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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

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Having just read the latest update, similar to yesterday, nothing like the milder Ecm 00z op / Gfs 6z op but more like the colder Gfs 00z op and Ecm 00z ensemble mean..we could be looking at a generally colder spell with frosts and a risk of snow / wintry showers, especially further n / ne beyond the week ahead.:):cold:

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37 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Clear to see ECM has had a big wobble this morning. Day and night. Mean brings in the easterly.

ED9F922F-8779-43EA-B4F9-16A29FE944C5.thumb.gif.9dbf9d8e767b041c6653b6c6cc3d4bed.gif524E7970-7934-413D-9621-76681267420C.thumb.gif.5ad957ba8d4e47da2c6d804bdc039a87.gif

00z EC det. certainly the mild end of the spread from the 19th for T2m London, 00z GFS colder than the average but not without support. 

9FF85A29-3337-4091-AE47-82FC5B3CAB49.thumb.gif.2e217a6615c1ec65541e2cda4c1b34c5.gif

Certainly grounds to suggest it will turn colder after next weekend, with increasing risk of wintry precipitation, which ties in with the MO 6-30 day update.

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Swingometer update time again and the period from 17th - 22nd March is my focus. Three broad potential scenarios:

1) Mild/average temperatures persist. Either the cold pool to our east doesn't reach us and there is no blocking in the north Atlantic later to bring in cold air from the North.
2) Cold easterly - Our fastest route to cold and would actually involve some decently cold uppers for the time of year. T144 mark is the time to look out for at the moment.
3) Cold from blocked Atlantic - The cold easterly doesn't come off but blocking to our NW leads to a late wintry spell from the north.

Here are the polling results from the last 24 hours using the GFS ensembles:

image.thumb.png.eecf3d60d20eba816a0719c1f9706794.png

The 06z ensembles saw a backing off from a cold easterly, a shame and many members have a mild/average temperature rise regime with a dominance of cyclonic types.

Bear in mind this time yesterday for the 12z the easterly was hardly touted at all by the GEFS. The signal really picked up for the 18z and 00z runs with the operationals showing some pretty chilly late March weather.

A step back on the latest set though. All is not lost for coldies but we would ideally want a swing back on the 12z's after the disappointing latest runs.

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Just looked through the GEFS 6z and there is considerable support for a cold / blocked pattern to become re-established, especially during the last 7-10 days of march with frosts becoming widespread and snow / ice in places too.:):cold:

Edited by Frosty.

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I can’t see how we’re going to avoid going colder, goodbye to double figures for a while I feel. Colder further north and east, less cold more south and west you are but still below average. I have an odd feeling this spring may be going the way of 2013 not sure I’m thrilled at that prospect. A slow burner to real spring..

 

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Swingometer update time again and the period from 17th - 22nd March is my focus. Three broad potential scenarios:

1) Mild/average temperatures persist. Either the cold pool to our east doesn't reach us and there is no blocking in the north Atlantic later to bring in cold air from the North.
2) Cold easterly - Our fastest route to cold and would actually involve some decently cold uppers for the time of year. T144 mark is the time to look out for at the moment.
3) Cold from blocked Atlantic - The cold easterly doesn't come off but blocking to our NW leads to a late wintry spell from the north.

Here are the polling results from the last 24 hours using the GFS ensembles:

image.thumb.png.eecf3d60d20eba816a0719c1f9706794.png

The 06z ensembles saw a backing off from a cold easterly, a shame and many members have a mild/average temperature rise regime with a dominance of cyclonic types.

Bear in mind this time yesterday for the 12z the easterly was hardly touted at all by the GEFS. The signal really picked up for the 18z and 00z runs with the operationals showing some pretty chilly late March weather.

A step back on the latest set though. All is not lost for coldies but we would ideally want a swing back on the 12z's after the disappointing latest runs.

Oh dear...

The rather epic cold spell just gone there were times when ensembles had cold feet, nearer on some well most went cold some sizeable number went mild, after seemingly all we’re interested in cold easterly and then they went back to it. Best to follow the operational I’d say. From what I’ve seen today no real change evident, ECM op was quite frankly off on one let’s see what 12z does. BBC Weather are being quite bullish which is unusual of them, with a cold easterly flow setting in next weekend. 

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Ikon keen on bringing back the cold next weekend! 

DBC34D78-5B56-4C2C-8054-F7B152502C05.png

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38 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Oh dear...

The rather epic cold spell just gone there were times when ensembles had cold feet, nearer on some well most went cold some sizeable number went mild, after seemingly all we’re interested in cold easterly and then they went back to it. Best to follow the operational I’d say. From what I’ve seen today no real change evident, ECM op was quite frankly off on one let’s see what 12z does. BBC Weather are being quite bullish which is unusual of them, with a cold easterly flow setting in next weekend. 

There certainly is points where the ensembles get cold feet and they will again should an easterly come off.

For what its worth I think the chase is far from over as for a lot of runs its just the allignment of the Scandi high that is an issue rather then a large scale pattern change. In this instance I would agree the operational is potentially more useful given its such a small issue that has a big impact on our prospects for an easterly further down the line. However I would expect more ensemble members to pick up on the prospects of an easterly at this point should there be real potential for it to come into fruition.... as the key timeframe is just ~144 hours away.

I think the potential for an easterly is definitely there given late winter cold in February tends to be associated with a slow start to spring and more  cold easterly types. Perhaps the ensembles are still being sluggish picking up on the easterly, the latest ICON looks pretty interesting for example.

Additionally last weeks swingometer was very bullish on a deep storm to hit us this weekend and that fizzled out into a rather slack pattern around the middle of next week, plenty of time for swings still.

image.png.ea21c2ec5ded3a1079c131a4a29e580e.png

Here is what last weekends ensembles were forecasting, we should be under a deep storm at the moment, yet it quickly changed to being a weakening system moving over France, albeit we still got caught up in a milder airstream.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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The first hurdle really is being able to get the jet to split and fully loop around the high developing to our north east, there is a lot of uncertainty over this with some runs allowing cold air to march west whilst others have simply developed the ridge to our east and kept it connected to the ridge over eastern Europe.

The operations this afternoon are however suggesting that the cold air should be able to push west fully.

GFS/UKMO day 6

gfs-0-144.png?12   UW144-21.GIF?11-17

UKMO looks the quickest but I suspect the GFS would get there with the pulse of cold air.

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GFS 12z is better than the 6z . We have a cut of high 👍🏻. On the 6z we didn't.

IMG_1900.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Cold air very close at T162 😁

IMG_1901.PNG

Spot the difference with the 06z :rofl:

GFSOPEU06_174_1.pngGFSOPEU12_168_1.png

ICON also looks very cold for Sunday....

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It's coming slowly but surely. The high just needs to get a bit higher and bang we're in business.

IMG_1902.PNG

IMG_1903.PNG

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Coldies will be delighted with the ukmo 12z but still with much lower confidence than prior to the last spell

0CD7B8D0-3523-492E-8843-4175617851A0.thumb.jpeg.003dd7e8a5c2b34e8951d724a9cdb098.jpeg

where is it headed ???

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Yes indeed, and here we go again, the Beast 2, son of Beasterly 1 is back on the scene after wanting to take a detour 6hrs ago. -8c uppers into EA and the SE by next Sunday, so thats D7.:D

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-1-174.png

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Essentially we are seeing big swings in outputs as this must be a very finely balanced situation 

As the Met Office extended does sound quite wintery ( and they were on the money previously ) perhaps the colder operationals deserve more emphasis 

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Cold air in on Sunday /Monday . It was Sunday / Monday last time the beast first visited 😁

IMG_1904.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD

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Looking cold but dry, need the HP further north of course. Still lots of time for that to change for the better.:rolleyes:

gfs-2-180.png

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2 minutes ago, kev238 said:

Essentially we are seeing big swings in outputs as this must be a very finely balanced situation 

As the Met Office extended does sound quite wintery ( and they were on the money previously ) perhaps the colder operationals deserve more emphasis 

We could still be pretty cold without the deeply cold uppers coldies are craving  - the developing low way to our north is the feature dictating the pressure that the surface scandi ridge comes under. 

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All PM models have retracted on the sinker evolution- I highlighted yesterday that I expect the blocking to be further west & as time ticks so the WAA out of the continent @96 is becoming more acute NW-

GFS is the slowest but has -12c heading towards the SE @180, The IKON has the same at about 168 & the UKMO would probably be slightly earlier

All in all an afternoon of upgrades... Rem March 13 the model accuracy around this solution was poor being that it was pretty unique....

Edited by Steve Murr

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Like I said above the high needs to be further north the really cold air is in France . @nick sussex stop hogging the cold air 😁

IMG_1905.PNG

IMG_1906.PNG

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-12c uppers into EA by Monday afternoon.

gfs-1-198.png

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This is getting silly! Round two like the buses. :D 

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Both UK and GFS at 144 are certainly better with that Scandi high but getting colder uppers here depends on that high becoming a major player and holding it's ground to get that cold right across to us.

We can see some of the Siberian vortex is draining south and west already into parts of E.Europe by this stage.

UN144-21.GIF?11-17gfsnh-0-144.png?12

We can envisage what is possible if the block develops further nw ushering that Siberian cold more directly sw towards the UK.This would be a better setup for a late snowfall rather than relying perhaps on a drier easterly off the continent suggested by the later frames of the GFS.

Edited by phil nw.

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