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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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ECM ensembles have some support for the 12z op.  Here 's the mean at T168:

EDM1-168.GIF?10-0

0z mean for comparison (recognising the 12 hour difference):

EDM1-168.GIF?00

Is something cold cooking for the UK in the deep fat fryer of global atmospheric physics (did I really just write that?!)??

beer o'clock early tonight!

Edited by Mike Poole
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23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, although anything falling from that would be rain I would have thought, based on the 144.

It depends, much colder air from northern europe could get drawn westwards towards / across the uk and turn the rain to sleet or snow, at least further north and especially on hills..something to watch..hopefully!:)

Edited by Frosty.
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A mean easterly on the ECM ensembles

EDM1-168.GIF?10-0  EDM1-192.GIF?10-0

which is usually the best indicator of an incoming easterly

On balance though (sorry to be a party pooper), to me I think it's still 60/40 we won't see significant cold from this - because it's so late in the year - needs a push of minus 10C uppers first to get the cold to "set-in" IMO

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1 hour ago, chris55 said:

Something's brewing...

With the record breaking SSW we have recently seen and subsequent shifting of the Strat profile and lack of westerly winds up high, plus further down welling of patterns, it doesn't surprise me that the models are toying with the idea of another shot of proper cold air as we head through March.

The probability of another true beast is quite low simply going on historic probabilities, however some more widespread snowfall is certainly a possibility ❄️️

Will be viewing the coming days runs with renewed wintry interest :) 

Major beast from the east in March *and* April in 1965. Or was it '66... 

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7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

A mean easterly on the ECM ensembles

EDM1-168.GIF?10-0  EDM1-192.GIF?10-0

which is usually the best indicator of an incoming easterly

On balance though (sorry to be a party pooper), to me I think it's still 60/40 we won't see significant cold from this - because it's so late in the year - needs a push of minus 10C uppers first to get the cold to "set-in" IMO

Agree - I think the evolution of the 12z op with a system dropping south out of the Arctic with a little chunk of vortex  around a ridge is probably our best bet. Although the 00z with its slack cold pattern had snow cover late on across a swathe of England 

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34 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

A mean easterly on the ECM ensembles

EDM1-168.GIF?10-0  EDM1-192.GIF?10-0

which is usually the best indicator of an incoming easterly

On balance though (sorry to be a party pooper), to me I think it's still 60/40 we won't see significant cold from this - because it's so late in the year - needs a push of minus 10C uppers first to get the cold to "set-in" IMO

It may be late but there’s still significant cold air to be had unusually so. So I partly disagree with you there. It looks parts of Europe are going to go back in freezer, certainly winter mode rather than spring mode.

9FCD92CC-B969-47D1-9AF1-AB36B4B3AFD8.thumb.gif.d1578c65a49bd9c943daa1e588397cec.gif6FC8F02C-7EDA-416D-B4E2-C4D16B8FA74A.thumb.gif.1a897bbac0d083599f12ebf159a16017.gif

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I think tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is encouraging for coldies longer term..put it this way, it's an upgrade compared to 24 hours ago!..something wintry beyond mid month is actually not unrealistic going by this and the latest update from exeter!:cold::)

ECMAVGEU12_168_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

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Icon 18z has pattern a few hundred miles further West than 12z - things starting to hot up nicely.

EDIT : beaten to it by you know who!!!

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 hour ago, Come rain snow or shine said:

Major beast from the east in March *and* April in 1965. Or was it '66... 

15 April 1966 - easterly depositing 6 inches of snow in daylight hours on the North Downs in Kent - an ice day too.  So 20 March is not too late at all.

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3 minutes ago, Whether Idle said:

15 April 1966 - easterly depositing 6 inches of snow in daylight hours on the North Downs in Kent - an ice day too.  So 20 March is not too late at all.

20 March I think in the late seventies we had a blizzard which dropped about 25mm precip but only translated to about 18 cms 

it’s not impossible by any means 

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9 minutes ago, Whether Idle said:

15 April 1966 - easterly depositing 6 inches of snow in daylight hours on the North Downs in Kent - an ice day too.  So 20 March is not too late at all.

HI GANG ,And late April about the 25th april ,1908 large areas of central and southern england had record breaking snow ,possibly 40cms plus in Southhampton ,Bristol and Oxford 850S ONLY ABOUT MINUS 5C ,SOrry about typing but getting tired ,So it looks like the Chase is on again ,lets see what the morning runs bring ,fingers crossed cheers all :cold::yahoo:

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

18z much closer with the beast @168...

Yes, if it wasn't for that trough to the SW of Iceland then I would be saying 'Who said one just as brutal cant happen in late March as well as early?'

GFSOPEU18_168_1.png

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, if it wasn't for that trough to the SW of Iceland then I would be saying 'Who said one just as brutal cant happen in late March as well as early?'

GFSOPEU18_168_1.png

Yep-

Also remember though theres a fair scooe for westwrly correction here as well being that the GFS still seems a fair way to east on the development of the high...

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15 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Anyone fancy a proper beast again ?

IMG_1896.PNG

We are talking D7 there Ice, could be big day model watching tomorrow as the effects of this last SSW start to get modelled with more precision.  

Is the 18z going to be the trend setter again then I wonder?

Edited by snowray
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While the south strikes unlucky on pub run and misses out on the beast, we have a snowy Channel Low in Southern England the air does not need to be overly cold and for most of us, there’d be snow. :yahoo:

Snow not a foregone thing south of the M4 corridor I suspect..

3E6ABB69-67E2-4CD0-BDA7-8E93FB1390DE.thumb.gif.ce588f5a30c87c754554f134b8e7ab80.gifAEF2C43D-8DE7-4A95-9013-0341F25A8EB6.thumb.gif.9fd475d5b231af43e7affd2ab0b1b7a2.gif

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26 minutes ago, snowray said:

We are talking D7 there Ice, could be big day model watching tomorrow as the effects of this last SSW start to get modelled with more precision.  

Is the 18z going to be the trend setter again then I wonder?

Yep tomorrow could be called easterly sunday ?. It does feel Iike we're headed that way tho . Let's hope it's a potent one with lots of snow again . :cold::cold-emoji:

Edited by ICE COLD
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