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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

All models agree this evening on a cold frosty and mainly dry setup. 

Of course some coastal snow showers also

From what I can see there is quite a bit of model disagreement.

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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

All models agree this evening on a cold frosty and mainly dry setup. 

Of course some coastal snow showers also

What on Earth are you going on about? ICON especially is a bit of snow machine away from Scotland. Most models actually disagree with another with the angle of attack..

7D8D7FF1-A4C1-46CF-A3F0-95AD51567711.thumb.png.9167703bfd28cbefda8904ff85f56b3a.png

 

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Ground warming will effect inland convection at this time of year, so even if we don't see fronts delivering snowfall (which I think we could well see for some) there is a high chance of some beefy snow showers popping up quite widely away from the coasts due to the time of year.

One to watch if we do end up with 850s of -10/-15 inland as long as we are away from the centre of the high.

 

Edited by chris55
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3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

What on Earth are you going on about? ICON especially is a bit of snow machine away from Scotland. Most models actually disagree with another with the angle of attack..

7D8D7FF1-A4C1-46CF-A3F0-95AD51567711.thumb.png.9167703bfd28cbefda8904ff85f56b3a.png

 

Anyone else not get meteociel? 

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The ECM shows two days with sub -10 upper air over most of the UK.

That would be going some in mid winter so quite exceptional for the time of year .

Later the high sinks a bit more quickly than earlier runs but really hard to complain when in the space of a few weeks the UK would have seen a rarity in recent years. 

Two convective easterlies.

There are still differences with the speed of the incoming cold pool and the UKMO is still less bullish so on to tomorrow morning where hopefully that will backtrack.

 

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21 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

All models agree this evening on a cold frosty and mainly dry setup. 

Of course some coastal snow showers also

Mate... Really-- lol

you said the same thing about 14 days ago... 

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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM shows two days with sub -10 upper air over most of the UK.

That would be going some in mid winter so quite exceptional for the time of year .

Later the high sinks a bit more quickly than earlier runs but really hard to complain when in the space of a few weeks the UK would have seen a rarity in recent years. 

Two convective easterlies.

There are still differences with the speed of the incoming cold pool and the UKMO is still less bullish so on to tomorrow morning where hopefully that will backtrack.

 

Yes a sharp easterly with a high sinking south early next week looks the most likely option now, especially when you look at the swingometer which the ECM really backs.

The thing to avoid is corrections further south, a possibility but still unlikely at this point.

From this point on I could understand Mucka's frustration should the cold pool move even slightly south but it still looks good for the South and NE for some decent falls of snow and others to possibly get in on the act as things stand (yet to be resolved).

To get -15C uppers at this time of the year is incredible though a retrogression to Greenland and sustained cold look unlikely now. Still can't complain given we are into the meteorological spring.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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You've also got to factor in how the models will not have things nailed post 72/96 due to the unusual nature of the Synoptics. Expect lots of changes between now and next week regarding details and progression of the pattern :)

 

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Just when I was about to say that’s it a great way to say goodbye to winter the ECM dangles another carrot! :D

 

Yes, tbh I think this is just one of those winters (because of the SSW) like 2013 where I don't think we can rule out significant snow even for lowland areas in the South until literally we are into April and theres nothing at all showing on the models.

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6 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes a sharp easterly with a high sinking south early next week looks the most likely option now, especially when you look at the swingometer which the ECM really backs.

The thing to avoid is corrections further south, a possibility but still unlikely at this point.

From this point on I could understand Mucka's frustration should the cold pool move even slightly south but it still looks good for the South and NE for some decent falls of snow and others to possibly get in on the act as things stand (yet to be resolved).

To get -15C uppers at this time of the year is incredible though a retrogression to Greenland and sustained cold look unlikely now. Still can't complain given we are into the meteorological spring.

Last time that derailed the cold spell although it was west based so we were unfortunate. I wouldn’t rule out more longevity GFS 12Z keeps block further north and so cold feed isn’t cut off as quick. If this was to build it would become more than a snap with a continuation of snow risk there into next week most likely in S.

DC363AB3-6F95-421A-98C2-18449341E812.thumb.png.aef5133b75d9ec2d44cc211434dd5a1a.png28FCE696-E498-4E88-973C-DBAE6901F70B.thumb.png.4b5e119cd90bd9351f048970924e5e44.png

884DABD5-5497-4874-A427-7EEB3544A6BA.thumb.png.f4c6d2379f6f653288af39fa0cd5a4f2.png61114C88-503A-4982-B7C0-C2AB380469D2.thumb.png.91d1b2bc01eb408be4e4e3e24cc6f34b.png

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Keep an eye on that shortwave near Iceland around T168hrs , that heads around the high to the sw .

The Azores high displaces further west and that shortwave heads se , too far east on this run but you can see more deep cold to the ne if the pattern is retrogressed.

When exactly is the date of the strat reversal?  :whistling:

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The Ecm 12z shows a fantastic Easterly for the south this weekend with very cold and in places, snowy conditions..further north, especially scotland looks fine under high pressure and light winds with long sunny spells and clear frosty nights..good luck to those who end up in the sweet spot..probably the s / se!..:):cold:

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11 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Arpege also still going for the direct hit for most of the UK like the Icon. Long way to go yet. Probably Thursday 12z

 

BA8D2919-0986-417E-9FE7-AF086A82A02F.png

Also plenty of the ens members has the upper low feature running straight over the UK giving much heavier ppn for much of the UK :)

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12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Last time that derailed the cold spell although it was west based so we were unfortunate. I wouldn’t rule out more longevity GFS 12Z keeps block further north and so cold feed isn’t cut off as quick. If this was to build it would become more than a snap with a continuation of snow risk there into next week most likely in S.

DC363AB3-6F95-421A-98C2-18449341E812.thumb.png.aef5133b75d9ec2d44cc211434dd5a1a.png28FCE696-E498-4E88-973C-DBAE6901F70B.thumb.png.4b5e119cd90bd9351f048970924e5e44.png

884DABD5-5497-4874-A427-7EEB3544A6BA.thumb.png.f4c6d2379f6f653288af39fa0cd5a4f2.png61114C88-503A-4982-B7C0-C2AB380469D2.thumb.png.91d1b2bc01eb408be4e4e3e24cc6f34b.png

Yup if anything has been learnt from these beasts its how difficult it is to maintain the notable cold. With the one we saw two weeks ago the air was so unstable and cold it fired up the Azores low when the cold pool marched west. With this one there may be less of a westerly push causing the high to sink, the balance has to be just right.

The ECM is still intriguing though as the cold shot goes right across the UK. If a low were to form in that it would prevent a sinking high and likely boost any retrogression attempt. Still a possibility I think given the solar heating is likely to fire up a lot of showers which could become more organised. Small scale low pressure systems tend to pop up at short notice. The key time frame for determining the longevity of the cold is between T96 and T120 unless the cold is further south as per the UKMO. Whether we see something more sustained in terms of mild whether next week or if that is just a short interlude before another cold shot is also still uncertain.

A very topsy turvy month.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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16 minutes ago, cold snap said:

The ECM at 240 is ridiculous.

Another cold pool wating .beast from the east part 3 incoming.

Yes, and here it is, a veritable purple hound of cold entering stage right at T240:

ECM0-240.GIF?13-0

But I'm not convinced we need it, there's still a good chance this run went off the rails well before this - the earlier sinking of the high by no means a done deal, many options still on the table in the earlier time frames, more runs needed.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Just checked ECM. Beast from the East 3.0 anyone? Eurasia is extraordinarily cold the cold would not be out of place in mid winter. Maybe there is a solar influence here too? 

96E18012-CB8B-4899-A531-88F25B7D4CE5.thumb.png.46c00f74ad8673cc9cb93dc12648606e.png365B188C-B3F3-45B9-AA33-6ECE2D5E0267.thumb.png.fdee40ef6dbf8264a273eafad270c2f2.png

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20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Just when I was about to say that’s it a great way to say goodbye to winter the ECM dangles another carrot! :D

 

Yes it does ?. Look at that cold pool to the east / north east at Day 10 . That will be are easterly for next weekend ?. 

IMG_1946.PNG

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JMA brings -12's in during Saturday probably around northern England southwards

J108-7.thumb.GIF.9be4a973ad123e8e79b95adf71296b93.GIF

By Sunday southern Scotland south has 850's of at least -8

J120-7.thumb.GIF.daef3e826df917b733ee50c94169cb27.GIF

By Monday the coldest air moves south

J144-7.thumb.GIF.d2b8882786372e4bf62aef66fdd70cd2.GIF

We end with a westerly flow

J192-21.thumb.GIF.af55deabb115d2f90e1d139ca341bda9.GIFJ192-7.thumb.GIF.2868a396c744c048abf965b735b51d12.GIF

 

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