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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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So why will it not return at a later date?

The past winter has shown, I would have thought, that preconceived ideas about what should happen when are not really very scientific.

Just my view.

It sure will be great to have some sun and warm temperatures after the past 6 days gorrow show, in this part of the world anyway.

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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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27 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Its good the Azores has arrived here earlier and people want it to set up a prolonged summer pattern and strengthen for the rest of Spring but if that's going to be the case then things will only start to deteriorate by time we get to mid-June. Good patterns don't normally last long. Hence why I said it should go home and come back in two months as it would be better timed. If people want a good summer then ideally the Azores should arrive to set up its pattern in June.        

I think the weather patterns are not reliable any time of the year. So say you want this set up in June is pointless.. I personally think  those who like summer charts will happy to get nice weather  in Spring Summer or Autumn..The  more pleasant weather we get the better. If it starts in April all the better.

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46 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Its good the Azores has arrived here earlier and people want it to set up a prolonged summer pattern and strengthen for the rest of Spring but if that's going to be the case then things will only start to deteriorate by time we get to mid-June. Good patterns don't normally last long. Hence why I said it should go home and come back in two months as it would be better timed. If people want a good summer then ideally the Azores should arrive to set up its pattern in June.        

Indeed. Just like the Scandi/Iceland highs that have been a constant since January! Of course these can set up for a couple of months at a time, and then re-set again. If anything the most recent season has told us, is that anything is possible in weather!

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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

 

It sure will be great to have some sun and warm temperatures after the past 6 days gorrow show, in this part of the world anyway.

Yes John its been a real gorrow show this week..I mean horror show:crazy:..but looking at the GEFS 12z mean, next week will feel like we've skipped spring and sprung straight into summer..hopefully will set the tone for the coming months! :)

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1 hour ago, 38.5*C said:

Its good the Azores has arrived here earlier and people want it to set up a prolonged summer pattern and strengthen for the rest of Spring but if that's going to be the case then things will only start to deteriorate by time we get to mid-June. Good patterns don't normally last long. Hence why I said it should go home and come back in two months as it would be better timed. If people want a good summer then ideally the Azores should arrive to set up its pattern in June.        

I do actually agree with this. 

I love the warmth and sun more than anybody, and am revelling at this these charts. But I do get the feeling it’s a tad early. As mentioned, I would much rather have a setup like this in June/July so as to get some real warmth and stability that will last through the summer. 

As stated, good Azores setups don’t last forever and typically the earlier they arrive, the sooner they disappear. Not what you want come real summer time. 

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28 minutes ago, March said:

I'm not sure that's how the weather works guys... There's no Azores high quota. 

No but there is such a thing as seasonal wavelengths (mean jet position/ attenuation and such) which alter as the seasons progress. It stands to reason that the base pattern we find ourselves in now, will not be the same come June.

Given the ascent into a neutral ENSO scenario (still moving towards that outcome), it figures we'll see a variation in the background state between now and summer. Once there, we may languish for some time in whatever that outcome may be.

My view?

I happen to believe that we are following a certain trajectory this year; all things considered perhaps more 2007 than 1976...but we'll see.

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April 2003 guys.. a very warm month and the summer that followed goes without saying. Not sure why this same rubbish crops up every year.

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2 hours ago, cheese said:

April 2003 guys.. a very warm month and the summer that followed goes without saying. Not sure why this same rubbish crops up every year.

2003 wasn't a low solar year. 2007 is really quite similar to now in that respect. 

 

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4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

2003 wasn't a low solar year. 2007 is really quite similar to now in that respect. 

 

And 1995? And 1976?  Wasn't that quite similar to now in the solar cycle? 

 

Back to the models, The GFS 0z going back unsettled again in the last week of April after the drier blip.            

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31 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

And 1995? And 1976?  Wasn't that quite similar to now in the solar cycle? 

 

Back to the models, The GFS 0z going back unsettled again in the last week of April after the drier blip.            

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The Ecm 00z looks good though with high pressure building back in and warming up again too.. and most of next week is summery!???:) 

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What will be interesting to see is how prolonged any settled weather is. April 2003 was very episodic and turned wet at the end whereas 2007 settled throughout. Both Mays were wet then the June's behaved differently. I'd be more concerned seeing long anticyclonic spells now

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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is a cracker, increasing warmth, sunshine and lighter winds as high pressure takes control after the start of next week and then rebuilds in across the uk through next weekend and early into the following week.. soon time to dig out the shorts and fire ?? up the BBQ!????:)

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