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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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No no no. Don’t need anything going further north !! Southerly correction please ! Need that low in Normandy to sink a bit more for us in the Channel Islands. Should hopefully get a good channel streamer with the setup though

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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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21 minutes ago, Dunlop Dave said:

No no no. Don’t need anything going further north !! Southerly correction please ! Need that low in Normandy to sink a bit more for us in the Channel Islands. Should hopefully get a good channel streamer with the setup though

You stole our snow 5 years ago!! We’ll have this one thanks ?

The 00z suite says it’s still very much game on fo a late winter last hurrah. As always at this time of year, the sun will be both friend and foe. Burning up any lying snow at a great rate of knots but providing copious amounts of energy for very heavy convective activity.

Not there yet still though. I’d say this one is a bit more finely balanced than the previous beasterly. Amazing synoptics to be looking at for mid March though.

 

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8 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

You stole our snow 5 years ago!! We’ll have this one thanks ?

The 00z suite says it’s still very much game on fo a late winter last hurrah. As always at this time of year, the sun will be both friend and foe. Burning up any lying snow at a great rate of knots but providing copious amounts of energy for very heavy convective activity.

Not there yet still though. I’d say this one is a bit more finely balanced than the previous beasterly. Amazing synoptics to be looking at for mid March though.

 

Ha. You stole the recent snow ! We got 5cm then hammered with rain and temps of 7c by the Friday. Tbf we lost a hell of a lot of trees back in ‘13. Winds got up to f10. Not keen for that again. 

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What gets me is it’s so rare to get easterly wind in any winter let alone two in one winter, but blooming heck we might well be getting two beasts in two weeks!!

that strong sun will develop some right big showers across the land more so than the last one imo.

anyone else missing tight isobar comments? 

Roll on the weekend

Edited by markw2680
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To me the current ecm output is looking at a shortlived cold snap rather than a cold spell. Snow is anyones guess away from the east and sadly it ties in with Darren Betts bbc extended forecast of mild again by the middle of next week. All this talk of a cold /snowy easter seems somewhat far fetched.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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any output past t120 is liable to change,and that includes the BBC forecasts too,what we can say is an extrodinary cold spell of weather for the time of year is nearly upon us,

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10 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

What gets me is it’s so rare to get easterly wind in any winter let alone two in one winter, but blooming heck we might well be getting two beasts in two weeks!!

that strong sun will develop some right big showers across the land more so than the last one imo.

anyone else missing tight isobar comments? 

Roll on the weekend

lot of posters seem to be missing in the run upto this cold spell.,very odd,thought this place would be heaving with comments and excitement,oh well their loss.another snowy spell of weather is almost certain for some places as we head towards the weekend.

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13 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

To me the current ecm output is looking at a shortlived cold snap rather than a cold spell. Snow is anyones guess away from the east and sadly it ties in with Darren Betts bbc extended forecast of mild again by the middle of next week. All this talk of a cold /snowy easter seems somewhat far fetched.

What ECM are you looking at?

The ECM 0z shows a cold Easterly then slighty less cold then a ridge building to Greenland. 

Do you have access to ECM data that we don't?

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Ice days just after mid March is incredible and that's what the 00z models are showing..and some snow too!:cold::)❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite a big upgrade this morning from the UKMO which at least gets the cold pool into the UK.

Its still the most southerly in terms of that with the others further north so perhaps it might edge further north in future outputs .

Overall it’s looking like a cold snap rather than spell.

The MODELS are reluctant to drive the next area of deeper cold to the nw sw into the UK. High presssure moves in with a toppling of that , so some frosty nights as that happens.

Even saying it’s a cold snap the ECM looks around 4 days from the start so it’s hardly a northerly toppler.

I do think we have to be realistic here, personally I’d rather have something short that delivers than a mediocre longer slush fest.

We can’t avoid the fact that to keep hold of deeper cold at this stage of the season is nigh on impossible given the increasing solar energy so let’s hope what verifies even if it’s shortish delivers.

the models don't control the weather:gathering: ,what a strange comment you made their.maybe wait for the ECM ensembles before writing off the length of this cold spell:gathering:

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I think everyone is still recovering from the last beast, hence it being less busy in here.

Easterlies seem to be like London buses - you wait for ages then two come along almost at once!

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13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite a big upgrade this morning from the UKMO which at least gets the cold pool into the UK.

Its still the most southerly in terms of that with the others further north so perhaps it might edge further north in future outputs .

Overall it’s looking like a cold snap rather than spell.

The models are reluctant to drive the next area of deeper cold to the ne sw into the UK. High presssure moves in with a toppling of that , so some frosty nights as that happens.

Even saying it’s a cold snap the ECM looks around 4 days from the start so it’s hardly a northerly toppler.

I do think we have to be realistic here, personally I’d rather have something short that delivers than a mediocre longer slush fest.

We can’t avoid the fact that to keep hold of deeper cold at this stage of the season is nigh on impossible given the increasing solar energy so let’s hope what verifies even if it’s shortish delivers.

The lack of a further undercut means the ridge drops across nw Europe - whether that the Azores ridge itself or the Azores ridge responding to upstream forcing - does it matter ? The result is the cold spell becomes more of a snap. The ICON (and gem which is feasible within the eps ) offer potential to extend cold (though probably not cold enough). However, ecm and it’s eps have been leading the way on this and at the moment it looks like a system will come in from the west as the ridge sinks away and merge with the sceuro trough to take us back more unsettled on the western edge of the broad euro trough. Staying cold but not freezing cold!

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The lack of a further undercut means the ridge drops across nw Europe - whether that the Azores ridge itself or the Azores ridge responding to upstream forcing - does it matter ? The result is the cold spell becomes more of a snap. The ICON (and gem which is feasible within the eps ) offer potential to extend cold (though probably not cold enough). However, ecm and it’s eps have been leading the way on this and at the moment it looks like a system will come in from the west as the ridge sinks away and merge with the sceuro trough to take us back more unsettled on the western edge of the broad euro trough. Staying cold but not freezing cold!

Slightly stronger signal in EPS this morning for something to perhaps build out west day 10 and beyond? 

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The lack of a further undercut means the ridge drops across nw Europe - whether that the Azores ridge itself or the Azores ridge responding to upstream forcing - does it matter ? The result is the cold spell becomes more of a snap. The ICON (and gem which is feasible within the eps ) offer potential to extend cold (though probably not cold enough). However, ecm and it’s eps have been leading the way on this and at the moment it looks like a system will come in from the west as the ridge sinks away and merge with the sceuro trough to take us back more unsettled on the western edge of the broad euro trough. Staying cold but not freezing cold!

That’s what I was getting at but you’ve explained it more clearly!

Theres a distinction between what can deliver more widely and non marginal versus something more normal in terms of March cold .

I’d better get my coat before I become persona non grata!  :D

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Anyway moving on.

The ECM ensembles have  quite a strong snow signal for De Bilt  for Friday into Saturday.

Looking at the latest fax chart we do see fronts moving west so probably tied in with that.

Last night I think someone mentioned with access to the non public info that the ECM also had that for the UK.

 

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18 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Slightly stronger signal in EPS this morning for something to perhaps build out west day 10 and beyond? 

Not seeing that - any upper ridging to our west looks more a slightly displaced Azores feature which would likely dumbell as systems came around the top and slippped into the euro trough - would be worth thinking about in jan/Feb re potential wintry consequences but very limited late March 

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Differences continue with the 500 mb anomaly charts, NOAA remains with ridging showing NW of the UK, the other two ECMWF-GFS as again this morning showing it somewhat further east, sorry not time to post charts

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Well here is the swingometer this morning!

image.thumb.png.2e3e218ee050488c0a1dfda39e55ce24.png

Pretty clear picture emerging there! A few things to note

1) The arrival of the cold pool seems to have been sped up to Saturday on many, ideally a slightest of nudge south would be more reassuring. 
2) There is a small risk the extreme south may not get a direct hit. Very small at this point though and the potential for greater snowfall is there. The op for example is very cyclonic with the easterly. Although the absolute coldest uppers may miss the far south the cloudy skies and more persistent snow will really hold maxima back (for the time of year).
3) It may be a sharp cold spell. In this case the weather settles down and slowly becomes milder. Some really cold overnight minima in this scenario would occur but the days would be rather pleasant though snow will thaw rather quickly.
4) However many ensemble members keep us in the cold air and have a very sweet retrogression to Greenland, some of the northerlies deliver uppers just as cold as the easterly! and it seems to be overlooked on here. Take a look at P10 and P16 for example.

Overall a very snowy weekend could occur with notably low temperatures for the time of year. A thaw is inevitable given the increasing strength of the sun but the convective potential may be greater. Alternatively a channel low with sufficiently cold uppers could prolong the start of a thaw.

A slow warm up then appears a little more likely. However this time of year is known for a weak Atlantic so don't be surprised if we get a retrogression to Greenland occurs with things remaining cold with another notable cold shot from the north.

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47 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Anyway moving on.

The ECM ensembles have  quite a strong snow signal for De Bilt  for Friday into Saturday.

Looking at the latest fax chart we do see fronts moving west so probably tied in with that.

Last night I think someone mentioned with access to the non public info that the ECM also had that for the UK.

 

An upper Low forecast to head w/sw from Denmark Saturday into Sunday on ECM and GFS

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

180313_0000_120.png

Knocks doing a great job on the short range discussing this.

 

Edited by winterof79
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