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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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Shame the UKMO had to spoil things with an underwhelming output not just for the easterly but moving forward that could phase energy and stop any northerly aswell.

I really would hold off any early celebrations as the UKMO is just about  the worst outcome possible from the set up.

Five star ingredients and the UKMO manages to deliver a spam fritter !

 

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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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i make it around 30% gefs are decent re the cold pool strike. whilst other members would be adequate re surface wintry conitions in jan/feb, mid march onwards requires something a bit more extreme.  I'm really not sure what to expect from the 12z ec. anything akin to its previous run or the 12z icon would be great but you could easily see it spew out something like the ukmo which would empty this place faster than a fart in a lift ! 

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8 minutes ago, Purga said:

image.thumb.png.a03fa07e5eb88957b38ed5631707ebb1.pngimage.png

Nick - UKMO isn't too bad though is it really...

image.thumb.png.4defc778a6b8e079bf758b7f6aeaefb9.png

You can put lipstick on a spam fritter but it’s still a spam fritter! :D

The UKMO compared to the others so far is poor. The cold pool diluted before it even gets to the UK and worries over shortwave energy to the nw phasing.

Let’s hope the ECM stays on board and the UKMO drops its output in the morning .

Edited by nick sussex
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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We should have an idea about ECM direction of movement in about 4 minutes.

Looking good:D

better than the ukmo in comparison

ECH1-96.GIF?12-0UN96-21.GIF?12-18

Edited by Allseasons-si
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22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You can put lipstick on a spam fritter but it’s still a spam fritter! :D

The UKMO compared to the others so far is poor. The cold pool diluted before it even gets to the UK and worries over shortwave energy to the nw phasing.

Let’s hope the ECM stays on board and the UKMO drops its output in the morning .

OK - this is more like it Nick

image.thumb.png.5ba44de3b74479e486d5f6ac5789a8fa.pngimage.thumb.png.4c745eca110abf62d0f97c1a441e1f46.png

:D

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ECM at T120 looks well on board to me, I think March 2018 will be remembered for a long time.  It does seem a bit unbelievable that we could get a cold pool direct hit twice in two weeks but hey you can get lucky like that on roulette tooECM1-120.GIF?12-0

ECM0-120.GIF?12-0

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I reckon about 512 dam into lincs is the lowest at day 5. not too shabby for 17 march !

ends up with 516 dam cornwall to sw eire T138.  must be close to records if that were to verify ! 

Edited by bluearmy
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I think if the ECM eps mean backs the op tonight then I'm going to call it nailed without the UKMO 0z, at least wrt snowy and bitter from Birmingham South and Eastwards anyhow and maybe still dryER for NW but bitterly cold for the most if not all of England - Brave I know but day 4 on ECM to really be significantly too far North - really???

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think if the ECM eps mean backs the op tonight then I'm going to call it nailed without the UKMO 0z, at least wrt snowy and bitter from Birmingham South and Eastwards anyhow and maybe still dryER for NW but bitterly cold for the most if not all of England - Brave I know but day 4 on ECM to really be significantly too far North - really???

That’s brave! Until the UKMO is on board then I’d be very cautious given its past history .

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That’s brave! Until the UKMO is on board then I’d be very cautious given its past history .

Yes I know but with the caveat that it might be 100 or so miles further south and that it has eps support I think is the sensible play. looks to me now that to not have a very cold and snowy 24 hours for the SE corner now would be impossible.

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