Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in here! 
Other options:
Model moans, ramps and banter
Regional discussions

For more focused short-range model discussion:
Short-range Model Discussion

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Still Going @300

E066BEF0-BF0F-40C6-AC91-BB0E0CBFD1BB.thumb.png.d7c3cbaa3ccade210fe890fa78a5e4bb.png

 

And it keeps going until day 16 . Nice ?? 

IMG_1897.PNG

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

And it keeps going until day 16 . Nice ?? 

IMG_1897.PNG

I would imagine that this would be a very cold chart for late March with lots of instability and heavy snow showers. Chance of a white easter there alright.:shok:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Eastnorthwest said:

GF'S 00Z run is hinting of heights building over Scandinavia but at this stage as you would expect not as strong feed of cold air from the east by 192 hours but the signs of a pattern change are there

That low moving into France only has to intensify on future runs and a not so angry beast might make it to our shores, 

Still a long way off but the foundations for another cold spell have been concreted, now we need them to set ,then wait for the brickie s to arrive and start laying some blocks in the coming days :hi:

First row of blocks have been laid on tonights main model runs with the beast coming back towards us at T 192 on pub run

At this run the coldest hits the north with snow for most bar south of M 4 corridor to river Thames there after northeasterly flow becomes established into fantasy island, 

Anyone for a white Easter at this stage :cold::hi:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

20 March I think in the late seventies we had a blizzard which dropped about 25mm precip but only translated to about 18 cms 

it’s not impossible by any means 

March 19th 1987 saw a very heavy snow shower in Cheltenham - it was Gold Cup Day. There was an immediate covering and very large flakes. It quickly melted leaving no settled snow in the town. (from my own diary).

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

After the beast, what next?........another beast looks like the answer:shok: thread name may need updating soon:shok:

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Eastnorthwest said:

First row of blocks have been laid on tonights main model runs with the beast coming back towards us at T 192 on pub run

At this run the coldest hits the north with snow for most bar south of M 4 corridor to river Thames there after northeasterly flow becomes established into fantasy island, 

Anyone for a white Easter at this stage :cold::hi:

Even better it's just off the east coast by T 165 which hopefully with the time frame won't change much  on next few GFS runs

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
On 08/03/2018 at 19:56, Frosty. said:

perhaps those who prefer mild shouldn't get too comfy..there might be a cold shock later in the month!!:D:cold-emoji:

Hope the Gfs 18z is right as it would mean I'm right!!:cold::D

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Ouch, 15.3C highest temperature today, forward a week and a day and the beast from the east returns to bring us back down into low single digits on 18z GFS.

GFSOPUK18_189_5.thumb.png.bbb62a89a1b1be8de311602f8b26542f.png

Support from the EPS mean to turn colder from the east by day 9, though blocking more orientated over Iceland and Greenland than Scandi

eps_t850a_eur_37.thumb.png.0a6e5d830b74069aaf5d3d138471b541.pngeps_z500a_eur_37.thumb.png.5d67150a8853541284b0d832f7b63b9b.png

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018031012_168.thumb.png.47a5cdd833ed884c3945af6cc83d7880.png

Interesting to see where ridging ends up and orientates, the models seem pretty consistent on deep cold air spreading S into NE and E Europe next week, the question is how far west will it advect and will it be cold enough for lowland snow if it comes?

 

 

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Still plenty of mild weather to be enjoyed in the meantime, really have no time for cold after mid March. personally I wouldn't want to see another spell like we had the other week due to negative effects on the economy and farming at this time of year. 

Thankfully there is nothing showing in the reliable time frame- hopefully will be gone tomorrow. Enjoying the feeling of my feet being warm for the first time in ages and the birds chirping once again when heading out!

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
6 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Still plenty of mild weather to be enjoyed in the meantime, really have no time for cold after mid March. personally I wouldn't want to see another spell like we had the other week due to negative effects on the economy and farming at this time of year. 

Thankfully there is nothing showing in the reliable time frame- hopefully will be gone tomorrow. Enjoying the feeling of my feet being warm for the first time in ages and the birds chirping once again when heading out!

The only feeling I had earlier was the feeling of being soaking wet.. pretty miserable weather, however mild.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
6 minutes ago, cheese said:

The only feeling I had earlier was the feeling of being soaking wet.. pretty miserable weather, however mild.

We had a lovely dry period in south Manchester from around 10 am to 2 pm when the sun came out, the temperature reached 14C before the rain returned and with the light winds it felt great.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

We had a lovely dry period in south Manchester from around 10 am to 2 pm when the sun came out, the temperature reached 14C before the rain returned and with the light winds it felt great.

I'm hoping for some dry, sunny, mild weather - would be nice to get out in the garden. No sign of that happening soon though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
Just now, cheese said:

I'm hoping for some dry, sunny, mild weather - would be nice to get out in the garden. No sign of that happening soon though.

No, unfortunately very few signs of pressure building, we may just have to hope for the odd day here and there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

No downgrades on the GFS 00z, the beast arrives on schedule this time next Sunday with light snow moving in from the east.:)

gfs-0-180.png

gfs-1-180.png

gfs-2-186.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Eastnorthwest said:

Even better it's just off the east coast by T 165 which hopefully with the time frame won't change much  on next few GFS runs

00Z run more or less same as previous run showing same easterly being replaced by NE Easterly by T 240

Very encouraging for coldies ,next 2 days crucial to more or less nail it

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
3 hours ago, snowray said:

No downgrades on the GFS 00z, the beast arrives on schedule this time next Sunday with light snow moving in from the east.:)

gfs-0-180.png

gfs-1-180.png

gfs-2-186.png

Ties in with METO text update yesterday so can't dismiss it. ECM and GEM say no at least for now though. ICON gets in easterly but coldest uppers stay too far east....Be interesting to see how this plays out...All aboard the Beasterly rollercoaster Round 2.....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z is dreadful if, like me you want another cold spell..the Gfs 00z on the other hand is much better..dare I say, more runs needed!:D

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland

Some support in GEFS ensembles for the op...6 or 7 bring in an easterly like this one P5 - others go cold eventually via northerly or northeasterly....very few milder options in there so spring on hold for a while yet ...

Screenshot_20180311-080219.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

ECM this morning does its usual trick having teased us with some potentially cold runs by producing something completely meh. It always seems to do this at some point when a cold spell is approaching. Jumps between it cold and mild clusters before settling back into the general run towards a colder outlook.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...