Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Eastnorthwest]

I'll say one thing this morning, the weather we have had mostly since December won't change much until that azores high shifts position ,

Yes we will see warmer days and then colder days ,but the pattern won't change until that high moves which is steering low after low towards us 

When we had the beast the azores high was split ,one going northeast the other went West a lowing the cold spell to last more than 10 days ,now we are back to what we had in December and January which is becoming a pain in the backside, and what we will carry on seeing until the main block over the azores goes

One or two might slate what I have posted ,but so be it ,I'm just saying how I see it and I see a weather stalemate which needs shifting so we can have some more settled weather 

[Summer Sun]

Nice to see more of Europe losing the blues on the 7-day forecast temps on the rise for England and Wales but Scotland and parts of NI & ROI still hang on to the blues

As for the trend at D7 it is simply stunning

Edited April 1, 2018 by Summer Sun

[damianslaw]

32 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

I'll say one thing this morning, the weather we have had mostly since December won't change much until that azores high shifts position ,

Yes we will see warmer days and then colder days ,but the pattern won't change until that high moves which is steering low after low towards us 

When we had the beast the azores high was split ,one going northeast the other went West a lowing the cold spell to last more than 10 days ,now we are back to what we had in December and January which is becoming a pain in the backside, and what we will carry on seeing until the main block over the azores goes

One or two might slate what I have posted ,but so be it ,I'm just saying how I see it and I see a weather stalemate which needs shifting so we can have some more settled weather 

Yes the synoptical set up is very reminiscent of December and January which brought very mixed and generally unsettled fayre, with only limited breaks of settled weather, weak ridging with the trough staying limpet to the UK, with alternating milder and colder periods, in Dec the colder conditions gained the upper hand, in January it was the other way round. We might see shortlived bursts of warmer uppers from the south, but nothing sustained, with the trough waiting to disrupt over the Uk again probably pulling down a cooler feed from the NW very quickly, This scenario is set to play out next week, Tuesday will bring warmer uppers from the south, then the trough is back on Wednesday collapsing over the country pulling in cooler uppers, then we see warmer uppers being pulled up over the Uk again end of the week, before the trough moves back in again, repeat performance.

April in the NW can often be the driest period of the year, but we need a big shake up, either strong ridge development from northern heights into mid atlantic - no sign of this, or the azores high building NE, again no sign of this, indeed more likely to see a temporary ridge setting up over the Uk, but then building NE, not a position for sustained warmer conditions, unless the jet steamrolls far to our NW. 

I can see April being another month that never settles into any specific groove. Mind I'd much rather have a high pressure set up shop over the UK in May than April, I'm always nervous when we see early warmth in April, 1987, 2007 and 2011 were all followed by poor summers. 

[Faronstream]

13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 

I can see April being another month that never settles into any specific groove. Mind I'd much rather have a high pressure set up shop over the UK in May than April, I'm always nervous when we see early warmth in April, 1987, 2007 and 2011 were all followed by poor summers. 

The summer of 2011 were not poor at all

[cheese]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

 

I can see April being another month that never settles into any specific groove. Mind I'd much rather have a high pressure set up shop over the UK in May than April, I'm always nervous when we see early warmth in April, 1987, 2007 and 2011 were all followed by poor summers. 

In April 2007, I remember having a drink of coca cola, therefore I declare that any time I drink coca cola in April, the following summer will be dreadful. Because apparently that's how things work.

[Summer Sun]

Nice to see England and Wales turning a different colour after spending so much time blue. Cooler in Scotland, NI & ROI at first but even here it warms up from D5 (Friday)

Edited April 1, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Had a look at NASA 00z for the end of next week and into the following week takes a couple of goes with the milder air to get in as the high gets into position

Can't grumble at that significantly better than what we had in March that is for sure

[Frosty.]

20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Can't grumble at that significantly better than what we had in March that is for sure

I thought march was great with not one but two Beasts! best month of wintry weather compared to dec / jan / feb  by far that's for sure!

Anyway, the models show the week ahead looks milder but still generally unsettled so nothing to celebrate there BUT a more settled mid april is still being talked about so fingers crossed on that! ?????

Edited April 1, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

4 hours ago, Eastnorthwest said:

I'll say one thing this morning, the weather we have had mostly since December won't change much until that azores high shifts position ,

Yes we will see warmer days and then colder days ,but the pattern won't change until that high moves which is steering low after low towards us 

When we had the beast the azores high was split ,one going northeast the other went West a lowing the cold spell to last more than 10 days ,now we are back to what we had in December and January which is becoming a pain in the backside, and what we will carry on seeing until the main block over the azores goes

One or two might slate what I have posted ,but so be it ,I'm just saying how I see it and I see a weather stalemate which needs shifting so we can have some more settled weather 

I don't think anyone who has been posting charts of most models showing a settled period mid April has suggested it's anything other than a transient affair.  The jet steam has a fair way to move north to get to a good summer position, and that will probably take some time.  Far too early to make any kind of prediction about the longer term prospects into summer, I think.

Edited April 1, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

Not looking great midweek, ICON 12z looks like  a Scream! scenario:

Albeit with a sticky-out right ear.  Dreadful weather. Roll on this modelled settled period!

Edit: and by T120 the ghost is gone and we're in a southerly:

Edited April 1, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Summer Sun]

12z ICON looking very nice towards the end of the week with temps on the rise very nicely indeed

[Summer Sun]

Great to see 12z GFS upgrading the warmth for Saturday compared to the 06z

12z

06z

[nick sussex]

Roll on November when we can get back to our cold and snow chase! 

Seriously though it’s felt like a very long winter. All the best synoptics turned up right at the end which is a shame . Having said that  the depth of cold both in the beast and mini beast was quite exceptional for the time of year , the former in terms of windchill was probably something younger members hadn’t experienced before. 

So rare has that type of easterly been in recent years. 

 

[Ice Man 85]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Roll on November when we can get back to our cold and snow chase! 

Seriously though it’s felt like a very long winter. All the best synoptics turned up right at the end which is a shame . Having said that  the depth of cold both in the beast and mini beast was quite exceptional for the time of year , the former in terms of windchill was probably something younger members hadn’t experienced before. 

So rare has that type of easterly been in recent years. 

 

Exactly. A certain somone's going to be insufferable over the next few months.

[johnholmes]

Thankfully GFS is showing decent temperatures at last. Winter is fine in meteorological winter, even in to early March but not with the start of April thank you. I'm not sure if it has the correct idea re some of its maximum values into next weekend, looking at the anomaly charts they still suggest much of the time that the upper flow is going to be from a westerly point rather than well backed from that direction. links below The one showing this most is NOAA which tends to be nearer the mark than the other two. They could give some quite warm air being fed up from the south. WE have to wait and see what the weather actually decides to do a week from now.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited April 1, 2018 by johnholmes
incorrect word

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Thankfully GFS is showing decent temperatures at last. Winter is fine in meteorological winter, even in to early March but not with the start of April thank you. I'm not sure if it has the correct idea re some of its maximum values into next weekend, looking at the anomaly charts they still suggest much of the time that the upper flow is going to be from a westerly point rather than well back from that direction. links below The one showing this most is NOAA which tends to be nearer the mark than the other two. They could give some quite warm air being fed up from the south. WE have to wait and see what the weather actually decides to do a week from now.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The same not go for meteorological summer, John? Lets have some balance here.

[johnholmes]

1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

The same not go for meteorological summer, John? Lets have some balance here.

I thought I had given a balanced response, yes summer June-September with gradual declines into winter type weather late October into December. At this end winter is December to end February with a slow climb from March into May towards summer. I am quite happy for a quick northerly blast in April so long as most days show some climb towards 'summer'.

Is that not balanced, along with my posting anomaly charts and commenting on what they show?

[phil nw.]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Roll on November when we can get back to our cold and snow chase! 

Seriously though it’s felt like a very long winter. All the best synoptics turned up right at the end which is a shame . Having said that  the depth of cold both in the beast and mini beast was quite exceptional for the time of year , the former in terms of windchill was probably something younger members hadn’t experienced before. 

So rare has that type of easterly been in recent years. 

 

Yes it's certainly been a longer period of cold interest than usual for sure Nick.

We had been waiting for a decent Winter easterly for sometime and hey presto-2 turn up quite late in the season and,as you commented,both quite notable too for depth of cold considering the time of year.

Meanwhile to the here and now and the UKMO shows Winter is still trying to cling on in the far north in the next few days

T96hrs

Slowly though as later frames are showing signs that some warmth at last looks to be easing northwards next weekend as those sub-tropical highs start to ridge north.

 

The UK still under some influence from the upper trough though so it looks like a more typical April showers type of weather with some warm sun in between.It will feel quite different after such a prolonged colder period.

 

[Ice Man 85]

5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I thought I had given a balanced response, yes summer June-September with gradual declines into winter type weather late October into December. At this end winter is December to end February with a slow climb from March into May towards summer. I am quite happy for a quick northerly blast in April so long as most days show some climb towards 'summer'.

Is that not balanced, along with my posting anomaly charts and commenting on what they show?

I couldn't begin to understand anomoly charts, therefore my post was mainly factored around mentions of summer weather in spring. for the nw at least, 18-20 is the average for peak july. april should be 12-13.

[Frosty.]

Ok who wants some settled weather?

The good news is the GEFS 12z mean indicates a more pleasant spell of high pressure towards mid april..hope it's right as it feels like it's been unsettled forever!??

Edited April 1, 2018 by Frosty.

[Derecho]

Swingometers updated and as people probably suspect a flip has taken place to milder solutions

 

- Chances are high of a warm southerly to end this week now
- However this warmth may not reach far northern parts
- Low pressure is never far away, lets hope it stays out west.
- The warmth may be transient. An increase in the number of mild members was apparent in previous runs though that has eased off for the time being.
- Temperatures may well get into the 20's in favoured spots though the warm air doesn't look quite so strong compared to earlier runs. Far better then the weather we have had this bank holiday though!

[Summer Sun]

ECM 12z rolling out and the good news is the warmer air remains on course to arrive by Friday

[Derecho]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM 12z rolling out and the good news is the warmer air remains on course to arrive by Friday

The T144 is fantastic if it sustained warmth you are looking for. A very slack pattern with that low to the west of Spain potentially getting stuck and bringing up more warm air.

[Bricriu]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Roll on November when we can get back to our cold and snow chase! 

Seriously though it’s felt like a very long winter. All the best synoptics turned up right at the end which is a shame . Having said that  the depth of cold both in the beast and mini beast was quite exceptional for the time of year , the former in terms of windchill was probably something younger members hadn’t experienced before. 

So rare has that type of easterly been in recent years. 

 

Yes indeed hands frozen within 15 seconds of exposure. Being confused when you stepped outside your door, and left wondering had you been transported to Siberia, or were you really still in London. Froze were the days! I hope we don't have to wait another 40 years for said type of easterly. Well i will most likely be dead by that stage):

[B87]

Average in April here is around 14-15c. February and March were both about 2c below normal, so it's time we at the very least had some average temperatures and sunshine. March was one of the cloudiest on record.