Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    A fresh model thread as we enter a new phase of weather post-beast. 

    As always please keep it to the models in here. 

    Want to view the model outputs?
    You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:

    GFS
    GEFS Ensembles
    ECMWF
    ECMWF EPS
    NetWx-SR
    NetWx-MR
    Met-Office
    Fax
    GEM
    GFS Hourly

    Snow forecast and precip type
    Model Comparison
    Global Jet Stream
    Stratosphere

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

    No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

    Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    This mornings eps firming now up on a mid atlantic upper ridge which is likely to become a marked wedge through week 2

    how that manifests itself in nw Europe will depend on the east euro upper ridge. It it establishes then a jet on a sw/ne axis will likely keep us close to or under troughing. If it doesn’t then the jet will run into se Europe and we will become prone to sliders as the wedge forces the Atlantic trough to disrupt and run se.

    The gefs playing with this evolution but not with any gusto yet. 

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Day 7 this morning we have ECM with a deep low to the south-west whilst UKMO has a deep low much further north

    ecm2.2018031100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.4cc43801ed98cff523acc53e36e4fd00.pngukm2.2018031100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ce0071e6d2dd3c31e65952b06bd55435.png

    Either way no desperately cold air in sight this morning

    ECM0-144.thumb.GIF.09e2abca2de2f73e20455b6468240fdd.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.d9a9b6bc2652b357b4088f2520d6fe6a.GIF

    :)

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Day 7 this morning we have ECM with a deep low to the south-west whilst UKMO has a deep low much further north

    ecm2.2018031100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.4cc43801ed98cff523acc53e36e4fd00.pngukm2.2018031100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ce0071e6d2dd3c31e65952b06bd55435.png

    Either way no desperately cold air in sight this morning

    ECM0-144.thumb.GIF.09e2abca2de2f73e20455b6468240fdd.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.d9a9b6bc2652b357b4088f2520d6fe6a.GIF

    :)

    Yes that's great news isn't it gavin, if you're looking for further cold, look away from the Ecm..it's probably best just to go with the flow, even if that flow happens to be southerly!:D

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    23 minutes ago, cold snap said:

    Maybe I'm looking at the charts wrong but towards the end of next week the GFS is trying to get us back to the east again but not as before.

    There is a good few options still on the table in the GEFS for mid Atlantic and HLB’s still... Spring doesn’t look like going out like a lamb! No significant warm up modeled yet.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    My take on the next 6-15 days below, after a good look at the 500 mb anomaly charts

     

    Sunday  4 march 2018 and the end of the deep cold under way

    Ec-gfs and not total agreement between them but both show troughing more in charge than blocking, no block to the e/n but still such over greenland into northern n America; ec shows more marked troughing w of uk=flow s of west into uk with gfs showing a more w’ly based trough and stronger than ec idea, air still on coldish side for both

    Noaa also shows –ve heights centred wsw of uk with contour trough just w also along with +ve heights similar area re ne n America/Greenland but no actual contour ridging. Contour heights into uk some 10-15 dm higher than last week, so less cold especially further south one is in uk

    Some suggestion of n-s split re cold/less cold, cold chiefly n’ern half Scotland I would say.

    General weather more unsettled than settled around normal T for areas away from n’ern half Scotland?

    For my area this is Mn 2-3 to Mx 7-9 early march

    The 8-14 also shows a general westerly 500 mb flow with no sign of any blocking N/S/E/W  with still some indication of -ve heights over the SW of the UK

    charts below

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Edited by johnholmes
    deleting file not uploading
    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Interesting reading the Scottish thread, still pretty snowy for many up there, here just a slushy mess, cold and raining and foggy!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    22 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Interesting reading the Scottish thread, still pretty snowy for many up there

    I suspect not for much longer, latest models show less cold / relatively milder air spreading up across all parts of the uk..

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Not liking the idea of the low tracking through the Azores stalling out across the UK as the HLB attempts to make a return; that's a recipe for a lot of rain with that nagging chance of a sudden turn to snow should the HLB become better-defined to our N/NE rather than being vague and spread out across a wide area as the models currently show (seems unrealistic?).

    Still running with the assumption that this less cold weather is an 'interlude' before the next round of lagged SSW impacts, but at this point in time it's looking quite a bit larger than I had ever imagined it would be. Whether that will actually be the case remains to be seen.

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    There's nothing of interest for coldies as such on the Gfs 6z op apart from some frosty nights here and there and a bit of wet snow, March 18th looks interesting but there is some mild weather too and overall it looks unsettled for all..the week ahead is a getting back to normal kind of week I would say!:)

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    Day 7 this morning we have ECM with a deep low to the south-west whilst UKMO has a deep low much further north

    ecm2.2018031100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.4cc43801ed98cff523acc53e36e4fd00.pngukm2.2018031100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ce0071e6d2dd3c31e65952b06bd55435.png

    Either way no desperately cold air in sight this morning

    ECM0-144.thumb.GIF.09e2abca2de2f73e20455b6468240fdd.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.d9a9b6bc2652b357b4088f2520d6fe6a.GIF

    :)

    Whilst I really wouldn't mind a warm up now, this isn't the way I'd like to see it. Such a synoptic pattern would see so much rainfall because the low runs a risk of getting stuck and has carried moisture all the way from the Azores too. Some damaging gusts as well.

    I would much prefer a March 2012 type warm up or even just an anticyclonic outlook as the increasing strength of the sun makes the outdoors more pleasant. The above charts would be anything but with lots of rain during the day and anomalous warmth restricted more towards night time minima. Not ideal at all but it has backing from many ensemble members...

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    I think the EC clusters might be sniffing out a height rise to our NE around D12

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018030400_300.

    Yes I posted that the Met were looking at that as a distinct possibility. Courtesy of Clare Nasir.

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, it's generally unsettled throughout and for most of the run it's pretty cold across most of scotland, at least the northern half but rather less cold / a little milder the further south you are but then temps rise a little nationwide beyond mid month..so, in the meantime, still potential for some sleet or snow, especially further north (mainly scotland) and on higher ground but we are all at risk of overnight frosts and icy patches at times..nothing severe like we've just had but nothing particularly springlike either..just my opinion of the 6z mean!:)

    Edited by Frosty.
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    There's a new trade surge and less MJO activity underway in the Pacific so for those wanting spring warmth to begin this may enhance the Azores High down and the line, equally it could produce zonality.

     

     

     

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

    What did we learn from the cold spell? Well the GFS isn't totally useless, cold blocks can be pushed away quickly and never trust one run on a model which shows you what you want to see.:nonono:oh and don't knock those who tell you it's going to get milder:wallbash: when they are telling you the facts. As for March, it is looking damp and cool from this morning's  model output, but I still see another surprise in store later this month, for those who like cold and snow.:good:

    Particularly agree with the highlighted part above.

    I get that people want to talk about the weather that interests them most, but it shouldn't be to the exclusion of other solutions that are being modelled.

    Some of the posts attempting some objectivity were shot down so quickly and often rudely, that the thread became a place that was a bit unpleasant to be part of at times.

    Hopefully, the site and its members have learnt something from the last couple of weeks.

    On topic, models are a bit in no mans land really, with no firm signal emerging. Looks like the SSW has left everything a bit slack as we await a firm pattern to emerge.

    For me that means, no more snow, but probably no golf in the next couple weeks :angry:

     

     

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    5 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

    Particularly agree with the highlighted part above.

    I get that people want to talk about the weather that interests them most, but it shouldn't be to the exclusion of other solutions that are being modelled.

    Some of the posts attempting some objectivity were shot down so quickly and often rudely, that the thread became a place that was a bit unpleasant to be part of at times.

    Hopefully, the site and its members have learnt something from the last couple of weeks.

    On topic, models are a bit in no mans land really, with no firm signal emerging. Looks like the SSW has left everything a bit slack as we await a firm pattern to emerge.

    For me that means, no more snow, but probably no golf in the next couple weeks :angry:

     

     

    Yes i was one of them who was shot down, it wasn't the model output discussion thread, more the, if it isn't going to stay cold then we don't want to hear it thread. It's looking pretty boring weatherwise, for the first part of March.

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ICON 12z showing some milder air in the south next Saturday but plenty of rain with it

    icon-0-144.thumb.png.3548569a38a79d94fe4f5857807a9950.pngicon-2-141.thumb.png.c0bb5d2ba50f6945bef2c1e5e9321842.pngicon-9-144.thumb.png.64ed08643d8dfdc8214dd2aa395be37d.png

    Edited by Summer Sun
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in here! 
    Other options:
    Model moans, ramps and banter
    Regional discussions

    For more focused short-range model discussion:
    Short-range Model Discussion

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...