Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here! 
Other options:
Model moans, ramps and banter
Regional discussions

For more focused short-range model discussion:
Short-range Model Discussion

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Cracking UKMO 12z for the eastern side initially then more widely from midweek

UKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.d078289af28ea0e143ce4b0110d41568.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.fe8ae5a86318e803da4f3cbbde8734ae.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.aa246c41818a93b673c7c47a983edefa.png

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the warm up mid next week is now nailed on.  The question becomes how warm, how long?  

How warm, GFS and GEM at T174, get the +12 uppers into the SE.

gfs-1-174.png?12

gem-1-174.png?12

GEM in particular illustrates the plume of warm air. 

Giving mid twenties widely on Thursday 

168-580UK.GIF?12-12

How long seems more uncertain at the moment.  GEM slides the high back towards the Azores at T240, bringing temperature back towards average, interesting to see see GFS at same time.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Superb GFS for next week dew points and air temps will fly up

144-101UK.thumb.GIF.8fec7c967980247d5f13dcb51ae9a16c.GIF168-101UK.thumb.GIF.bbf365bea5d2ec533b425d446347cbf6.GIF

144-778UK.thumb.GIF.ce6408d3315cf9d1e9cb72198ab5724d.GIF168-778UK.thumb.GIF.6bd54e9879a98c161362ddc0f3ca2bb0.GIF

Doesn't get much better than this for the time of year

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Summer Sun said:

Superb GFS for next week dew points and air temps will fly up

144-101UK.thumb.GIF.8fec7c967980247d5f13dcb51ae9a16c.GIF168-101UK.thumb.GIF.bbf365bea5d2ec533b425d446347cbf6.GIF

144-778UK.thumb.GIF.ce6408d3315cf9d1e9cb72198ab5724d.GIF168-778UK.thumb.GIF.6bd54e9879a98c161362ddc0f3ca2bb0.GIF

Doesn't get much better than this for the time of year

About time too, this week been vile here in the east, not made double figures, and forecasts were rubbish saying this was only for the coast

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS T240, low pushing in from west on this run, so possible thundery breakdown (which is not to be sneezed at!) but the warm air not missing to the east by much so wouldn't take a lot of an adjustment to maintain the heatwave.

gfs-0-240.png?12

gfs-1-240.png?12

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Post warm spell, there seems to be a decentish signal for a Scandi trough to run the show

gensnh-21-5-300.png

The nuances we will likely see in the modelling will dictate to what extent temperatures across the UK are affected, the control goes quite cold on the 12z suite

gensnh-0-0-300.png

Some stonkers in this suite TBH (synoptically speaking)

gensnh-14-1-300.png

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cracking GEFS 12z mean next week, especially for england and wales...in summary it's looking summery!🌞🌞🌞🌞:D🌴🌴🍦🍦

21_144_500mb.png

21_168_500mb.png

21_168_2mtmpmax.png

21_192_500mb.png

21_192_850tmp.png

21_216_500mb.png

169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are well overdue a spell of warmth and boy do we get a treat next week we might even get some thunderstorms breaking out by Friday

ECMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.e674d7be804d347bb13837312b12415a.pngECMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.63f602af86c0cc50799b6f3f634dfb74.pngECMOPEU12_168_1.thumb.png.bae4cdcd05416717207b21d7ad1498c4.pngECMOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.aad327ce8b31d485e9df6ffd42f6ca57.png

120_thickuk.thumb.png.a1b05e2b028aff4241cd2b7c8cf6d142.png144_thickuk.thumb.png.9f4cb80bb1e9a304cf95be4fcbcfc79b.png168_thickuk.thumb.png.f190f5c838772b895e76b853c9238338.png192_thickuk.thumb.png.8ff057759b18d922b2457282f20cdd96.png

As another dull day draws to a close we have at least have something to look forward to next week

:)

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z ECM ends a bit more unsettled however temps still hold up around or a bit above average for most and with hints of pressure building across Europe it may not take long for settled conditions to return

ECMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.2a37060957f716ebec54d0a9383ce416.pngECMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.c917d2fb0a5510aae484d08a17982eb1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM at T240:

ECM0-240.GIF?12-0

ECM1-240.GIF?12-0

Similar to GFS at same time although the low pushing in a possible thundery breakdown is less defined on ECM, GFS for comparison:

gfs-0-240.png?12

More runs needed for what's going to happen 10 days from now, as always.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bit of a disappointing ECM 12Z compared to what we've had previously. Let's hope it's being a bit hasty in bringing that low in from the west- on this run it begins to exert its influence as early as Friday. No doubt eastern areas would still get a mostly fine and very warm day, but there would be more cloud and some rain developing further west I imagine. 

The GFS 12Z is another absolute cracker for warmth- I think this latest run is the warmest yet. We also may get another very warm day on Saturday if this run comes off. In that setup on Thursday I'd say a few places may reach the magic 80F, and 25C could be fairly widespread, as it was in the 2003 spell.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

About time too, this week been vile here in the east, not made double figures, and forecasts were rubbish saying this was only for the coast

That's an understatement! Temp has been stuck at 5c all week, wet at times and thoroughly miserable, if you venture outside. Still, it's not as cold as the beginning of the month when max's were 1-4 degrees with torrential rain/sleet/snow for 3 of the 4 Easter day's. Continues the theme of the last 10 month here, eternal winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's only natural that we're looking for breakdowns before the event even arrives, we do the same in winter when the models show a cold spell but really we should just enjoy the fact that a summery spell is nailed on for most of next week and could last longer as some output has shown recently..it's a spell of June like weather shown on the Gfs 12z in mid april..let's make the most of what we get next week..it's a Bonus!:)🌞🍦🌴

12_147_uk2mtmp.png

12_147_mslp500.png

12_171_uk2mtmp.png

12_171_mslp500.png

12_195_uk2mtmp.png

12_195_mslp500.png

12_219_mslp850.png

12_219_uk2mtmp.png

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Bit of a disappointing ECM 12Z compared to what we've had previously. Let's hope it's being a bit hasty in bringing that low in from the west- on this run it begins to exert its influence as early as Friday. No doubt eastern areas would still get a mostly fine and very warm day, but there would be more cloud and some rain developing further west I imagine. 

The GFS 12Z is another absolute cracker for warmth- I think this latest run is the warmest yet. We also may get another very warm day on Saturday if this run comes off. In that setup on Thursday I'd say a few places may reach the magic 80F, and 25C could be fairly widespread, as it was in the 2003 spell.

not that bad, just think what it's like now in my location, stuck at 7 degrees, cold wind, dark skies, hopefully won't see these temps again until Nov

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not that bad, just think what it's like now in my location, stuck at 7 degrees, cold wind, dark skies, hopefully won't see these temps again until Nov

And if we could have 4-5 days of fine, warm weather then that's nothing to be sniffed at - and in the UK expecting much more is unrealistic. We don't often get weeks of settled, warm weather - usually periods of warm followed by periods of cool.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JMA is much better in the extended range compared to ECM

J192-21.thumb.GIF.a02b1406e7ac7bfa954c90e977aace2d.GIFECM1-192.thumb.GIF.f46bda2dcdceecb1ea68d5fe5f4e4ea1.GIF

Plenty of welcome warmth to get through first before we worry about when any breakdown may happen

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Models showing much consistency with heights set to build in from the east, ushering in a much milder SE feed of air from off the continent. Question is how warm might things get - much I suspect will depend on sunshine amounts, it could be quite a hazy type of set up, conversely it could be a blue sky type of set up - hard to tell. Mid 20's certainly plausible for central and south east parts.

Longer term - signals of a classic switcharound from early summer southerly warmth to late winter northerly cold, heights look set to build to the NW, the trough will have nowhere to go but south again.

  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My last comment for today.  Cross model agreement on this warm up has been from 7 days away, so FI is T168 - how often does this happen in the winter, hey? Different season. Heatwave?  Officially if 5C warmer than average for 5 days, that's the Met Office definition, we're good on first, to be decided on second.  
Moving on, here's the 12z ECM ensemble mean at T240

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Spring has sprung, whether or not the heatwave is transitory. But also interesting to look at something from earlier, the system that will push all this warm air north, here in its glory at T108:

gfs-0-108.png?12

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good news from the ECM ens it keeps pressure fairly high over the UK

EDU1-192.GIF.thumb.png.709933fcb004989e1490e16826570bb7.pngEDU1-216.GIF.thumb.png.44283e70412b6e50b692aba7e25ae7b4.pngEDU1-240.GIF.thumb.png.5fb82fa5f1fc561391dac163641c9336.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_2.thumb.png.874ec9a47f810385ae439c254e53064c.pngECMAVGEU12_216_2.thumb.png.bee8ca88ef722a44089e5131042176d5.pngECMAVGEU12_240_2.thumb.png.ff44419480172d8b8ec0b35426d02271.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Indeed Mike, we have a great big Atlantic low to thank for next weeks unusual warmth as it will scoop up tropical maritime air sourced from Bermuda / Azores and then we tap into air from southern Europe..it's win / win next week..just the thing after this weeks cold cloudy north sea filth!:)

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great to see high pressure making a fairly quick return on the 18z

airpressure.thumb.png.dc3302f7f0a7f533b167e719f5636bbb.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Great to see high pressure making a fairly quick return on the 18z

airpressure.thumb.png.dc3302f7f0a7f533b167e719f5636bbb.png

GFS 0z shows the Azores swiftly moving in to replace the scani high..... Wouldn't it be lovely to see this pattern keep repeating for say, 6 months 😂.....How I dream of a long, dry summer like '03 again. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...