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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

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GFS brings in an easterly nippy in the east but get further inland in the south and temps respond quite well

GFSOPEU06_159_2.thumb.png.95ea346b1c8bde974a75fd8c25b8d75c.pngGFSOPUK06_153_24.thumb.png.4d26f9ab85fe545ca06270e8030c5de4.pngGFSOPUK06_153_5.thumb.png.b2bfaf99026a333a1cfea97ad89caf6c.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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Morning all :)

Signs of a more traditional April pattern in the south with heavy showers rather than heavy rain and a reminder that the Sun is now packing a bit more of a punch. In the north and over high ground, winter clings on as this most unusual early spring continues. Yesterday there seemed to be two distinct evolutions on offer - the mobile Atlantic westerly pattern so beloved of GFS or a continuation of northern blocking and a trough over Europe providing an easterly pattern for the British Isles.

So where does this morning's output put us - today I'm looking ahead to Saturday April 14th, Grand National Day.

Starting as always with ECM 00Z at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?04-12

ECM remains strongly in the easterly camp this morning. The LP early next week slides SE into France and then returns NE into central Europe. With heights building to the west of Scandinavia the British Isles is in a chilly easterly flow for much of next week though western and northern parts will always have greater prospects of drier weather than southern and eastern areas.

GEM 00Z OP at T+240:

gem-0-240.png?00

GEM has banged the drum consistently for the easterly so no surprise to see it produce a chart close to ECM. The European trough develops in situ over the Low Countries and it's basically a wet and not terribly warm outlook for southern and eastern parts. Further north more chance of settled conditions closer to the HP but it's a brisk ENE'ly flow for many so not very spring-like.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png

A more progressive evolution from the GFS which is something we often see. While GEM and ECM maintain the European trough and Scandinavian HP GFS is already filling the former, declining the latter and shifting both to the east opening the door (you'd think) to an Atlantic LP and the ridging Azores HP. However, further into FI heights build again to the west of Scandinavian and the Atlantic LP heads SE toward northern France so the easterly returns as does the rain to the south.

GFS 06Z OP at T+234:

gfs-0-234.png?6

More like the GEM and ECM 00Z evolutions with a large HP over the Northern North Sea and ridging into Scandinavia with LP over Iberia and the Mediterranean so an ENE'ly flow for the British Isles but generally dry and not too bad for northern and western parts. More risk of rain or showers further south and east. Further into FI the easterly pattern continues even as the HP slowly retreats and LP closes in from the south.

GFS 00Z Control at T+240:

gens-0-1-240.png

Again, the easterly pattern is confirmed with a moderate ENE'ly flow over the British Isles. Further into FI the HP retrogresses to Greenland but remains in charge with a strong ridge south so most areas dry but not excitingly warm and plenty of frost risk under clear skies,

The 00Z GEFS at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

Perhaps not quite as unanimous as I had envisaged and the Mean offers more Atlantic influence but there is a strong cluster based around blocking to the NE or NW and some very cold Members (P7 being a good example). There are others where the negatively tilted trough is calling the shots and two or three have a warmer more settled SW'ly with the Azores HP ridging forward.

In summary, it looks game, set and match to the easterly this morning with as much cross model agreement as I've seen since the run-up to Beast 1.0. All the models suggest the LP next month sliding SE as heights build, to the NE and some form of east or north-east flow becoming established. Once there, there's no easy way back and given April's tendency to produce easterlies this could be a significant pattern for the month so a good time for that Scottish holiday in the Hebrides while for southern England in particular spring looks a very long way off this morning.

 

 

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06z London ens mean shows a steady drop back closer to average as we move towards the 2nd half of the month

gefsens850London06.thumb.png.4db6d6b42b0f5c2dd26010abc58ebf3d.png

Even the Inverness ens mean gets slightly above average after a prolonged spell well below average

gefsens850Inverness0.thumb.png.218771c9a30d61237e7e3af8aecdb75f.png

 

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Just looked through the GEFS 6z mean, my opinion is it's not a bad outlook at all, temps further south are frequently into the low teens celsius, cooler at times further north.. sure there are some unsettled spells but also some fine periods with higher pressure / ridging bringing pleasant surface conditions at times along with some chilly nights with a touch of frost but as I said it doesn't look bad..and neither does the latest update either for that matter!..looking forward to some proper warmth, hopefully it won't be too long..at least we are heading in the right direction!🌞🌞:)

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I'm sure some of you are thinking what I'm thinking about the Gfs 12z operational from later next week onwards which is..if only this was winter!..blocked with Ely / NEly winds and temps dropping well below average, even cold enough for some snow, especially on hills in the north into the second half of april, just imagine what it would have been like if  it was january!!..as it is, I'm really hoping for hints of our first proper warm spell, as I'm sure are many now..I will keep looking, it's bound to happen sometime!:)

12_195_uk2mtmp.png

12_195_mslp850.png

12_219_uk2mtmp.png

12_219_mslp850.png

12_300_mslp850.png

12_336_mslp850.png

12_336_preciptype.png

Edited by Frosty.
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12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm sure some of you are thinking what I'm thinking about the Gfs 12z operational from later next week onwards which is..if only this was winter!..blocked with Ely / NEly winds and temps dropping well below average, even cold enough for some snow, especially on hills in the north into the second half of april, just imagine what it would have been like if  it was january!!..as it is, I'm really hoping for hints of our first proper warm spell, as I'm sure are many now..I will keep looking, it's bound to happen sometime!:)

12_195_uk2mtmp.png

12_195_mslp850.png

12_219_uk2mtmp.png

12_219_mslp850.png

It's not just the GFS, the GEM also showing a cold evolution next week, here on the 12z at T240

gem-0-240.png?12

gem-1-240.png?12

and on the 0z, ECM 0z was a direct hit.  UKMO at T144

UW144-21.GIF?04-19

Hinting at retrogression.  Strange output but the weather will do what the weather will do, or at this far out that should be the models will do what the models will do!

Edited by Mike Poole
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12 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I wonder where everyone went ? Anyone seen the model updates yet ?

Agreed, and just a reminder of the chilly 0z ECM output :cold:.....before the 12z comes out.

ECU0-240_jjm9.GIF

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18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It's not just the GFS, the GEM also showing a cold evolution next week, here on the 12z at T240

gem-0-240.png?12

gem-1-240.png?12

and on the 0z, ECM 0z was a direct hit.  UKMO at T144

UW144-21.GIF?04-19

Hinting at retrogression.  Strange output but the weather will do what the weather will do, or at this far out that should be the models will do what the models will do!

Yes indeed mike, the Gem 12z is even colder than the Gfs and just shows the wintry potential, even in mid april!:shok::cold-emoji:

219_mslp850.png

219_uk2mtmp.png

240_uk2mtmp.png

240_mslp850.png

b4a1da991a5c03539e371bb60a54aa40.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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It just goes to that anything can change at any time 🤔 maybe the hardcore cold fan return or this could be a ruse and it's sudden a hot flush 

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Shudder to think where this one is headed!

ECM1-144.GIF?04-0

Another 6 weeks or so that would have had some very cold air now all that will cool it down in the east is the north sea

ECU0-144.GIF.thumb.png.069c0b08411f07cf079ac63fda80fbcc.pngECU0-168.GIF.thumb.png.f5e55cdbb1e0b389f5c09f1e7f5e4662.png

 

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Another 6 weeks or so that would have had some very cold air now all that will cool it down in the east is the north sea

ECU0-144.GIF.thumb.png.069c0b08411f07cf079ac63fda80fbcc.pngECU0-168.GIF.thumb.png.f5e55cdbb1e0b389f5c09f1e7f5e4662.png

 

Do you mean six weeks earlier? I like the GFS idea of a Greenland High in fi, hopefully it's a precursor to a proper northerly blast.

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Looks terrible again. Plenty of flooding around here from the incessant rains the last week....nothing on the model output suggesting spring will arrive proper. If anything it looks to be getting cooler again. Yuck.

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1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

Do you mean six weeks earlier? I like the GFS idea of a Greenland High in fi, hopefully it's a precursor to a proper northerly blast.

Yes

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7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks terrible again. Plenty of flooding around here from the incessant rains the last week....nothing on the model output suggesting spring will arrive proper. If anything it looks to be getting cooler again. Yuck.

Same here, and it's been a very cold rain too. Most day's the last week have been lucky to scrape 4c as a max and it's currently snowing again. Higher ground has seen several episodes of lying snow.

Can't believe that after models hinted at something approaching average the GFS is now leading us back into another easterly! When will this never ending winter blow itself out! Well yes , I know it's already mid spring.

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Good to see ECM has dropped that really cold air from the 00z

12z

ECM0-216.thumb.GIF.837223d6c8647afd326ae98d2703f169.GIFECM0-240.thumb.GIF.4d887788dbab6fa38156337f95cbe7cd.GIF

00z

ECM0-216.thumb.GIF.cb2b20cbae42a8621803cb58b81b0e67.GIFECM0-240.thumb.GIF.92607090482351a79eaa7aeb5c501412.GIF

:)

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The Ecm 12z Easterly is a lot milder than the Gfs / Gem and this mornings Ecm 00z, you just have to follow the isobars back to their original source to see why!:D🌞

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp850.png

144_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850.png

168_thickuk.png

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850.png

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32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Another 6 weeks or so that would have had some very cold air now all that will cool it down in the east is the north sea

ECU0-144.GIF.thumb.png.069c0b08411f07cf079ac63fda80fbcc.pngECU0-168.GIF.thumb.png.f5e55cdbb1e0b389f5c09f1e7f5e4662.png

 

Yes, agreed, my post, though, was considering the possibility of a swing round to a northerly, it didn't happen, here's the T240

ECM1-240.GIF?04-0

Edited by Mike Poole
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27 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Good to see ECM has dropped that really cold air from the 00z

12z

ECM0-216.thumb.GIF.837223d6c8647afd326ae98d2703f169.GIFECM0-240.thumb.GIF.4d887788dbab6fa38156337f95cbe7cd.GIF

00z

ECM0-216.thumb.GIF.cb2b20cbae42a8621803cb58b81b0e67.GIFECM0-240.thumb.GIF.92607090482351a79eaa7aeb5c501412.GIF

:)

Depending on who's view you're referring to then yes good news for people who want warmer conditions which besides will happen since spring is upon us but for the cold fans well better luck next time I hope 

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Both ECM and GFS showing the trough splitting over the Uk through the weekend, with one arm of the jet diving far to the south and another weaker arm moving SE through Scandi, allowing for substantial height rises to form to our north ushering in an easterly feed as we start next week, with the signal thereafter for heights to remain very strong over Greenland hence a north easterly feed could form. So nothing overly warm in the outlook despite a little bit of heat come Friday/Saturday in SE parts. However, it does look like we should see some more settled conditions, which will be welcomed by all on the back of a run of very unsettled April days.

Typing this with snow falling outside, certainly is an extended winter season this year. 

Unfortunately April and May see northerlies and easterlies at their yearly maxim and both month can be dominated with northerly and easterly airstreams, the former always brings chilly conditions,the latter sometimes cold sometimes something much warmer - compare likes of May 1996 and May 1998/2006 (first half) for example.

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Evening ,well a pattern change of some sorts from end of week into next week, looks likely a COL setting up for the uk ,between two highs and two lows so some at least milder weather ,warm in the Spring sunshine  but given a slack area of pressure one or two storms could develop and with clear skies at night potential for frost,  so not a perfect outlook but warmer drier and more settled quieter  conditions on offer tonight away from the foul weather of months and months....:)

ecmt850.120-1.png

h850t850eu-14.png

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The models leave us in a beautiful no-mans land for the week 2 possibilities.  For me the set up is illustrated by the GEM at T240

gem-0-240.png?12

A four-leaved clover setup if you like.  High heights to the NE & SW, low heights to the NW & SE, one of these will win out but which?  Anyone trying to predict  the weather for the 14th (my brother's wedding) would be tearing their hair out!!  Although I don't actually have much!:pardon:

Edited by Mike Poole
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Good to see ECM hasn't brought that cold air back again looks like yesterdays 00z was a rouge run

ECMOPEU00_96_2.thumb.png.765fae43afb1fe16403cfef2c68bd30b.pngECMOPEU00_144_2.thumb.png.c5e01d3465cbc0bda74c673233d73208.pngECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.a8eb950bb3293524d9b7f310305becb8.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.50836fcc7e894e14acb040eb185dc80c.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Good to see GEM has also moved away from colder air moving in from the east this morning whilst temps in the east would obviously be tampered by the north sea it doesn't look like a complete cloud fest so the feel wouldn't be too bad given the time of year

GEMOPEU00_108_2.thumb.png.49938b40ab0e284217df48d674468111.pngGEMOPEU00_132_2.thumb.png.3f2bfa0c48ee672ba26fafc0d1f56783.pngGEMOPEU00_156_2.thumb.png.25a19d072da918144166692ff73cc5a7.png

GEMOPEU00_180_2.thumb.png.95432683f9e25330201d3809db382f1d.pngGEMOPEU00_204_2.thumb.png.99e3383af0a9ccb279a19bb237a8ee0b.pngGEMOPEU00_228_2.thumb.png.3ad8961eaebad3d7db35fb5900a38f01.png

:)

Edited by Summer Sun

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