: 1) spot the easterly in FI; 2) toy with dropping it; 3) bring it back again, but then gradually sink it south over a few runs; 4) correct back north again closer to the actual event.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    UKMO day 4 versus yesterdays day 5

    UW96-21.GIF?14-16   vs UW120-21.GIF?13-12

    That is a significant shift in the speed the cold arrives and a northwards shift as well which increases the chance of more widespread snowfall.

    GFS

    gfs-0-96.png?12

    The cold pool is slightly slower but more intense which would bring heavier precipitation to favoured spots. Again this is further north than this mornings runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Easterly getting cut off by Monday still cold though it shouldn't feel too bad in any sunshine with shelter sharp frosts overnight

    UW120-21.thumb.GIF.ae0b2c64d385896e1ba9e14aa13c9a8f.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMO further north

    Today

    UW96-21.thumb.GIF.5323d93ee16dd3cc4699ce56cebb3498.GIF

    Yesterday

    UW120-21.thumb.GIF.3618ba3b98983947587d0ea68e8e4efa.GIF

     

    Very very interesting chart there with the unstable air significantly further WNW. Question is can a low from the Atlantic phase with it and undercut the high before it sinks. Further corrections north and that becomes a real possibility.

    From what seemed like a sinking feeling this morning, I'm not quite so sure now....

    Nice try from the 12z but not quite there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Easterly getting cut off by Monday still cold though it shouldn't feel too bad in any sunshine with shelter sharp frosts overnight

    UW120-21.thumb.GIF.ae0b2c64d385896e1ba9e14aa13c9a8f.GIF

    Meanwhile GFS says a firm NO a continuation of snow showers in the S/E albeit more scattered.

    CBE06161-2FD7-41F4-A2CB-2BF8569AA3D4.thumb.png.c50df940819ecc9c74dcba850c766435.pngD4968BAA-E66A-4658-8DBA-DD3224E205E8.thumb.png.b0cd1db3dbd68f2f6ec58e5dbcd50c2e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

    Hmm yes so not only is the cold pool a little faster and wider, but there's more of a disturbance developing over N France during Sunday. Perhaps these are interlinked.

    h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

    Not only that but the Atlantic trough has more of a negative tilt on the eastern flank. If shown this chart in isolation I'd expect the ridge to at least stand firm for a few days, and perhaps even move NW a little and become a cut-off feature. Let's see if the run bluntly flattens it anyway as has been the habit of recent ECM runs despite having no positive trough tilt on Monday.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in here! 
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