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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

GEM is also moving to the milder and more settled picture though it requires a couple of goes to get there with some rain at first

1st attempt at the milder air away from Scotland brings some rain

GEMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.4dcf4e0eadee650920f155a14d78f6b1.pngGEMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.fc51a885c6118a2fe11a33bc935925ac.png

Cooler air then spreads south as the high begins to move in

GEMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.20f5c1cb82fd66037cffb6c264f03218.pngGEMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.4bdd13441cb0893561929f4c64831a54.png

Once the high is in the air cold air moves away

GEMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.dbe99b76db2d12d0721ca3f75f32810f.png

On this dull and wet Easter Saturday, we an eggcellent chance of an improving picture from the back end of next week

:)

Indeed Gavin, an eggcellent trend which ties in with Exeter.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

What the....hey we have another Beast from the East on the Gfs 12z:shok::cold-emoji:..Beast No 3:laugh:..Oooh Matron indeed, I bet Steve's lurking:wink:

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12_288_preciptype.png

b4a1da991a5c03539e371bb60a54aa40.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
35 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What the....hey we have another Beast from the East on the Gfs 12z:shok::cold-emoji:..Beast No 3:laugh:..Oooh Matron indeed, I bet Steve's lurking:wink:

Cut out the charts to save space

2

Don't worry Karl the Op looks to have gone off on one control is mean don't support it

gens-0-1-240.thumb.png.cfd85f38210b72c069874aaa925e6ec2.pnggens-0-1-264.thumb.png.c270a648625e18c37323ebe83bf2eaff.pnggens-0-1-288.thumb.png.7046759ee4a0fe8433fe14bd48f900ab.pnggens-0-1-312.thumb.png.7b40f944e0f7a3a1abbb0cbdb97d4876.png

gens-0-0-240.thumb.png.dbe9545995b2b29ce0070d5a6dea9234.pnggens-0-0-264.thumb.png.a5db474cd792582624343e021c471b30.pnggens-0-0-288.thumb.png.9f4ac6492a603a9ff3de8e96f29ef595.pnggens-0-0-312.thumb.png.f0c5f1c8afa54c446357dbfeb67bbb0b.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Don't worry Karl the Op looks to have gone off on one for that easterly control is mean don't support it

 

 

 

I'm not worried Gav, I would be just as happy to see an early plume or warm anticyclone towards mid month..the coldie in me just liked the thought of another albeit less potent Beasterly:D

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Nice to see temps across England and Wales averaging out closer to average over the next 7 days maybe even a touch above in some isolated spots always cooler though for Scotland, NI & ROI

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.9859734959f339f4c49c8f152ca871f2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Swingometers for the 12z are interesting

image.thumb.png.d579fd42865a393ed1b2850f0ba1c096.png image.thumb.png.1dc4140f096e275d582586a2626b6187.png

A welcome retreat from cyclonic weather may be a possibility next weekend as the low pressure on quite a few members has been shunted a bit further west leaving the UK in warmer air. Not clear cut by any means though.

That high over the Med will really improve our chances of a warm April, especially if we see low pressure persisting to our south too.

Fingers crossed the GFS is onto something. Long term no obvious trend yet still.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Everything is further west at T+144 Ecm 12z compared to 00z meaning we tap into warmer southerly winds sourced from way south..T+168 is even warmer, especially across the eastern side of the uk.:)...getting warmer ??

144_mslp850.png

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192_mslp850.png

b4a1da991a5c03539e371bb60a54aa40.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Superb ECM this evening from Friday some rain at times but also the potential for things to become quite warm in the east

ECMOPEU12_120_2.thumb.png.dc4f33a5de609740857ef725d815b812.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.f550dc44e6c6eef8683669f26680a9a7.pngECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.37333634625c2dcb759bcfca6177b3e5.pngECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.a2ef41a9da1ab0c6d94994951f767065.png

giphy.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

So..The Ecm 12z brings much higher temperatures than we've been used to, it would be warm next weekend, especially further east and the run ends positively with the azores high and heights further east set to merge and bring settled weather beyond day 10 potentially!:)

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192_mslp850uk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Nice to see the map over the UK turning yellow again with temperatures getting back closer to where they should be for a good portion of the UK on the ECM 12z mean

ECMAVGEU12_144_2.thumb.png.cc90010178fe7d38d430f549627f3ce7.pngECMAVGEU12_168_2.thumb.png.fe3cc703695272272af07341e08275e2.pngECMAVGEU12_192_2.thumb.png.e2ebb5ffeec14e8994e903a66bb0c4e2.pngECMAVGEU12_216_2.thumb.png.6cef9dec587b5f78bea717423c345ce5.pngECMAVGEU12_240_2.thumb.png.5f1b3b71dd54c7625adeacc42e574ab5.png

 

:)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Summer Sun said:

Nice to see the map over the UK turning yellow again with temperatures getting back closer to where they should be for a good portion of the UK on the ECM 12z mean

ECMAVGEU12_144_2.thumb.png.cc90010178fe7d38d430f549627f3ce7.pngECMAVGEU12_168_2.thumb.png.fe3cc703695272272af07341e08275e2.pngECMAVGEU12_192_2.thumb.png.e2ebb5ffeec14e8994e903a66bb0c4e2.pngECMAVGEU12_216_2.thumb.png.6cef9dec587b5f78bea717423c345ce5.pngECMAVGEU12_240_2.thumb.png.5f1b3b71dd54c7625adeacc42e574ab5.png

 

:)

The good news for you also is tomorrows snow 'event' looks very limited now, this is my model of choice and when you only get thin slithers of pink on the PPN type charts with battlegrounds, regardless of the exact position of the pink, it usually signifies a 1000ft+ event only.

18040212_3112.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The good news for you also is tomorrows snow 'event' looks very limited now, this is my model of choice and when you only get thin slithers of pink on the PPN type charts with battlegrounds, regardless of the exact position of the pink, it usually signifies a 1000ft+ event only.

18040212_3112.gif

I'm not too sure I believe that. Most apps tell me tomorrows overnight low for me (city in the south of England) will be around 3 or 4c so there could be some wet snow more widely for a time up North. This to me looks as though it will be a now-casting event. Some people could get some surprises! :) 

Edited by Leon1
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Gavin beat me to it but yes, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean trends less unsettled and warmer from later next week as we lose the trough domination and we could well tap into some continental warmth as the earlier Ecm 12z operational showed..stronger signs of proper spring warmth emerging on the Ecm in particular today / tonight.:)

ECMAVGEU12_168_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

I'm not too sure I believe that. Most apps tell me tomorrows overnight low for me (city in the south of England) will be around 3 or 4c so there could be some wet snow more widely for a time up North. This to me looks as though it will be a now-casting event. Some people could get some surprises! :) 

The angle of the low looks all wrong to me - even in the middle of winter, I was actually surprised to see some of the snow totals being predicted by models and forecasting organisations.

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The angle of the low looks all wrong to me - even in the middle of winter, I was actually surprised to see some of the snow totals being predicted by models and forecasting organisations.

True...

But there was some surprises - like the overnight 18th - 19th snow event hitting most of the south of the U.K. (Including me!) with heavy snow and covering all roads by morning that wasn't even forecast. So who knows? Not me though because I don't know very much - I'm a newbie. Lol

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
7 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

True...

But there was some surprises - like the overnight 18th - 19th snow event hitting most of the south of the U.K. (Including me!) with heavy snow and covering all roads by morning that wasn't even forecast. So who knows? Not me though because I don't know very much - I'm a newbie. Lol

Some wet some could occur at lower levels especially in heavier bursts but milder air is moving north quite quickly so for proper settling snow you are going to need to be above about 200m

arpegeuk-1-42-0.thumb.png.879784175d3a0d6ceaa3bf16364b5ed2.pngarpegeuk-1-48-0.thumb.png.cb2a62d827ac2b2aff3baf1aa13e9319.png

arpegeuk-16-42-0.thumb.png.559982367689e40eb01716ccc93f83ed.pngarpegeuk-16-48-0.thumb.png.a4eefcb9004c04809c9a664d03327266.png

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening All , looks like a pivotal point in a turn around in our weather, later next week and into next weekend and as the potential for warming things up dramatically before turning colder from the east,  will be interesting viewing in the next few days...A difficult period yet again for forecasting :cc_confused:

h850t850eu-19.png

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ecmt850.168-1.png

ecmt850.168-2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
57 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Some wet some could occur at lower levels especially in heavier bursts but milder air is moving north quite quickly so for proper settling snow you are going to need to be above about 200m

arpegeuk-1-42-0.thumb.png.879784175d3a0d6ceaa3bf16364b5ed2.pngarpegeuk-1-48-0.thumb.png.cb2a62d827ac2b2aff3baf1aa13e9319.png

arpegeuk-16-42-0.thumb.png.559982367689e40eb01716ccc93f83ed.pngarpegeuk-16-48-0.thumb.png.a4eefcb9004c04809c9a664d03327266.png

And even at altitude it now looks like rain will quickly wash it away.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z leads to some pleasant warm settled Spring weather:

gfs-0-336.png?18

gfs-9-336.png?18

Very welcome!

Well, I move home on the 13th, so some dry weather would be welcome!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gem 00z ends very well with high pressure migrating to the east and continental warmth wafting into the uk..:)?

GEMOPEU00_216_1.png

GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

GEMOPEU00_240_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking at ECM temperatures will finally be on the rise for most as we move through next weekend and into the following week next weekend could be very warm for some in the east with 20c not out the question on Sat and Sun

ECMOPEU00_120_2.thumb.png.48a05c6b86e1178c51fe4ce52fecdd53.pngECMOPEU00_144_2.thumb.png.b107960506e8699e382cec8785b636ac.pngECMOPEU00_168_2.thumb.png.5028a3f8d547fe3772301323ae9cf5a2.pngECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.07842ff1935af3439a8f1cdacd9c8f33.pngECMOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.024bbefde53ddc0525a9962b87cb5ea0.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.2e8cf673716615673fee8fe223d2bc9d.png

GFS also moving the right direction with temps back closer to where they should be maybe even the chance of 20c in parts of the east next Saturday and Sunday as we tap into some much warmer air for a time

GFSOPEU00_126_2.thumb.png.939ce0618b846a35965a39d7b61441d5.pngGFSOPEU00_144_2.thumb.png.c18ebf87bd0bb068e7092ac815b62ee9.pngGFSOPEU00_168_2.thumb.png.9f25d635cc0be253249f29a31d02279b.pngGFSOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.fd0791e6c08287cf3d671add057e0272.pngGFSOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.b4f545aa18e6a97604bf21496e20deee.pngGFSOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.d817de5bb784dee3bad2ea3efb0e4388.png

What an eggcellent start to Easter Sunday this is

Happy days

:)

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Just had a look at the 00z London ens

Really good support for a big warm up next weekend as I said above 20c not out the question at all maybe even a touch above depending on cloud cover after next weekend the mean then remains above the long-term average

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.97fdd41780a4a0f079ccb71362e18ae0.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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