Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEM - sudden jump - now on board, that's a hat trick of models so far, UKMO less bullish still though although still a glancing blow so perhaps some snow showers for the SE.

Yes,the gem going the ICON route with a trough dropping down from the NE,good upgrades across the board.

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEM - sudden jump - now on board, that's a hat trick of models so far, UKMO less bullish still though although still a glancing blow so perhaps some snow showers for the SE.

Yes, the UKMO not as good with the easterly although it looks like it could give a northerly a couple of days later.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, the UKMO not as good with the easterly although it looks like it could give a northerly a couple of days later.

The only thing that can stop a stonking cold spell now is that shortwave on the UKMO to the West, that could inhibit a N'ly / Ne'ly so if that doesn't verify, its a 100% cold spell because even if we miss the Jackpot by (E'ly)  by being too far south with coldest air we will still get a very good second prize with the Greenland height rise.

[Derecho]

Good grief, quite a set of 12z's so far the ARPEGE is as clean as a whistle and the GFS is pretty remarkable as well. GEM also superb.

UKMO is still fantastic just a tad more sluggish and more limited to southern areas (initially). 

What is intriguing this time is that we have no Azores low to fire up if the easterly is a clean one. Just a risk it may be more focused on southern areas if the momentum to push the cold westwards is in short supply as others have mentioned. If the ICON comes off we may well be breaking a few late March records, the ARPEGE looks primed too.

Edited March 12, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The only thing that can stop a stonking cold spell now is that shortwave on the UKMO to the West, that could inhibit a N'ly / Ne'ly so if that doesn't verify, its a 100% cold spell because even if we miss the Jackpot by (E'ly)  by being too far south with coldest air we will still get a very good second prize with the Greenland height rise.

Yes the ukmo getting close to phasing  the low heights to our nw. No one is ever happy without ukmo on board so we will no doubt have to wait till the morning now

 

two different timescales - the accelerated icon/gem (as per the 00z ec ) or the slower gfs/ukmo 

funny that last time the gfs was the accelerated model with the euros slower (and right). Be interesting to see if ec is as quick later 

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Return of the bitter windchill

[IPredictASnowStorm]

who said winter was over

[SLEETY]

Quite extraordinary synoptics  for this time of year .approaching 510 thickness of the Kent coast in mid March ,that’s ridiculous We would be amazed to see this in early January ,never mind now.

Must be close to all time record low thickness in mid March,I think a poster said 1853 in March was the record before.

Thats if it verifies of course,and UKMO not quite on board.

An amazing end to this winter,start of early spring I can ever remember,maybe record breaking.Parts of Eastern Europe must be breaking records next week,or close to it.

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes the ukmo getting close to phasing  the low heights to our nw. No one is ever happy without ukmo on board so we will no doubt have to wait till the morning now

 

two different timescales - the accelerated icon/gem (as per the 00z ec ) or the slower gfs/ukmo 

funny that last time the gfs was the accelerated model with the euros slower (and right). Be interesting to see if ec is as quick later 

Yes - another funny thing though is when a few rogue runs (I'm sure the ECM did a few) where the E'ly was cut very short last time but with a Guaranteed Greenland high as second prize but if it had verified with the regulation -ve NAO had as opposed to the massive overshoot way past  Ireland which did verify and resulted in a west based -NAO, we possibly might still have been in that cold spell now!!!

Edited March 12, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

who said winter was over

Did anyone say that?

anywhooos!,who broke the gem.

edit:it's running now

Edited March 12, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

Are we looking at a March 2013 again->20th the date?

[Summer Sun]

It doesn't look like the real cold 850's will hang around overly long this time around

Edited March 12, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Allseasons-Si]

I wouldn't worry about a chart at 192 hrs SS,the short term looks good to me and that's what matters

[SMU]

Nothing trumps the NASA 00z

[Summer Sun]

Based on GFS 12z the coldest days UK wide are Sunday and Monday with the east getting colder on Saturday

Less cold after

 

Edited March 12, 2018 by Summer Sun

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Based on GFS 12z the coldest days UK wide are Sunday and Monday with the east getting colder on Saturday

Less cold after

 

Even on those less cold charts, still a full 5-7c below average - don't forget this is 20th March not 1st, you should be looking at temps possibly into the teens in the SE at this time of year.

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Based on GFS 12z the coldest days UK wide are Sunday and Monday with the east getting colder on Saturday

Less cold after

 

Pretty cold those last two charts for Mid March.  2-3 below average at least.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Far FI but this fits the general longer term prognosis of mid Atlantic ridging and Scandi troughing

The CFS chart I posted this morning also promoted a similar reckoning for April.

Edited March 12, 2018 by CreweCold

[Man With Beard]

Some people saying the UKMO is ok for cold, but I'm reading it as a miss to the south?

[Daniel*]

This thread would be blowing up a month or two or three earlier. At least the pace is slower more time to think, and more quality! I don’t think in anyone’s lifetime has there been synoptics like this delivering deep cold at this time of year. I hear 1853 coming up? Guess that was cold.  Snow is highly likely in places. Fun times. Not everyone’s cup of tea but as a lover of extremes this is right up my alley uncharted territory...

[Mike Poole]

I think talk in recent days of what if this upcoming spell, and the one a week or so ago, occurred in January is misplaced.  My view is not what if this had happened in January, rather this is utterly amazing in March.  And that brings into play things that wouldn't be there in midwinter, most notably the stronger sun initiating convection inland.  Very interesting weather In my opinion.  GEFS 12z suggests snow is possible for the whole of the UK, here's the probability chart for T168:

We await the ECM with interest!

Edited March 12, 2018 by Mike Poole

[The Eagle]

Quite a few GFS ensemble members support the UKMO take on things. Not a done deal yet.

[Summer Sun]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

This thread would be blowing up a month or two or three earlier. At least the pace is slower more time to think, and more quality! I don’t think in anyone’s lifetime has there been synoptics like this delivering deep cold at this time of year. I hear 1853 coming up? Guess that was cold.  Snow is highly likely in places. Fun times. Not everyone’s cup of tea but as a lover of extremes this is right up my alley uncharted territory...

2

2013?

[Derecho]

Swingometer updated and many members bring in our desired cold pool from the east now. Though the nature of the hit is to be resolved with some runs focusing on it hitting more southern areas.

Another emerging theme is a very potent northerly to see out March cropping up in a few ensemble members.

Edited March 12, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

2013?

While that was extraordinary but actually pretty forgettable for me, I don’t think upper temps were outrageous? 

 

Edited March 12, 2018 by Daniel*