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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO, GFS & ECM at D7 all have a flow from the east whilst the latter 2 don't have much rain UKMO picks up more moisture from the north sea

ecm2.2018041112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.99e035a2a8ac7bd47b5454eca379f57d.pnggfs2.2018041112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.bec9f5437f0e6ce0dd5dbb4c53b4479c.pngukm2.2018041112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.320518e0bc03982b7ce600224b970758.png

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all :)

Yesterday, the battle between the westerly and easterly evolutions appeared to have been convincingly won by the latter but the next variation was along the lines of "how would you like your easterly ?" which meant either cold as in air sourced from Scandinavia/Russia or warm as in air sourced from the Black Sea. Yesterday's ECM 00Z went for the former but 12Z went for the latter while GEM was cold throughout.

Let's see where we are this morning looking at the medium term output up to Sunday April 15th.

Starting as always with ECM 00Z at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?05-12

This ends effectively where GFS 00Z OP did yesterday. The easterly sets up next Tuesday as the LP drops south into northern France but by the end of the week both the LP and the Scandinavian HP are declining and we end with this very messy chart with a broad shallow trough over western Europe and heights over northern Scandinavian. Very light winds but probably reasonable weather for most. The Azores HP is trying to ridge in but the Atlantic isn't going anywhere quickly.

GEM 00Z at T+240:

gem-0-240.png?00

Not dissimilar to the ECM this morning. The easterly sets up but by the weekend it's breaking down. Heights remain low over Europe with a weak ridge from the Azores across the north of the British Isles to Scandinavia keeping most places settled with any residual showers confined to southern and eastern parts. The Atlantic LP is encroaching so you'd think a return to a more westerly set up from here looks likely.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png

Counter intuitively, the GFS OP keeps the easterly going. The original HP cell declines SE but a new cell sets up to the west of Norway and maintains the easterly as the European trough re-organises in response. It's possible the GEM and ECM models above could see similar evolutions beyond T+240 - GFS is more progressive by 24-36 hours. The trough has centres over the western Mediterranean and Germany. The origin of the air flow is to the south and 850s are positive so it's not cold and you'd think rain or showers for southern and eastern parts would continue while the north and north west in particular would enjoy some fine weather with plenty of sunshine.

Further into FI and the easterly fades and the Atlantic returns but with heights close to the SE the weather balance flips back to the more traditional so better for the SE, worse for the NW.

GFS 00Z Control at the same time:

gens-0-1-240.png

Not dissimilar to the OP with a slack ENE'ly flow over the British Isles. A very different evolution further into FI with a strong HP setting up in mid Atlantic and the trough dropping across the British Isles leaving a cool NW'ly flow.

The GEFS 00Z at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

The OP and Control certainly in a strong majority cluster favouring northern blocking though even within that there are variations (P5 and P9 the treat for the "warmies") so whether the HP is over Scandinavia, Greenland or just to the north of the British Isles far from resolved. Just a couple of Members offering an Atlantic alternative at this time.

Looking further ahead, the Atlantic return is by no means convincing in the GEFS. I detect a signal for MLB close to or over the British Isles so perhaps a much drier second half of April ?

IN summary, the evolution to an easterly looks set for next week. We're not talking Beast 4.0 or anything like that but the possibility of a nagging chilly breeze on eastern coasts can't be ruled out but easterlies aren't unusual in April and in a year with such a weak jet, perhaps inevitable.

It does seem as though the easterly "could" be quite prolonged lasting 7-10 days at least as the HP re-invigorates to the west of Norway and while there's a signal for an Atlantic return 14 days from  now it's far too early to be convincing. If you can get away for that Hebridean break at short notice, it might be a great time to go. For most of us, a slow improvement as temperatures return to something more seasonal but the threat of rain and showers for southern and eastern areas remains though other areas should dry up.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
15 hours ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Depending on who's view you're referring to then yes good news for people who want warmer conditions which besides will happen since spring is upon us but for the cold fans well better luck next time I hope 

Summer Sun is a mild ramper ,if you hadn’t noticed lol ,hoping mild  will win out ,even if charts are showing -20 hpa arriving.Does it throughout the year though ,so at least he is consistent in his mild ramping :gathering:

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
49 minutes ago, stodge said:

IN summary, the evolution to an easterly looks set for next week. We're not talking Beast 4.0 or anything like that but the possibility of a nagging chilly breeze on eastern coasts can't be ruled out but easterlies aren't unusual in April and in a year with such a weak jet, perhaps inevitable.

Of course beast 3.0 never turned up :wink:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Models are generally looking more spring-like so far today compared to yesterday, in terms of temperatures at least! ..(based on Gfs / Gem / Ecm 00z)..still some unsettled weather but also plenty of benign pleasant surface conditions at times too..:)?

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's plenty of pleasantly warm weather shown in the Gfs 6z operational, especially further s / se with temps into the 60's F at times, yes there is some unsettled weather but also spells of more settled conditions with sunny spells..more like spring! ???:)

06_105_uk2mtmp.png

06_153_ukthickness850.png

06_177_mslp500.png

06_177_ukthickness850.png

06_201_ukthickness850.png

06_201_mslp500.png

06_201_uk2mtmp.png

06_225_uk2mtmp.png

06_225_mslp500.png

06_225_mslp850.png

06_225_ukthickness850.png

06_228_uk2mtmp.png

06_252_uk2mtmp.png

06_276_uk2mtmp.png

06_300_uk2mtmp.png

06_300_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
22 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Models are generally looking more spring-like so far today compared to yesterday, in terms of temperatures at least! ..(based on Gfs / Gem / Ecm 00z)..still some unsettled weather but also plenty of benign pleasant surface conditions at times too..:)?

gfs-1-384.png?6

:):)

A cracking chart for Frosty and Summer Sun as Beast 3.0 makes a delayed appearance.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

For the 1st time in god knows how long all the UK is shown to be no worse than average temp wise on the 7-day forecast mean

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.21ca2f61632007fc9ff88844c79262c6.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
14 minutes ago, stodge said:

 

:):)

A cracking chart for Frosty and Summer Sun as Beast 3.0 makes a delayed appearance.

Yes, thankfully it is 16 days away so has only a small prob of being near the mark!

What happens in the 6-14 day period depends on just where, first of all, the upper pattern settles, with the position of the upper ridge the governing factor. Most anomaly charts do suggest an  upper ridge NE of the UK, see links below. If it is well north then the weather would be on the cold side of normal, if it settles further south then we could expect temperatures to be above normal.

Details o the actual surface weather only becoming more clear from the synoptic model outputs much nearer the time.

Interesting to see how the weather actually pans out.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

21 folk on here recently, sums up how our cold lovers are thinking now we head into spring perhaps?

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean shows heights generally persisting to the NE across scandinavia which for the most part holds the atlantic at bay, there is no real threat from the atlantic in terms of the usual strong winds and spells of rain interspersed with showers, actually the pattern looks rather slow moving with the emphasis on predominantly benign with lighter winds and some pleasant surface conditions at times, however, northern britain tends to stay on the cool side but nothing like as cold as spring so far and there are milder spells further north too..all in all, despite some unsettled weather it looks quite decent really.:)

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
38 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

21 folk on here recently, sums up how our cold lovers are thinking now we head into spring perhaps

To be honest, John, I find this synoptically the most interesting time of the year. Almost irrespective of the surface conditions, the synoptic evolutions are more diverse than at any other time.

Looking at the 06Z GEFS, the OP not entirely without support but as we move into FI, the question becomes what next ?

As we saw earlier in the week, the competing evolutions were a return to Atlantic dominance with westerlies or a continuation of the northern blocking pattern with easterlies - both these having variations on that theme.

The Easterlies won the first round of that battle and we look to have a 7-10 day spell of easterly winds from early next week. They won't be cold - you really need a NE flow at this time of year to advect any serious cold from Scandinavia.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
22 minutes ago, stodge said:

To be honest, John, I find this synoptically the most interesting time of the year. Almost irrespective of the surface conditions, the synoptic evolutions are more diverse than at any other time.

Looking at the 06Z GEFS, the OP not entirely without support but as we move into FI, the question becomes what next ?

As we saw earlier in the week, the competing evolutions were a return to Atlantic dominance with westerlies or a continuation of the northern blocking pattern with easterlies - both these having variations on that theme.

The Easterlies won the first round of that battle and we look to have a 7-10 day spell of easterly winds from early next week. They won't be cold - you really need a NE flow at this time of year to advect any serious cold from Scandinavia.

Europe has warmed up, but unfortunately the north sea will cool things off for the eastern side of the UK, so we are looking at 7 to 10 days of utter garbage in the east, not cold enough for snow, not warm and sunny either, just gloom doom. With garbage weather like that, there will probably be only one person left posting in here. Enjoy the forum Summer Sun:oops::rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
12 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Europe has warmed up, but unfortunately the north sea will cool things off for the eastern side of the UK, so we are looking at 7 to 10 days of utter garbage in the east, not cold enough for snow, not warm and sunny either, just gloom doom

Well, that's cheery :)

Looking at the Danish Weather Service, the warm Southerly we were due to get at the weekend is reaching them with 17-18c the call on Saturday and Sunday.

Interesting to note a significant cool-down as the wind shifts east on Monday with temperatures 7-12c.

We're simply not going to get winter cold in April from an easterly (everyone knows that). Even a NE'ly won't deliver that as the numbers from Kiruna in the far north will tell you:

https://www.smhi.se/vadret/vadret-i-sverige/ortsprognoser/q/Kiruna/605155#tab=0,chart=1

Finland is now mostly above freezing by day (though not at night) apart from the very NW corner.

If you want an ice day now, head for Verkhoyansk though even there the daytime maximum in the strengthening sun is getting close to freezing.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

OK so the 12s then.  Focussing on the T144 to T 240 timescale, it looks like high pressure to the ENE is the form horse, so milder weather for us, UKMO at T144

UW144-21.GIF?05-18

ICON at T180

icon-0-180.png?05-12

GFS at T192

gfs-0-192.png?12

GEM isn't playing ball tonight, still at T84, so I won't include that one.

Slow, drawn out, progression to spring, hopefully fast transition then to summer! 

There's some weird pictures being thrown up by the models but what is this one-eyed clown doing to our west?

gfs-0-234.png?12

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
2 hours ago, stodge said:

Well, that's cheery :)

Looking at the Danish Weather Service, the warm Southerly we were due to get at the weekend is reaching them with 17-18c the call on Saturday and Sunday.

Interesting to note a significant cool-down as the wind shifts east on Monday with temperatures 7-12c.

We're simply not going to get winter cold in April from an easterly (everyone knows that). Even a NE'ly won't deliver that as the numbers from Kiruna in the far north will tell you:

https://www.smhi.se/vadret/vadret-i-sverige/ortsprognoser/q/Kiruna/605155#tab=0,chart=1

Finland is now mostly above freezing by day (though not at night) apart from the very NW corner.

If you want an ice day now, head for Verkhoyansk though even there the daytime maximum in the strengthening sun is getting close to freezing.

or Edmonton still -10c by day and close to -25c at night

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Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

Anyone know how WeatherOnline forecasts daily sunshine hours on their forecasts?

Looking at the 2 week trend for London, I don't think I could cope with such a cloudy April, after a near record-breaking cloudy March! They have us with under 55 hours up to the 18th!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
23 hours ago, Frosty. said:

I'm really hoping for hints of our first proper warm spell, as I'm sure are many now..I will keep looking, it's bound to happen sometime!:)

 

Didn't take as long as I thought it would, found it on the Gfs 12z..albeit deep FI  but that's a minor detail:shok::D:whistling:??

12_312_uk2mtmp.png

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12_312_ukthickness850.png

12_336_ukthickness850.png

12_336_uk2mtmp.png

12_336_mslp850.png

12_384_uk2mtmp.png

12_384_mslp500.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There is actually quite a lot of mild weather during high res on the Gfs 12z, some lucky areas could hit the mid 60's F in the next few days for example and next week southern uk in particular is generally pleasantly on the mild side, especially monday..:)

12_27_uk2mtmp.png

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12_147_mslp850.png

12_171_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

It's difficult to know what to say this evening. Yesterday the models were split between cold north of easterlies, and south of easterlies and it is a massive difference for the UK at this time of year. Easterlies it  look like we are going to get but ECM (here at T192) supports earlier model output for the warmer option

ECM1-192.GIF?05-0

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Following on from the 06z the 12z 7-day forecast mean shows the UK no worse than average with the vast majority see temps a bit above normal

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.b8421357847cd49dac0b51f14f1f93b2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Surely most of us are looking for milder / warmer days now?..anyway, the models today have generally moved away from a return to unseasonably cold weather and are now strongly supportive of mild or even pleasantly warm weather at times, still with some rain / showers but with fine spells too.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
45 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It's difficult to know what to say this evening. Yesterday the models were split between cold north of easterlies, and south of easterlies and it is a massive difference for the UK at this time of year. Easterlies it  look like we are going to get but ECM (here at T192) supports earlier model output for the warmer option

ECM1-192.GIF?05-0

 

A big diurnal temp in this chart :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
47 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Following on from the 06z the 12z 7-day forecast mean shows the UK no worse than average with the vast majority see temps a bit above normal

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.b8421357847cd49dac0b51f14f1f93b2.png

All interesting time of year as restless transition from cold to warm. I'm foreseeing some decent weather in western and northern areas in the next 2 weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

All interesting time of year as restless transition from cold to warm. I'm foreseeing some decent weather in western and northern areas in the next 2 weeks.

Yep

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.2c05998eb6051c1113115752d174a37d.png

Poor old Spain and Portugal...

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just looking at the GEFS 12z mean shows generally pleasantly mild conditions across the southern half of the uk throughout and even scotland, after a cold start becomes noticeably milder from next week..in a nutshell, the weather looks mixed but at least temperatures are returning back to where they should be as we move further into april and with some pleasantly warm conditions at times too, especially further south.:)

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