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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just been looking through the extended GEFS 12z and there are signs that we could see another wintry blast during late march, something for coldies to hope for further ahead but plenty of crud in the meantime..I haven't given up on a wintry sting in the tail to march though!!:):cold-emoji:

Where is it coming from, north, northeast , or east:unsure2:

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3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Where is it coming from, north, northeast , or east:unsure2:

Straight from Narnia, I believe? So keep your wardrobe door shut!:D

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1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Where is it coming from, north, northeast , or east:unsure2:

Take a look:)..there are some cold blocking signals in the GEFS 12z regarding later in March which is also what exeter is continuing to hint about so perhaps those who prefer mild shouldn't get too comfy..there might be a cold shock later in the month!!:D:cold-emoji:

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Take a look:)..there are some cold blocking signals in the GEFS 12z regarding later in March which is also what exeter is continuing to hint about so perhaps those who prefer mild shouldn't get too comfy..there might be a cold shock later in the month!!:D:cold-emoji:

i love cold shots:good:thanks

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Beast 2 courtesy of FIM:

fim-0-240.png?12

I'll go and have a lie-down.

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The eps spread at days 9/10 gets the easterly closer than we have seen since it popped up as it arrives at the Low Countries. on the other hand, the mean/anomolys are really going for the broad sceuro trough days 11/15 and the way it firms up on the pattern as the run progresses makes me wonder if the eps have picked up on the next downwelling wave. 

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43 minutes ago, stodge said:

Beast 2 courtesy of FIM:

fim-0-240.png?12

I'll go and have a lie-down.

The beast is lurking to the east I see. A low chance but it's certainly possible...have to wait and see

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25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps spread at days 9/10 gets the easterly closer than we have seen since it popped up as it arrives at the Low Countries. on the other hand, the mean/anomolys are really going for the broad sceuro trough days 11/15 and the way it firms up on the pattern as the run progresses makes me wonder if the eps have picked up on the next downwelling wave. 

Does it look conducive to cold reaching us?, ie - any signal for blocking to NW and any significantly mean -ve 850hpa anoms for uk showing.

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Does it look conducive to cold reaching us?, ie - any signal for blocking to NW and any significantly mean -ve 850hpa anoms for uk showing.

Geps and eps on the same page. Eps slightly deeper on the trough. Uppers a bit lower on the eps although the geps notoriously poor on getting uppers low enough. Mean uppers at day 15 on the eps around -5c n Scotland and -3.5c s england. 

86B7061F-9A05-4FA1-9C13-11D3B0B71B0A.thumb.jpeg.13aea4a1402d6ad7629b9ea311241825.jpeg

Gives you a rough idea 

 

Edited by bluearmy
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The Gfs 18z operational hints at a colder more blocked patterrn towards the end of March with high pressure to the north / northwest so hopefully for coldies the longer term signals will continue to show encouraging signs for a cold sting in the tail to march to help us through the mild unsettled crud in the short / medium range!:) 

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No doubt we have gone from the potential of a wishy-washy northerlies good for far north I’d guess to potential for reemergence of a blocked pattern, with easterlies? I don’t think it’s a long shot as such. There is plenty of cold air to be had thanks to SSW I do think we’ll see blocking return nothing overly spectacular but it doesn’t have to be.

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ECM hellbent on height rises over Scandi, less certain is how it will affect Blighty! 

ECH1-192.GIF?09-12ECH1-216.GIF?09-12

Impressive Cold Pool as well given the time of year. :shok: can we tap into it.......... TBC

ECH0-192.GIF?09-12

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Morning all :)

Thanks for the kind word on my daily reports - I'll keep them going through the spring and then we'll see.

Flickers of interest in the output last evening but a pleasantly milder weekend for many coming albeit on the damp side.

This morning's report takes us to Monday March 19th and starts as always with ECM 00Z OP at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?09-12

A LP is filling in situ to the west of the British Isles having been more or less stationary for some days. A HP came down from Scandinavia and is now retreating ESE over the Baltic States as a new LP forms in the Norwegian Sea. A slack SE'ly flow covers the British Isles with the wettest weather in the west and often dry further east. Uppers are only just negative so possibly below average but not cold though I imagine frost at night in sheltered eastern and northern parts would remain a risk.

GEM 00Z OP at the same time:

gem-0-240.png?00

As the Scandinavian HP retreats SE, an Atlantic LP makes slow progress eastwards with frontal cloud and rain crossing the British Isles. A secondary feature in advance of the main LP looks set to enhance any wet weather for western and southern parts. The Azores HP is currently well to the south but the jet has moved back north a little. Could the LP elongate SE into Europe ? Possible but unlikely.

GFS 00Z OP at the same time:

gfs-0-240.png

Some similarities to what we've seen on the other models with the Atlantic trough struggling to make inroads into the British Isles in the face of resistant HP to the east. The jet has shifted north and a mild SW'ly covers the British Isles albeit with further cloud and rain approaching. Further into FI and the evolution gets quite messy with heights lower over Europe and attempts to build heights from the NE and later the NW.

GFS 00Z Control at T+240:

gens-0-1-240.png

Broadly similar to the OP but perhaps a shade more progressive with a deeper LP. Further into Control and it all gets quite zonal with the Azores HP moving further north but overall a changeable and unremarkable pattern.

GEFS for 00Z at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

A mixed bag as you might expect. There's support for the OP/Control evolution having LP close to or just west of the British Isles but a minority retain some form of northern blocking with a couple of quite cold members. There's little support for anything warm or settled at this time. Moving further into FI and the signal for mid-Atlantic ridging remains strong.

In summary, there seems to be a signal for an attempted incursion by a Scandinavian HP in the next week or so but that does nothing other than hold the Atlantic LP systems out to the west and lift the jet back north. By the end of next week, the Atlantic is approaching and the unsettled pattern looks set. There's little sign of meaningful cold or indeed, apart from this weekend, meaningful warmth either. After yesterday's interest, the charts have gone a bit dull this morning and there seems a strong signal to revert to a more zonal type despite events in the stratosphere. That doesn't mean we may not get a change later in the month but that change now looks at the earliest to be the weekend before Easter.

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ECM clusters show the ECM op as a clear outlier. However, it's still the development of blocking to the N or NW on some clusters which grabs my attention between D8 and D12

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018030900_192.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018030900_240.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018030900_264.

One thing seems pretty sure though - no significant height rises over Europe. Mild SWlies not likely to be on offer after the next few days!

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM clusters show the ECM op as a clear outlier. However, it's still the development of blocking to the N or NW on some clusters which grabs my attention between D8 and D12

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018030900_192.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018030900_240.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018030900_264.

One thing seems pretty sure though - no significant height rises over Europe. Mild SWlies not likely to be on offer after the next few days!

Yet the GFS seems to be moving in the opposite direction with an increasingly zonal looking outlook with a re-juvenated Atlantic and the jet kicking back north as the Azores HP builds.

I'm also truck by the resilience of the PV rumours of whose demise might have been exaggerated. I don't think it was finished off the SSW and the warmings since and hangs around until well into the month before starting to finally dissipate. This is I think pointing to a return to a more zonal evolution rather than northern blocking.

Edited by stodge

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1 minute ago, stodge said:

Yet the GFS seems to be moving in the opposite direction with an increasingly zonal looking outlook with a re-juventated Atlantic and the jet kicking back north as the Azores HP builds.

I'm also truck by the resilience of the PV rumours of whose demise might have been exaggerated. I don't think it was finished off the SSW and the warmings since and hangs around until well into the month before starting to finally dissipate. This is I think pointing to a return to a more zonal evolution rather than northern blocking.

Forgive my possible ignorance, but is this disagreement between the two models indicative of further down-welling in the upper atmosphere. I though we had similar disagreements before the last cold spell which I understood to be a symptom of the state of the atmosphere being unusual and resulting in model disagreement from model to model and run to run?

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Just now, stodge said:

Yet the GFS seems to be moving in the opposite direction with an increasingly zonal looking outlook with a re-juvenated Atlantic and the jet kicking back north as the Azores HP builds.

I'm also truck by the resilience of the PV rumours of whose demise might have been exaggerated. I don't think it was finished off the SSW and the warmings since and hangs around until well into the month before starting to finally dissipate. This is I think pointing to a return to a more zonal evolution rather than northern blocking.

The GFS is simply doing what the GFS will always do given a smidgen of a chance. Namely return to the default climatoligical position of a relatively mobile westerly flow.

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1 hour ago, stodge said:

Yet the GFS seems to be moving in the opposite direction with an increasingly zonal looking outlook with a re-juvenated Atlantic and the jet kicking back north as the Azores HP builds.

I'm also truck by the resilience of the PV rumours of whose demise might have been exaggerated. I don't think it was finished off the SSW and the warmings since and hangs around until well into the month before starting to finally dissipate. This is I think pointing to a return to a more zonal evolution rather than northern blocking.

Ensemble means fairly similar at T264 though:

gens-21-1-264.png  ec-ens_nat_mslstd_mslmean_hres-msl_20180

The light blue around Iceland, to me, suggesting a wedge of heights as a clustering, much like the ECM?

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Posted (edited)

The pest from the west will be bringing some heavy rain this weekend with the potential for 30mm in places by Sunday afternoon combined with high rivers from snowmelt this could cause a few issues. Parts of Scotland will see further snow

06_33_ukprecipacc.thumb.png.4da72881dfb936194f0ec4fbd3000023.png

On a more positive note, we will see temperatures getting to more seasonal values given some sunshine 16c could be hit in the south

06_33_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.ba71951e0e7114155c0cd0a70c928d25.png06_57_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.8103933a10aa37ab9df4d13aeffe9776.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Ensemble means fairly similar at T264 though:

gens-21-1-264.png  ec-ens_nat_mslstd_mslmean_hres-msl_20180

The light blue around Iceland, to me, suggesting a wedge of heights as a clustering, much like the ECM?

Still no strong idea whether the Scandi ridge becomes established and rules out the sceuro trough to follow or if its a transition to that feature - the Azores upper ridge seems quite strong in the medium term and would make life difficult for the ncep modelling re any split flow beyond it. Ecm will want to amplify more and ncep will want to drive the jet ne 

remember the ‘all roads lead to cold’ in mid Feb. Feels similar now but with the changing wavelengths as spring approaches, we could possibly see quite a different outcome come the last week of March. Tricky 

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