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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Pub run upgrades the cold pool more extensive area of -16C uppers while being a tad more S.

    E4D23A96-1B12-41CA-9FB5-955565E08215.thumb.png.485ea901d40e59d19e8dbb46c373edf8.png949131AD-0137-4FEB-AAA3-2C58C90489C5.thumb.png.61a780bfa48ea91451318d7edf6ab061.png

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    The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

    No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

    Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    It was about this long before the last Easterly that all the models had that little wobble and then  the day after they settled back again. Let’s give it another 24–36 hours.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well cold comes in many forms, we've seen that over the last couple of weeks, GFS 18z at T102 has a purple snake thing about to lick the cliffs of Dover with forked tongue:

    gfs-1-102.png?18

    But to the more important point re longevity of the spell, it does look like the high is going to sink, T126:

    gfs-0-126.png?18

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Interesting that ukmo has been pretty solid on it’s track with slight northward correction today whilst the other models have slowly drifted further south with the cold pool. Spreads on ecm show that a northward correction is still feasible. There is currently no reason to think that the cold pool will trend any further south  than ukmo 12z has  it. (Unless you live in cork that is)

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

    It was about this long before the last Easterly that all the models had that little wobble and then  the day after they settled back again. Let’s give it another 24–36 hours.  

    You may be right. However, the southward shift could gather even more momentum over the next day or two and only the channel islands see anything remotely resembling an easterly. Seen this happen many times over the years. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    gfs-1-96.png?18

    The southward correction continues on tonight's 18 run. If this trend continues a lot of the UK and Ireland will not get any easterly (away from southeast uk)

    Maybe, maybe not. Though Cork is always the last station on the track whereas easterlies are concerned. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
    24 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    You've said that 3 times in 3 different posts , think we get that you want it to push south . But I for one hope it corrects north and prolongs for longer . ?

    If it was progged to be more than a 24-36 hour window for some temporary snow followed by a rapid thaw in an ever strengthening sun, then I would be game for it to go north again. However, the sun is now almost as strong as the last third of september and therefore even if there was some last season snow (for some) its gonna be gone in a blink according to most charts from Tuesday onwards. -5c uppers end of march roughly equates to 7 or 8 degrees. If this was mid to end of February, I would be all for it. However its going to be brief by the looks of it and the trend has been south by all major models and therefore any substantial snow which lasts more than a few hours for most people just isnt likely to happen. Just like when the summer is often wet and cool then mid to end of September we have a late surge of heat. Yes it's nice for some, but it doesnt last and the evenings drawing in quickly soon take away the enjoyment of the daytime dwindling sunshine.

    Why these charts have to show up when its almost too late. I understand that many significant snow events have happened during march and indeed April but require absolutely exceptional circumstances. Yes -15c flirting with the east in mid to late march is special, its just not going to bring the same temps or dew points as it would if it were to occur in jan or Feb for instance, when the days are shorter and the sun weaker.

    The beast from two weeks ago was fantastic for most people who enjoy that kind of weather including myself. However, now the daffs are out and the sun is ever higher in the sky I just want some warmer/milder weather now going into proper spring soon. A few hours of snow and more central heating followed by a rapid thaw is not what im looking for from this time onwards. Those who do then that's absolutely fine too.

    Edited by SizzlingHeat
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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
    4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

    It was about this long before the last Easterly that all the models had that little wobble and then  the day after they settled back again. Let’s give it another 24–36 hours.  

    Exactly what I was trying to say in my post.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    The cold pool tickles Cork......

    GFSOPUK18_132_2-1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    You may be right. However, the southward shift could gather even more momentum over the next day or two and only the channel islands see anything remotely resembling an easterly. Seen this happen many times over the years. 

    Yep it might indeed, or it might not. Will have a better idea in another 24–36 hours as I say. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Knaphill, Surrey (57m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, big storms and extreme weather
  • Location: Knaphill, Surrey (57m ASL)
    6 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

    If it was progged to be more than a 24-36 hour window for some temporary thaw followed by a rapid thaw in an ever strengthening sun, then I would be game for it to go north again. However, the sun is now almost as strong as the last third of september and therefore even if there was some last season snow (for some) its gonna be gone in a blink according to most charts from Tuesday onwards. -5c uppers end of march roughly equates to 7 or 8 degrees. If this was mid to end of February, I would be all for it. However its going to be brief by the looks of it and the trend has been south by all major models and therefore any substantial snow which lasts more than a few hours for most people just isnt likely to happen. Just like when the summer is often wet and cool then mid to end of September we have a late surge of heat. Yes it's nice for some, but it doesnt last and the evenings drawing in quickly soon take away the enjoyment of the daytime dwindling sunshine.

    Why these charts have to show up when its almost too late. I understand that many significant snow events have happened during march and indeed April but require absolutely exceptional circumstances. Yes -15c flirting with the east in mid to late march is special, its just not going to bring the same temps or dew points as it would if it were to occur in jan or Feb for instance, when the days are shorter and the sun weaker.

    The beast from two weeks ago was fantastic for most people who enjoy that kind of weather including myself. However, now the daffs are out and the sun is ever higher in the sky I just want some warmer/milder weather now going into proper spring soon. A few hours of snow and more central heating followed by a rapid thaw is not what im looking for from this time onwards. Those who do then that's absolutely fine too.

    Lost count of the number of times you contradicted yourself there! Maybe you count them and tell me! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
    1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

    The cold pool tickles Cork......

    GFSOPUK18_132_2-1.png

    To be fair Chino your analysis of the recent strat warming was second to none and have huge respect for your exceptional input.

    BUT don't you think this post is a little ott. There is a constant trend today to move things South and NONE of the models have differed. That's all I'm saying and I didn't say southeast wouldn't see snow. Why knock and beat folk who try to call it as they see it?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Nice FAX chart just out for +T120, not perfect I know but should give us a bit of peace of mind.:)

    Anyway lets hope that the rot south stops with tomorrows runs. 

    fax120s.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Certainly a trend on the 12z EC/GFS and now 18z GFS for drier E/NEly / weaker snow signal over the weekend compared to the runs this morning, most evident from the 12z EC high res - which has shunted heavier snow south across English Channel, Channel Islands and NW France Saturday night / Sunday morning, with the 500mb low/cold pool tracking further south. 

    This is why it's not worth forecasting snowfall potential for anywhere in detail this far out, suffice to say there will be some snow showers around. The track of the 500mb low still not nailed by any means, and there is still time for the track further north of the upper low and for lower surface pressure / moisture further north too - which will increase the threat of more widespread snow across parts of England and Wales.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Nice FAX chart just out for +T120, not perfect I know but should give us a bit of peace of mind.:)

    Anyway lets hope that the rot south stops with tomorrows runs. 

    fax120s.gif

    Looks like raw ukgm (as does the day 4) 

    so I doubt tha5 will allay the stresses

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    14 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    To be fair Chino your analysis of the recent strat warming was second to none and have huge respect for your exceptional input.

    BUT don't you think this post is a little ott. There is a constant trend today to move things South and NONE of the models have differed. That's all I'm saying and I didn't say southeast wouldn't see snow. Why knock and beat folk who try to call it as they see it?!

    Thanks, but there is no knocking here. I haven't said that there isn't a trend southwards either. And it isn't off topic but a little tongue in cheek, JS. I hope that you enjoyed your recent snow!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Six eps clusters as day 4

    down to three by day 5 (one of which has cut off upper ridge to our north at 24% though that soon sinks) 

    time for sleep and to wait and see where the cold pool is on the 00z suites

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Gfs 18z certainly shows a very cold weekend, especially across southern uk which is accentuated by the fresh to strong Easterly winds with max temps barely above freezing for some but there is very little snow, even in the south. That's not to say the next runs won't upgrade but this run shows temps recovering somewhat from next monday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Six eps clusters as day 4

    down to three by day 5 (one of which has cut off upper ridge to our north at 24%)

    time for sleep and to wait and see where the cold pool is on the 00z suites

    Hmm - I prefer the means at D4 tbh, just a personal view but now the GEFS and EPS mean has pretty much settled on a similar solution, I cant see it being too much different.

    And the JMA mean as well.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    49 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Nice FAX chart just out for +T120, not perfect I know but should give us a bit of peace of mind.:)

    Anyway lets hope that the rot south stops with tomorrows runs. 

    fax120s.gif

    Nice trough being shown on that fax chart for the SW, obviously will probably change though over the coming days. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    image.thumb.png.f1beb89af87a2be17b92fd8d1b9c99a1.png

    Not much change on the swingometer for the 18z's however a few runs do push things a little further south. A small number keep the really cold air away.

    In general the OP was probably further south then most other runs with the regards to the impact of the cold pool.

    However the control goes along a similar path. Quite a few more widespread snowy runs in there. However we can probably rule out the colder uppers holding on for the whole of next week (by that I mean -5C uppers).

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