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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

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19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Will be interesting to see if the retrogressive signal carries on apace.

gfs-0-276.png?12

We could go from pleasant to not very pleasant at all in the space of a day or two...

By the end of the run, it goes on to show that even in late April, the cold can still hit- snow risk returns for Scotland.

gfs-0-372.png?12

gfs-1-360.png?12

Yes Crewe that would be quite a notable upper pool of cold air coming south within that Scandi trough.

The 500hPa temperature modeled on this run- lower than -40c for a time- puts it in polar low territory.Snowfall quite possible down to low levels even at that time of year as shown on the precipitation chart.

 

gfs-13-360.png?12 gfs-2-360.png?12

The Arctic air mass would be likely  to experience some modification during it's southern track but the far north, particularly the N Isles certainly at risk on that,if it were to come about.

Purely for interest at this stage of course.

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Yes, interesting evolution towards the end of that GFS run.  But the GEM is a gem at T240, really sucking the warm air up from the south.

gem-0-240.png?12

gem-1-240.png?12

Edited by Mike Poole

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Widespread snow for the whole of the uk at the end of the GFS

06DF6751-63E8-4DC6-9442-3C43B3C5679C.png

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In the shorter term, we have consistency for above average temps across most of the UK the one slight exception to it is NE Scotland

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.7e90d2f84e598e5aaf198f5880976b04.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun

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Week 2 does suggest we will have an amplified pattern with a ridge close to or just east of the UK and another building in the Atlantic with a weakening trough in between.

gens-21-1-192.png   gens-21-1-240.png   gens-21-1-300.png

A lot of potential outcomes, though most likely we would probably see the high to our ENE drift further west, though of course how far west is the major question mark here. You can see a strong retrogression signal that could develop a cold northerly, or you could see the high merely drift over the UK and maintain a more settled spell of weather for the UK. It does look like by the end of this week we will begin to see drier and brighter weather develop with temperatures responding with this with temperatures reaching the high teens or approaching 20C.

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The cold end to GFS 12z is supported by a grand total of 3 runs

graphe_ens3_hjv0.thumb.gif.2de5a54b43f90deb668a6a34ae66f328.gif

Edited by Summer Sun

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Do hope the weather to the east of europe makes it to the UK.

Left London on a murky wet cool day and arrived in Berlin to a sunny warm afternoon and evening

Friends are in Nice and its none too pleasant there either, so let that high extend across and all will be well 

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ECM ensembles from 12z looking very good for warm spell.  Here's the mean at T240

EDM1-240.GIF

Perhaps more tellingly, here's the spread, showing very low uncertainty in the region of the high pressure to the NE.

EEM1-240.GIF

Edited by Mike Poole

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Fairly typical April synoptics on offer - i.e. less of atlantic driven conditions, and more of a blocked set up holding sway. In the short term, we have the trough plaguing the UK unfortunately bringing bouts of rain and much cloud, and with an easterly wind, not feeling very pleasant, however, towards the end of the week, the trough is squeezed out and we see a drier SE flow take hold ushering in some nice Spring warmth with temps widely in the teens for all, possibly and some welcome sunshine and dry weather.

Divergence then takes place, with ECM maintaining the dry warmer outlook, GFS showing a colder unsettled evolution eventually with heights retrogressing towards Greenland. My hunch is something more akin to ECM, but with heights further west, which could then either sink, stay in situ or indeed retrogress NW. GFS might therefore be onto the right trend but perhaps too eager to bring it in.. 

Overall mid April is looking very springlike and will herald the start of a major shift in general feel of things, when we can shrug of the last vagaries of the winter season and move into the warmer half of the year (late April - late October) and indeed generally the sunnier most settled and often driest third of the year (late April-late July).

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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Fairly typical April synoptics on offer - i.e. less of atlantic driven conditions, and more of a blocked set up holding sway. In the short term, we have the trough plaguing the UK unfortunately bringing bouts of rain and much cloud, and with an easterly wind, not feeling very pleasant, however, towards the end of the week, the trough is squeezed out and we see a drier SE flow take hold ushering in some nice Spring warmth with temps widely in the teens for all, possibly and some welcome sunshine and dry weather.

Divergence then takes place, with ECM maintaining the dry warmer outlook, GFS showing a colder unsettled evolution eventually with heights retrogressing towards Greenland. My hunch is something more akin to ECM, but with heights further west, which could then either sink, stay in situ or indeed retrogress NW. GFS might therefore be onto the right trend but perhaps too eager to bring it in.. 

Overall mid April is looking very springlike and will herald the start of a major shift in general feel of things, when we can shrug of the last vagaries of the winter season and move into the warmer half of the year (late April - late October) and indeed generally the sunnier most settled and often driest third of the year (late April-late July).

Aptly put,the country of two seasons.Somehow I like that.

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Could it be possible that this current run of non Atlantic systems be with us the rest of the year so leading to a very early winter if all pieces in place just asking creating some debate.

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51 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

Could it be possible that this current run of non Atlantic systems be with us the rest of the year so leading to a very early winter if all pieces in place just asking creating some debate.

It's way too early to tell if the weather pattern will stay the same into the second-half of the year. Although, if I were to guess I would say no as unusual weather patterns have been with us for quite a few months now and it can't last forever. But time will tell.

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5 hours ago, Hammer50 said:

Could it be possible that this current run of non Atlantic systems be with us the rest of the year so leading to a very early winter if all pieces in place just asking creating some debate.

Is this model discussion? In any case there is no way to tell, or no proven connection whatsoever. What do you mean by an 'early winter'? From my point of view, I would be delighted if warm/mild weather continued well into November.

This is a long way out from the ECM, but the trend is there. A really stunning chart for April with high pressure centred just to our east:

ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

ECMOPEU00_216_2.png

A warmer spell is looking more and more likely by the day. In the latter stages of both the GFS 00Z and ECM 00Z I see similarities to mid April 2003 with more of a S/SE flow developing:

April 16th 2003:

archives-2003-4-16-12-0.png

GFS 00Z:

GFSOPEU00_231_1.png

 

 

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5 hours ago, Hammer50 said:

Could it be possible that this current run of non Atlantic systems be with us the rest of the year so leading to a very early winter if all pieces in place just asking creating some debate.

Seriously. Who cares, summers coming and its about time !!

next week looking lovely ! beer garden stuff !

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Models are firming up on our first of hopefully many summery spells next week with temperatures into the 70's F..coldies have had 2 Beasts this spring which was amazing but now it's time for warmth and I hope it's just the appetizer to a great summer!🌞🌞..cracking Ecm 00z:)

Edited by Frosty.

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Nice to see the possibility of some warmer and drier weather showing on the models next week with chances of a trough/Low Pressure in the Atlantic digging far enough South to help encourage a build of heights to the East of the U.K into Mainland Europe

So need a break from these Novembery conditions (so do hope it materialises) ☀️

Let’s also try to keep this thread friendly please. Cheers 😼

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Upper teens to low 20's very possible if the 00z ECM is on the money which it hopefully will be

ECMWF_138_EU_T2M_en-US_eu.thumb.png.a506e6fd53070aa78045d585c8f04e41.pngECMWF_162_EU_T2M_en-US_eu.thumb.png.b40c62ab97f8524f0756434284073cf4.pngECMWF_186_EU_T2M_en-US_eu.thumb.png.5d6fb64588fdea351f9682d666df1c44.pngECMWF_210_EU_T2M_en-US_eu.thumb.png.935abefa84ae3217c22ec6fc50fb6567.pngECMWF_228_EU_T2M_en-US_eu.thumb.png.327a6596d870755399d7dac2a5e5cedb.png

:)

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The ECMWF-GFS anomly charts do show a pattern that, if it firms up to the actual pattern in the 6-10 day time scale, would give warmth for most of the UK. The first such signal for a few months. NOAA did not publish last evening so no idea what their take is on this. The other anomaly charts do look quite similar to the EC-GFS output so hopefully that pattern will be close to the actual charts in the 6-10 day time scale.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=5&carte=0

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Sorry I can't post the charts right now but take my word for it that the Ecm 00z ensemble mean blossoms into a beautiful run next week with high pressure becoming centred to the east and increasingly warm continental air drifting across the uk..temps into the low 70's F...dare I say edging towards the mid 70's F across parts of the s / e could occur next week!..superb if it happens:)🌞🌞

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To have the ECM op showing warm settled weather is good to have support from the ens is superb

ECMAVGEU00_144_2.thumb.png.9d0e6a1d790a1039e65e23a9f7a96aa8.pngECMAVGEU00_168_2.thumb.png.ce21097661f7910afe0ebd43b95106ab.pngECMAVGEU00_192_2.thumb.png.cf039c50ef5f9dc911a554a62f5121e1.pngECMAVGEU00_216_2.thumb.png.da51a2b7fbb10282384c22cd61afb5ce.pngECMAVGEU00_240_2.thumb.png.da19cc38c087e6b8062f4470c4695597.png

It is very much a case of the trend is your friend if you want pleasantly warm settled conditions

:)

Edited by Summer Sun

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Sorry I can't post the charts right now but take my word for it that the Ecm 00z ensemble mean blossoms into a beautiful run next week with high pressure becoming centred to the east and increasingly warm continental air drifting across the uk..temps into the low 70's F...dare I say edging towards the mid 70's F across parts of the s / e could occur next week!..superb if it happens:)🌞🌞

I think the same - GFS / ECM raw charts currently suggesting low 70Fs for the middle of next week (21C-22C) - but I can recall many similar charts in mid April that have returned maximums of 24C or 25C in the most favoured spots.

EC Clusters for this morning not quite out yet, but last night's were absolutely A1 for April warmth over the UK by T216:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018040912_216.

An area of heights just to our east and a straight line in the contours from the south or south-east - fairly good agreement across clusters - you really can't get better for warmth than that. Reminiscent of some of the extreme plume charts from recent summers (of course far too early for that much heat).

Maybe not quite time yet for beachwear, but perhaps time to stock up on the suncream!!

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forgot to mention - we now have a 1030mb mean high just to the east at T216 - BOOOOOOOOOOM in a warm sense :)

gens-21-1-216.png  EDM1-216.GIF?10-12

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