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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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48 minutes ago, snowking said:

As @Nick F pointed out earlier, the most exciting thing about such a cold spell at this time of year should be solar convection, with just about anywhere in with a chance of seeing a fair few wintry showers. But when you see charts like the ECM tonight across England and Wales you get just that little bit more hopeful of something rather widespread.

Yes, 12z EC showing low pressure forming over the English Channel induced by a 500mb low moving west, with associated frontal system bringing some widespread snowfall across central and southern areas of England and Wales early Sunday. 12z GFS just going for standard snow showers off the North Sea and nothing as organised showing in the easterly flow. GFS not indicating inland convection that is likely at this time of year with stronger sun warming the surface under steep lapse rates. During the BFTE late Feb into beginning of the month, the models didn't pick up diurnal shower activity that developed most days, some of which become organised and heavy where convergence developed.

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GFSOPEU18_141_1.png

I don't think you could get a more perfect cold evolution for late March then this 18z. Snowfall on saturday from a weather front moving SW. Then even at this early stage the GFS is keen on convective snow showers for many in England as the cold air ushers westward.

To get one exceptional easterly in a single month is something but two!??? Must be Putin's fault.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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This is remarkable -12 -13 widespread across the country on the 18th of March. Snow showers widespread in the east especially so in the south-east. Could see some decent accumulation over night especially on Sunday 

Screenshot_20180312-221318.png

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The 18z gfs accelerates the cool pool over the UK by 144 hrs

gfsnh-0-144.png?18gfsnh-1-144.png?18

we have a north sea monster eating away the east coast:D

gfs-1-144.png?18

this is getting exiting now,who would of thought that another easterly would be on our doorstep two weeks after the first one

have we ever had two easterlies in such succession within two weeks!

get looking at the archives folks.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Pretty much as good as it gets on 18z GFS with regards to depth of cold for second half of March, 500mb cold pool with temps of -36C and 850mb temps of -14C across SE England and E Anglia certainly indicative of an unstable northeasterly flow by Sunday morning, should bring some decent cloud depth for more than a dusting in places.

GFSOPUK18_132_1.thumb.png.e6b362ab7c7c0cc3ed363d5d1a18e803.pngGFSOPUK18_132_2.thumb.png.25be54e5481cab2fdd2faa7e942e60a8.png

 

 

Edited by Nick F
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1 minute ago, The BEAST From The East said:

The GFS looks great but are the Beeb using another model to what we are looking at as the long range forcast said by tues/wed next week we are back mild after a cold weekend with the jet stream moving well north over us with westerlies in. " not really a beast he said"  

is what the EC suggests, 

ECM1-216.GIF?12-0

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According to Netweather's own Jetstream summary for the next 14 days, they too have the Jetstream moving North of the UK but all this does is to reinforce the cold east air with cold Arctic air. not sure where the mild air is going to come from with the uppers coming in from the North.

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2 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

The GFS looks great but are the Beeb using another model to what we are looking at as the long range forcast said by tues/wed next week we are back mild after a cold weekend with the jet stream moving well north over us with westerlies in. " not really a beast he said"  

Was Darren Bett doing the forecast ? :D

Remember this is the same forecasters that said it would be cold and dry on the run up to the last  cold spell.

Anyway longer term it might turn less cold but as long as tonights UKMO doesn’t see the light of day tomorrow then that would be good news .

 

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So ICON, GFS both absolutely following the ECM, which is to bring the deep cold in by the end of Saturday.

And once the deep cold is in, I doubt very much that "mild" will be back as quickly as the following Tuesday.

Make no mistake. Unless the UKMO is right ... this is definitely a proper beast, and possibly just 108 hours away.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Was Darren Bett doing the forecast ? :D

Remember this is the same forecasters that said it would be cold and dry on the run up to the last  cold spell.

Anyway longer term it might turn less cold but as long as tonights UKMO doesn’t see the light of day tomorrow then that would be good news .

 

It was indeed ?

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

So ICON, GFS both absolutely following the ECM, which is to bring the deep cold in by the end of Saturday.

And once the deep cold is in, I doubt very much that "mild" will be back as quickly as the following Tuesday.

Make no mistake. Unless the UKMO is right ... this is definitely a proper beast, and possibly just 108 hours away.

Exeter have the day 5 fax as per the ukgm 

we saw prior to the last cold spell scandi high formation, that whilst ukmo got to grips with the shortwave dropping south, they initially went with their model day 5 before the following day they adjusted from it at day 5 (whilst the model was still wrong) 

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7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Pretty much as good as it gets on 18z GFS with regards to depth of cold for second half of March, 500mb cold pool with temps of -36C and 850mb temps of -14C across SE England and E Anglia certainly indicative of an unstable northeasterly flow by Sunday morning, should bring some decent cloud depth for more than a dusting in places.

GFSOPUK18_132_1.thumb.png.e6b362ab7c7c0cc3ed363d5d1a18e803.pngGFSOPUK18_132_2.thumb.png.25be54e5481cab2fdd2faa7e942e60a8.png

 

 

Is that a bit of a ramp from you Nick?

you was on about a dry easterly 12 hours ago,i guess this has been an upgrade since then:)

there has certainly been upgrades since then Nick.

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11 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

It was indeed ?

OMG ! 

That explains it! He needs to be put behind the scenes and replaced with a true believer! :D

Is it just me or does he suck the life out of every forecast . It’s like weather done to induce sleep . You could have ice floes down the Thames and he’d make it sound as exciting as a game of croquet! 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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