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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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20 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Looks like winter hasn't finished with us yet. Certainly a significant trend today towards a return of the beast !  

Let's hope so - March in my opinion is an extension of winter :good: a bit like September is an extension of summer. 

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1 minute ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Let's hope so - March in my opinion is an extension of winter :good: a bit like September is an extension of summer. 

yes i'm still in winter mode in march so let the snow return

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Well there have been worse charts to wake up to. The cold pool to the east exceptional for the time of year. Snow showers from the sea and longer spells of snow pushing from the south. The easterly begins at 96 hrs staggering really

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GEFS 0z has more members than the 18z going for sub -10 uppers at 850hpa in fife scotland so a step forward on there and ECM looking better 

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Hopefully we can keep seeing upgrades and the block getting into Greenland and not collapsing as there is plenty cold uppers to tap into over russia by this point 

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UKMO has -12 850's clipping the SE at t144 -8's get to about the Midlands with the far west around 0 to -4

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.8bf9ff6cd877b77d6c72fd606deae889.GIF

The London mean has had a significant drop overnight with -8 on the 18th which looks to be the peak for the colder air. Crucially for coldies, the op is on the warm side around the peak of the cold

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.45266eed5f37464a7cecf5b2a0d15946.png

 

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just concentrating on the cold pool, the eps clusters show the op to be a bit far to the north with the lowest z500 heights clustered around 520 dam around se England day 6. Going on the eps , somewhere across lowland england/Wales/Ireland will get plastered over the the weekend ! 

Hopefully London!  We deserve a bit of luck in the capital!!

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3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

By day 6 the GFS has a finger of very cold upper air directed at the UK

gfs-1-144.png?0

The beastlet definitely looks to be nosing in on Scotland on this morning's GFS ?

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