Jump to content
Paul

Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here! 
Other options:
Model moans, ramps and banter
Regional discussions

For more focused short-range model discussion:
Short-range Model Discussion

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

image.thumb.png.82784f39a7262814d5b773f2994c19fa.png

Well the swing to an easterly continues, do we get another potentially snowy spell, or will low pressure meander around the UK keeping it away? At the moment you have to say an easterly is the favourite yet again!

An easterly is never the favourite QS!

eps extended remain the same theme 

quite interested to see if any clusters are w euro ridgy at all. Is there any hope for gavin ?? 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not as severe as last nights run by the looks of it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ludicrous. -12 uppers in the first week of April? 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS 6z after day 9 for most of England and Scotland  is amazing . Ireland is not so good for cold . 

IMG_2009.PNG

IMG_2010.PNG

IMG_2011.PNG

IMG_2012.PNG

IMG_2013.PNG

IMG_2014.PNG

IMG_2015.PNG

IMG_2016.PNG

IMG_2017.PNG

IMG_2018.PNG

IMG_2019.PNG

IMG_2020.PNG

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKMO extended has us in a northwesterly by mid next week

ukm2.2018032800_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.0f80e2c18ec4edcc0416b4b060d3b27e.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 06z is a bit slower in taking the coldest air south during Good Friday than the 00z

06z                                                                   00z

gfs-1-222.thumb.png.fd3debd747348c55f413ba42ee9b558b.pnggfs-1-228.thumb.png.37302d6ff856f6db1b6735a9aafaa0db.png

This results in temps around 5c to 6c higher for some parts Midlands south

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.e445ede30fabf0328a3800250a1f5415.pngukmaxtemp1.thumb.png.09dea792884d7989f12545eeb4bfad76.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

What are the chances of the 12z chart looking like the 06z chart after 300hrs?

Edited by DIS1970

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, DIS1970 said:

What are the chances of the 12z chart looking like the 06z charts after 300hrs?

Relatively slim I'd imagine, but who knows..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember winters where we got uber excited with uppers of -5c .................

 

  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.939d44214f433d52790a8d77fb2b13ea.png

Still looking as though pressure will build to our north, though getting that low to clear and allow the cold to come in from Scandinavia is proving a bit tricky with the 06z ens. Hence a few runs keep us in less cold air.

Lots of uncertainty, though the 06z generally seems to produce more progressive output then the rest in recent times.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS 06z is a bit slower in taking the coldest air south during Good Friday than the 00z

06z                                                                   00z

gfs-1-222.thumb.png.fd3debd747348c55f413ba42ee9b558b.pnggfs-1-228.thumb.png.37302d6ff856f6db1b6735a9aafaa0db.png

This results in temps around 5c to 6c higher for some parts Midlands south

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.e445ede30fabf0328a3800250a1f5415.pngukmaxtemp1.thumb.png.09dea792884d7989f12545eeb4bfad76.png

Yep true SS..

 But the cold it introduces afterwards is really amazing for April.

I can see quite a few cold records come to pass if it happens as per the GFS.

Rather more worryingly is that the ECM seems to be trending towards it now.

The GFS has picked up on each of the beasts fairly accurately for the last 2 occasions at its long range.(I agree it does tend to drift a little later on).

Third time lucky?  Can it really be correct again?

MIA  

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 06z mean hasn't changed much from the 00z

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.2e2f70497fde05dba7cb96789ced30a3.png

The snow row on the 00z peaked at 10 - 06z it peaks at 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

The GFS 6z after day 9 for most of England and Scotland  is amazing . Ireland is not so good for cold . 

IMG_2009.PNG

IMG_2010.PNG

IMG_2011.PNG

IMG_2012.PNG

IMG_2013.PNG

IMG_2014.PNG

IMG_2015.PNG

IMG_2016.PNG

IMG_2017.PNG

IMG_2018.PNG

IMG_2019.PNG

IMG_2020.PNG

Thank God

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Afternoon all :)

Though milder again today, plenty of attention turning toward Easter and the possibility of another blast of cold air from points east so will we looking at a White Easter, a Wet Easter or a Warm Easter or some combination thereof ?

Looking ahead to Easter Saturday, March 31st, and starting as always with the ECM 00Z OP at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?21-12

After a short milder spell this week, the descent to cooler and then colder unsettled conditions is pretty steady and by T+240 there's a slack NE'ly airflow between LP over northern France and heights to the NW of Scotland. Uninspiring at best with -8 uppers covering much of the British Isles so cold rain for many but wintry conditions to higher ground likely.

GEM 00Z OP at the same time:

gem-0-240.png?00

More of an Easterly on this chart as the LP sinks south over southern England and into France with pressure building to both NW and NE. This actually keeps milder air over southern areas while cold air is already into the north. Rain or showers for many with the heaviest rain for southern and south western parts and plenty of haar for the east coasts of England and Scotland.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png

Another cool or cold chart which GFS has produced consistently for some runs. LP over northern France and heights to the NW keep a NE'ly flow over the British Isles with -12 uppers approaching the east coast so we can safely assume cold and likely to be wet for southern and eastern p[arts though perhaps drier weather moving into the far north-west of Scotland by this time. Further into FI and while there's a brief attempt at milder conditions, the Greenland HP maintains a strong ridge SE and that sends Atlantic features into Europe and means northerly winds and colder air are never far away.

GFS 06Z OP at T+234:

gfs-0-234.png?6

Spot the difference though this run makes more of heights over Scandinavia. This evolves further into FI into a major block but, as is often the case with GFS, it's all very transient and the block breaks down but not without leaving residual heights over the British Isles.

GFS 06Z Control at T+240:

gens-0-1-240.png

Plenty of cold air over Scandinavia flooding south and south west over the British Isles in a slack N'ly at this time. Further into FI heights build over Scandinavia before migrating SW over the British Isles and ending up close to the OP.

The GEFS at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

The Mean puts the LP more or less on top of the British Isles but represents a split between two clusters - one has LP to the east and south, the other has LP to the north and west and I suppose it's all about timing and whether the trough has disrupted to the south and south east by this point.

In summary, winter rules today on the models. Little or no sign of spring warmth if I'm being honest and plenty of N or NE'ly flows bringing cold air from Scandinavia and the Arctic over the British Isles. The timing of the process is still open to question and GEM offers a slower evolution but the strength of the path and the general agreement looks solid for a transition around the end of the month to something much colder and unsettled. Far too early to be talking about specific snow for specific areas but the likelihood of snow for higher ground looks very high at this time. Lower ground may yet see cold rain rather than any snow but if the likes of -8 uppers are about snow for all looks likely albeit transient in nature. Getting snow to stick at low ground for a period of time in early April takes some doing - snow for high ground in April much less unusual and still likely to linger even with the passage of the year.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Purga said:

Maybe but judging by the latest extended METO text forecast it looks like cold all the way until mid April at the very least & then only a slim chance of something slightly 'less cold'.

It's interesting that earlier / middle part of the winter it seemed that there was a 'predisposition' to bring cold weather patterns from the NW and sliding LP systems across the UK for an extended period. Maybe we have entered a phase when there is a similar 'predisposition' to bring very cold shots to us from the N / NE / E

Exactly what the drivers are and which ones predominate (SSW etc?) I'll leave to the experts in other threads.

Suffice it to say, I'm enjoying this fascinating cold phase - just hope it re-emerges around about mid November for - say - 4/5 months. :yahoo:

It would be good to hear the experts thoughts on these repeating patterns like the NW and sliding LP systems across the UK for an extended period like you pointed out and now repeating Easterly patterns with scandy Highs keep reappearing and now possibly for a 3rd time in as many weeks...  it can't just be coincidence!!! Just what are the drivers??? SSW but what El's.. .

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS continues to be an outliner with unrealistic outputs with cold uppers down to -15, absolutely impossible and nothing to expect since ECMWF continues to show mild westerlies and no sign of " east from the beast". GEM is something in between

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ICON 12z has pressure a bit higher over France compared to the 00z thus slowing down the arrival of the colder air a bit

12z

icon-0-153.thumb.png.1b117368d5ee62f1b8ee30970bb9b097.pngicon-1-153.thumb.png.6c17fea7d8fadad84a23326623a84568.png

00z

icon-0-165.thumb.png.f78652b8cad6ee23099a908cedf2aa9e.pngicon-1-165.thumb.png.7447799a7aeb9e16abcd722eaab13eb0.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Similar Content

    • By Paul
      A busy spell coming up, as the beast from the east arrives.
      As the focus of the model thread is often a bit further ahead, for those wanting to talk more exclusively about the shorter term outputs, we do have a short-range thread up and running. (You're still welcome to discuss the shorter term in here too though).
      This thread is all about discussing the models - but we have loads of other options for other topics:
      As always, please keep it to the models in here, and head over to the banter thread for any moans, ramps and general chat.
      For threads related to the cold spell, met office forecasts, the winter overall and much more on top, please take a look at the general weather forum:
      https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/1-winter-and-general-weather-discussion/
      And finally, if you're wanting to chat about your local weather, the risk of snow in your particular location etc, then the regional threads are for you:
      https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Snow forecast and precip type
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By Paul
      Ooh yes, it's busy and with good reason - it's a rare beast to see the sort of charts we're seeing right now. It would appear the UK and much of Europe is headed into the freezer, but how cold, and for how long?
      As always, please keep to just discussing the model output in this thread.
      We have a thread open to discuss the cold spell - so if you're wanting to chat more generally about it, or talk about forecasts from the BBC, Met Office, Netweather etc, please head over there:
      https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/
      It's also worth keeping an eye on is the blogs from our team including @Jo Farrow & @Nick Finnis, there's some great info about the SSW, the cold spell etc, and new articles will be posted regularly:
      https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/blogs
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Snow forecast and precip type
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By Paul
      The much talked about SSW has taken place, but as Nick blogged about a few days ago, it doesn't always mean cold for the UK. The signs are good though (if you like cold that is), and the model output is showing a lot of northern blocking currently. It's set to be a really interesting time to follow the models if nothing else, so please carry on the discussion here. 
      As ever, please keep it to model discussion only in this thread.....
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Snow forecast and precip type
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×