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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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17 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is that a bit of a ramp from you Nick?

you was on about a dry easterly 12 hours ago,i guess this has been an upgrade since then:)

there has certainly been upgrades since then Nick.

Yep, was looking a drier easterly on the 00z and 06z GFS, to back up my assumption this morning from those runs, pressure/heights were higher for Sunday and Monday and the 500mb cold pool (blue blob for those uninitiated), which is crucial for bigger snowmaking this time of year with colder North Sea SSTs compared to early winter, was much  further south and not crossing Sern UK as per 18z now.

GFSOPEU06_147_1.thumb.png.710cd72621dda352fc921e773f4dfc35.png 00z GFS for Sunday 6am GFSOPEU00_150_1.thumb.png.187ebda2052b309268ac708915070d26.png 06z GFS for Sunday 6am

So, yes, definitely an upgrade with regards to snowfall making compared to this morning, the cold arriving earlier and deeper too, which helps.

Edited by Nick F
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15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter have the day 5 fax as per the ukgm 

we saw prior to the last cold spell scandi high formation, that whilst ukmo got to grips with the shortwave dropping south, they initially went with their model day 5 before the following day they adjusted from it at day 5 (whilst the model was still wrong) 

It was interesting seeing that divergence between the fax & UKMO in the run up to the last cold spell. The automated forecast temperatures currently suggested for Sunday would suggest against the fax setup, Norwich (3) & Swansea (4).  Though I don't want to over analysis and just let the setup evolve. 

Edited by MattTarrant
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19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter have the day 5 fax as per the ukgm 

we saw prior to the last cold spell scandi high formation, that whilst ukmo got to grips with the shortwave dropping south, they initially went with their model day 5 before the following day they adjusted from it at day 5 (whilst the model was still wrong) 

Very disappointing that, however, at D6 on the FAX, there is a front straddling the spine of the country, the 528 line is much further East but the BBC raw charts show it as snow.

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

A nice northerly at the end of the 18z just in time for Easter ? ?

IMG_1931.PNG

IMG_1932.PNG

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It's been banging on the drum of this date for some runs now,more snow in easter than Christmas springs to mind,like i said earlier,spring on hold

still,lets see what the ukmo comes up with in the morning as that is the fly in the ointment at the moment,i would like to see that come aboard before we make judgement,but is on it's own at the moment.

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Very potent cold incoming again.  This Spring just isn’t going to kick in....not properly and for sone time.  

I like what the 18z does with a plunge from the North after this bitterly cold thrust as pressure builds to NW.

For me I believe this may be the year I’ve been waiting for...

 

BFTP

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image.thumb.png.a92e16b3a2f36fac78a20d3e98ef9c30.png

Swingometer updated once more. Very confident now that temperatures from the end of this week onwards will be much below average. More runs seeing direct hits from easterlies though that isn't set in stone just yet. A number still have the cold pool just clipping the SE or missing the really intense stuff.

Some spectacular runs in there though with very impressive northerlies later on following the easterlies. P18 is particularly eye catching!

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Hi guys....

I thought it might be worth copying in my post of Feb 23rd where I analysed BB's posts showing some of the more potent easterlies -

 

On ‎23‎/‎02‎/‎2018 at 20:59, johnholmes said:

thanks for that Mike I will take a look

I have been busy analysing the charts that BB produced to try and get some ideas of intensity of cold for each of the spells..

Below I present the results by month of the coldest 850that BB presented for the UK,  and also for the coldest part of the cold in that wave,(which since most of them are easterlies) is Europe. Where it is not I have indicated as such.

So the results are -

November                                                                                        December  

========                                                                                        ========

27/11/1890                                                                                        1/12/2010

-16C   (in UK)                                                                                     -16C    (In UK)

-20C  (In Europe)                                                                               -20C    (in Europe)

 

January

=======

12/1/1987      17/1/1940             21/1/1979                24/1/1947             31/1/1947         21/1/1881       

-18C                 -16C                     -16C                       -16C                        -16C                 -14C                      

-24C                -28C (Russia)        -21C                       -20C (Russia)          -16C                 -20C               

9/1/1979    30/1/1972

 -14C           -14C 

  -16C             -16C

 

17/ 1/1963      21/1/1982              7/1/1985               7/1/1891                                          

  -13C               -12C                      -12C                    -12C

  -22C               -28C (Russia)        -20C                    -16C

 

February

========

22/2/1956         7/2/1895     7/2/1991        13/2/1929      2/2/1963      28/2/1969                  20/2/1986                  

   -18C                -16C            -16C               -14C            -14C                -12C                          -12C                             

   -22C                -18C            -16C               -24C             -16C               -28C (Greenland)       -24C                     

 

7/2/1958       23/2/1947           26/2/1962        21/2/1942      

  -12C                -12C                      -12C             -12C 

  -20C                -20C                      -14C             -14C  

 

March

======

      1/3/2018                8/3/1917           5/3/1971    2/3/1965     11/3/2013                

     -16C (probable)          -14C                  -12C          -12C             -12C

     -20C                           -20C                 -20C           -16C             -16C        

 

A bit rough and ready, but it gives an indication.

Note as stressed by BB it does not show the impact of the winter, for that one needs to include longevity. 

Anyway - Where is your favourite winter?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

It is clear the upcoming event will be one of the most potent for many years if it comes off as is being depicted at the moment.

What will make it 'special' is the date - much later than anything else comparable,

MIA 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Only UKMO is real Scrooge is in the pack as is NAVGEM so I’m told but I shall not be losing any sleep over that I’d expect UKMO to come on board in the morning it surely has too..

A selection of the models at T120, very strongly evident signal now. Highly likely for return of beast a direct hit for England? The upcoming beast is the former beasts crazy ex wife, ploughing her way through not giving a toss at the collateral damage, seeking revenge after her husband went off with another woman! :D 

I disagree with some saying it’s looking dry higher likelihood there for significant snowfall, especially when you look at ECM / GFS / ARPEGE / GEM and ICON, unless it all crumbles apart the chance of that is slim to none. The pressure is lower and subsquent instability is arguably greater. Also with surface heating, fun. 

 61D1EDE2-C09C-4FA0-BFAA-9E1A17A97B35.thumb.png.87f0355ddc79a5bcd6d8fd6eb1052395.png.a55ce493ecb99ebfcef9690f52e3a16e.png61D1EDE2-C09C-4FA0-BFAA-9E1A17A97B35.thumb.png.87f0355ddc79a5bcd6d8fd6eb1052395.pngEB1582D7-40F1-4901-BB80-7E2A462DB735.thumb.png.7b9459b9b462c762314957878ae774ec.png7317B841-288B-47E2-A50E-E98D9D11F6B6.thumb.png.b3598b4f8f8d28f3b79192ea6814f0ce.png

A3965390-3023-4BFC-8846-947B74831EC8.gif98DB8F2B-E36E-4704-B797-623ABB642B5E.thumb.gif.00d6bacbd3960aba3906b09f353e41e3.gif

Edited by Daniel*
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Another corker from GFS 18z and right at the end another beaut to sign of with

image.thumb.png.b46c0c0487f8124efa9e4f75d00aa2d4.png

Wonder if the March CET low record could be under threat? Or even the April one at this rate! :yahoo:

:shok::cold:

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Lol just to underline how remarkable some of the ens members are P20 I estimate has a CET of 0.2C from the 17th to the 28th :rofl:.

That would leave us with a CET of 2.6C by the 28th. A few runs aren't far behind that. Its the minima that is notable on a lot of runs.

Anyhow lets see what tomorrow morning brings. Night.

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2 hours ago, The BEAST From The East said:

The GFS looks great but are the Beeb using another model to what we are looking at as the long range forcast said by tues/wed next week we are back mild after a cold weekend with the jet stream moving well north over us with westerlies in. " not really a beast he said"  

surprised he was so confident ,has he not looked at the gfs and other models showing a true Siberian blast and near record low thickness values for the time of year then?

obviously not bothered about his credebilty falling through the floor if he is wrong.then.

the beeb were poor in the run upto the last cold spell,when they said turning cold but DRY,remember.

Anyway not long to the next model runs this morning,and see how accurate Bett,s forecast was.

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GFS orientates and retrogresses the high better this morning (if you want one last blast of winter that is)

snow event for much of England over the weekend now looks likely but could be further North or South.

gfs-2-132.pnggfs-2-138.png

Actually that looks about right as it just misses South of me and I got a whole dusting out of the last cold spell. :wallbash:

gfsnh-0-144.png

A little further NW and a reload would be assured from the NE.

UKMO cold but keeps any snow interest brief and to the South

UN120-21.GIF?13-05UN144-21.GIF?13-05

GEM is more progressive with the cold, bringing it in Friday night/Saturday morning.

gemnh-0-102.png?00

ICON and APERGE cold and snowy

iconnh-0-123.png?13-00arpegenh-0-102.png

UKMO the odd one out this morning so far in that it has the high further South and thus a shorter lived cold feed though still cold.

Edited by Mucka
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Stunning ukmo run,still confident Mr betts:rofl:

3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

:rofl:surprised he was so confident ,has he not looked at the gfs and other models showing a true Siberian blast and near record low thickness values for the time of year then?

obviously not bothered about his credebilty falling through the floor if he is wrong.then.

the beeb were poor in the run upto the last cold spell,when they said turning cold but DRY,remember.

Anyway not long to the next model runs this morning,and see how accurate Bett,s forecast was.

 

Edited by SLEETY
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Its interesting watching this mornings runs as the models are behaving almost exactly like the last easterly at the same time range. What's different though is that the same solutions are being reached but by different models to the first easterly. The UKMO is a fine example, showing the easterly going down into Europe rather than hitting us. Last time it was actually the ECM that flirted with this possibility in the mid-range before finally settling on a solution.

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

GEM on the other hand like is going for everything a bit further north, something the GFS kept trying to do last time before again, settling on the correct solution:

GEMOPEU00_96_1.png

If anything, it really does show how the models struggle with easterlies. Also, whereas the last cold spell was pushed back a day or so and was shown to come to an abrupt end, this one seems to have been brought a day forward and looks potentially longer lived.

No wonder it's so hard to pin easterlies down!

 

Edited by reef
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Yes as reef says the cold comes in earlyer on this mornings run, -14c 850s into the UK by Sunday with Dp around -7c with plenty of convection off the North Sea..

7.thumb.png.932474fe4d57fa073ce418affa1c41c9.png9.thumb.png.7c3a06768acdac4d5ebffba8c3e9d4e6.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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nothing wrong with UKMO run this morning,the 120 chart would bring snow showers for many

Amazing runs from every model ,can't believe we have another Siberian High so soon again.Has this happened before?

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Depending on where you live, the last easterly didn't produce much for some of those in Western areas. If this easterly happens would there be a greater chance of those areas seeing some more shower activity than last time due to the extra strength of the sun? Feel like I'm clutching at straws... 

Edited by BlastFromThePastbuzz
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