Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Derecho]

6 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Where ?

Nathan Rao 

I think it was the BBC forecast at 10? It mentioned that the ECM was preferred with a potentially of snowier weather and it was Darren Bett haha!

Edited March 23, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[bluearmy]

evidence that the eps clusters/spreads generally  offer great guidance when comparing the day 10 spread from Tuesday with the day 7 mean from today

  

[DIS1970]

25 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Nathan Rao 

I think it was the BBC forecast at 10? It mentioned that the ECM was preferred with a potentially of snowier weather and it was Darren Bett haha!

 

Edited March 23, 2018 by DIS1970

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Nathan Rao 

I think it was the BBC forecast at 10? It mentioned that the ECM was preferred with a potentially of snowier weather and it was Darren Bett haha!

Odd? The ecm 12z suirte offers virtually no snow south of the n. Midlands out to day 10! Maybe they are still working from yesterday’s runs!! 

[cold snap]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Odd? The ecm 12z suirte offers virtually no snow south of the n. Midlands out to day 10! Maybe they are still working from yesterday’s runs!! 

That was my thinking to .

 

It's out of date.

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Odd? The ecm 12z suirte offers virtually no snow south of the n. Midlands out to day 10! Maybe they are still working from yesterday’s runs!! 

Yeah it was a bit wierd, had snow falling over much of northern England in the middle of the week with temperatures around 8-10C 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yeah it was a bit wierd, had snow falling over much of northern England in the middle of the week with temperatures around 8-10C 

Could be a fair bit on the Pennines but not many sheep tune into that forecast .............

[cold snap]

GFS 18z alot colder than it's 12z

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z shows a lot of snow in the north next week and extending further south later in the Easter holiday so cold air wins!

[Frosty.]

Mild air wins at the end of the 18z but I'm more interested in next week and easter, hopefully another cold spell with snow and frosts for most of the uk!❄❄❄❄

Edited March 23, 2018 by Frosty.

[geordiekev]

As with most trilogies, the final installment is always filled with more twists and turns than a ball of belly fluff.

Unfortunately as we seem to be leaving the Twilight zone behind, it looks like we are back to business as usual with lots of nail biting ahead over the weekend. Give me a good old easterly which appears to have much smoother run ins, barring that failed one we don't discuss anymore. One thing to take away from the beauty that is the beast is that in future, we can possibly expect them to correct North and also hit earlier than expected. 

Something to remember for 2049 maybe, unless we truly are entering a Maunder-like period. One thing is for certain, I won't be moaning about them being dry and useless as long as I live. This Winter has been my most memorable possibly due to my location compared to where I lived in the eighties.

I do hope we can squeeze one last hurrah in April to take us to having 6 continuous months of snow falling. The latest 18z certainly gives everyone a chance from the GFS charts ❄⛄❄

Edited March 23, 2018 by geordiekev

[Derecho]

Interesting set of GFS ensembles. In more southern areas the cold air doesn't reach us and we are left with a rainy easter on many ensemble members. I can imagine if I did this further north there would be an increase in the number of snowy ensemble members. Some runs have a very large temperature gradient across the UK heading into the easter period.

A few runs end up developing the high to the north a bit more. The low pressure still set up to our SW, however the cold easterly hangs on for most (away from the far south) and would lead to a big fall of snow in favoured spots. It's only on a minority of ensemble members though for now (P14, 15 and 18)

However it shows that we can stay cold even if low pressure sets up to the SW, if the block to our north is strong enough.

Edited March 23, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z shows a change to much colder wintry weather across the north next week, especially scotland with rain turning to snow and an increasing risk of ice and frosts. Less cold further south but there are conflicting signals from various media with the beeb for example saying a risk of snow more widely around next midweek followed by wintry showers and cold for all..time will tell!

[JamesL]

If we look across the main 0z suites, then we could say that the colder weather has gained a little momentum today (except gfs) and shows sub -5 air straddled across the UK right out pretty much to day 10 

Next week is certainly going to throw up some wintry surprises for some in the UK 

Do not write winter off just yet. This has certainly got the potential to upgrade and nothing is set in stone yet. 

I think tomorrow's 12z will throw a little more light on a likely outcome 

[The PIT]

Next Wednesday is looking like t shirt weather on Tuesday just below mid teens. Then rather cold Wednesday. The place to be is Scotland if you're looking for white stuff. Pity about that low that scuppers things it just needs a push south or further east.

[Frosty.]

The models are really struggling at the moment which is making it very hard for forecasters to predict next week with any confidence but the picture should become clearer in the next few days, however, the Ecm 00z shows yet another wintry spell on the way..for the north but don't be surprised if the reality next week is colder for all with a risk of snow, ice and frosts!⛄⛄ ❄❄❄❄❄ ..

 

[bluearmy]

Curve ball from the ukmo this morning but it’s day 5/6 output hasn’t been great last couple weeks 

the rest of the modelling trying to find its way out of the same sack and struggling big time. 

still poor guidance on offer but taking the eps as a reference point, snow chances south of the n midlands aren’t good. And north of there looks quite reliant on elevation. 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO now goes to Good Friday the coldest air remains east of most of the UK though it does clip NE Scotland some snow to lower levels in Scotland and maybe higher ground in northern England

UKMO t168 for the Saturday over Easter remains quite unsettled for snow it impossible to predict without seeing the 850's as we just don't know how cold or not the air would be

[MR EXTREMES]

The most likely outcome would be that heights into Mediterranean into Spain and south of France keeps low pressure to our southwest.

but the far north and Eastern Scotland could continue chilly with snow at times over Easter but much more marginal this time round.

As for the rest of the uk it's looking unsettled not really to cold but slightly below average.

Unless we get the Azores ridge in then warm start to April unlikely.

If the euro slug returns then warmth could feature.

Although background signals don't really favour euro slug, but form horse has block in the Atlantic but this quickly moves into east coast of the united states.

Over all very messy pattern.

[Summer Sun]

6 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

getting a little better then

Depends if you compare UKMO to ECM at t144 UKMO doesn't have the cold air as far west as ECM does

[feb1991blizzard]

Icon 6z a big improvement on its 0z with better trough disruption - a cleaner separation.

[Leon1]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Icon 6z a big improvement on its 0z with better trough disruption - a cleaner separation.

 you mean this one? -10 across the country

[feb1991blizzard]

Deleted.

 

Edited March 24, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

 you mean this one? -10 across the country

This

Compared to

[bluearmy]

ICON 06z is a step towards the ukmo at day 6 with its wedge/ridge to our ne 

I doubt gfs 06z is going to head that way as it will probably continue to struggle re separation of the lows.