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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

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18 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

GFS has been very poor. Stick with the euros for now.

I though the GFS has done ok in the last few weeks leading up to the cold spells ?? Let's be honest tho they all have there moments . Even the UKMO has had wobbles in the last few weeks . The GFS 18z has it nailed for #Beast 3 but that's only because it shows cold and snow 😉

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4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

image.thumb.png.5f6763139b8237a7bc1c4a8e15d7a432.png

A very interesting set of ensembles, key points:

1) The high to our north is set to become more influential early next week with cold pooling over Scandinavia
2) Support is growing for another cold easterly. The control in addition to the OP shows a cold easterly
3) There is a risk that low pressure could just get stuck meaning the UK doesn't see any cold air
4) However given the ensembles were slow to catch up last time we had an easterly, I get the feeling something is afoot....

Yes they were slow at catching on on Beast 2 . Even the ECM eps . The op runs started to show it around the 7day mark and the ensembles caught up a few days later 🙂. Will it happen again ??? 

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Latest GFS Operational for March 30th 2018 vs December 2nd 2010 - that low to the south looks rather interesting!

1_02-02-18.thumb.png.6b7b8e24110fa373275c010a6801aa8e.png1_02-02-10.thumb.png.c9d61ed50b8892fd26069b9f9c0bda04.png

2_02-02-18.thumb.png.d3671f924b480973afe31a1df9a55d29.png2_02-02-10.thumb.png.8e51691931c766cf2d9f6915ddccdca2.png

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18z op is quite a bit colder than the mean and control for a time 

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.fc71f3ca73a7d9737d2735b205660367.png

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Feb2009London said:

Latest GFS Operational for March 30th 2018 vs December 2nd 2010 - that low to the south looks rather interesting!

1_02-02-18.thumb.png.6b7b8e24110fa373275c010a6801aa8e.png1_02-02-10.thumb.png.c9d61ed50b8892fd26069b9f9c0bda04.png

2_02-02-18.thumb.png.d3671f924b480973afe31a1df9a55d29.png2_02-02-10.thumb.png.8e51691931c766cf2d9f6915ddccdca2.png

Amazing how much colder the chart for the end of March is, I thought they were the wrong way round! 

Edited by RAIN RAIN RAIN
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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Feb2009London said:

Latest GFS Operational for March 30th 2018 vs December 2nd 2010 - that low to the south looks rather interesting!

1_02-02-18.thumb.png.6b7b8e24110fa373275c010a6801aa8e.png1_02-02-10.thumb.png.c9d61ed50b8892fd26069b9f9c0bda04.png

2_02-02-18.thumb.png.d3671f924b480973afe31a1df9a55d29.png2_02-02-10.thumb.png.8e51691931c766cf2d9f6915ddccdca2.png

P10 offers to break the deadlock one thing not achieved widespread snow in SE and south. I find the more marginal set ups more thrilling very tricky to forecast but reward can be high. I actually see a snow event such as this as very plausible. 

E7981D5B-9B7F-4A2B-8781-9AA80C5B1915.thumb.png.8f91d6caa888a7f3e08383e912033842.pngCFA548E0-3C15-4727-AB94-E322E86FC04D.thumb.png.1696adf13812562608a12293a2bd37ef.png

Edited by Daniel*
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33 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

Amazing how much colder the chart for the end of March is, I thought they were the wrong way round! 

Late on 1/12/10 that low started as a trough, moved north, developed into a low as it did so and stalled over the south of england during the early hours of 2/12 - and delivered a foot [give or take] of snow by dawn. 

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Amazing run from GFS , widespread snow 

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ECM coming on board 192. another one of those ECM big step jumps towards GFS - not there yet but.

ECH1-192_ibe6.GIF

 

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6 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes they were slow at catching on on Beast 2 . Even the ECM eps . The op runs started to show it around the 7day mark and the ensembles caught up a few days later 🙂. Will it happen again ??? 

were they slow?  Ec op had a go at day 10 to get the pv chunk under a scandi ridge which we all thought was nuts. it picked it up again three or four runs later and didn’t drop it save for one well dodgy op six days before? 

I didn’t think gfs was so far behind but more erratic. ICON was best.

I’m not buying that gfs 18z suite but the 00z models seem to be honing on on an agreed solution which is a watered down  less progressive version of it. 

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

were they slow?  Ec op had a go at day 10 to get the pv chunk under a scandi ridge which we all thought was nuts. it picked it up again three or four runs later and didn’t drop it save for one well dodgy op six days before? 

I didn’t think gfs was so far behind but more erratic. ICON was best.

I’m not buying that gfs 18z suite but the 00z models seem to be honing on on an agreed solution which is a watered down  less progressive version of it. 

WOW - was the 18z GEFS ensemble suite actually better than the 0z then - didn't see it - the 0z looks a stonker.

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It’s clear that Easter barbecue’s are off the agenda this year

could see a second wave of cold for Easter mon/Tuesday behind a dropping low which would be a pretty snowy feature over northern hills and could well run a track which brings more of the country into play. 

Gavin’s Azores ridge next week looks to have been cancelled, along with the rest of March springtime...........

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Quite remarkable Synoptics showing up this March. Especially given the fact that many have decent cold to tap into. 

How often in the past have we seen great charts but lacking in cold to tap into. It seems the cold over the pole keeps draining south and west. 

Is this still all to do with the second wave of SSW? 

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6 minutes ago, JamesL said:

Quite remarkable Synoptics showing up this March. Especially given the fact that many have decent cold to tap into. 

How often in the past have we seen great charts but lacking in cold to tap into. It seems the cold over the pole keeps draining south and west. 

Is this still all to do with the second wave of SSW

Some would say not but we all know the truth ...... it’s several downwelling waves by the time we see the Easter one (wherever it hits)

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Posted (edited)

Last night the Op was on the cold side of the mean towards the end of the month and into April now the control has joined in

The mean does look marginally higher around Easter take April 1st last night it was -5 this morning it is around -3

00z

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.a6aa807ab90402e6eb6d9c0ca33a48fb.png

18z

gefsens850London0.png.e4626f1e2703a9432d0a9d38de5f92f9.thumb.png.26631df189dd5d66412f029d5f66b114.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Last night the Op was on the cold side of the mean towards the end of the month and into April now the control has joined in

The mean does look marginally higher around Easter take April 1st last night it was -5 this morning it is around -3

00z

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.a6aa807ab90402e6eb6d9c0ca33a48fb.png

18z

gefsens850London0.png.e4626f1e2703a9432d0a9d38de5f92f9.thumb.png.26631df189dd5d66412f029d5f66b114.png

 

The op and control are the most important runs though by far - probably the mean doesn't count for much here. I think we need to wait to after easter to look for proper warm now.

Edited by PeterH

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EPS mean backing the op - another step in the right direction.

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Last night the Op was on the cold side of the mean towards the end of the month and into April now the control has joined in

The mean does look marginally higher around Easter take April 1st last night it was -5 this morning it is around -3

00z

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.a6aa807ab90402e6eb6d9c0ca33a48fb.png

18z

gefsens850London0.png.e4626f1e2703a9432d0a9d38de5f92f9.thumb.png.26631df189dd5d66412f029d5f66b114.png

 

Surprised you didn't comment about Ensemble member 15 around Easter......

gens-15-0-240.pnggens-15-1-240.png

Probably generate a few storms

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Yet another cracking run from GFS 06z

image.thumb.png.dd7bb194172fe453932003b5dec53990.pngimage.thumb.png.b43813406ddcb6f3c5cd619837882ce5.pngimage.thumb.png.6cd19551fdaef0362ce234cb8206dadd.pngimage.thumb.png.15258c087c6f02e8da7ce83d3bcb3da2.pngimage.thumb.png.a7d1883b10bb8f2b76d278e60bfc61a8.png

Nothing 'marginal' there!

Never mind Gavin (SS) summer will come eventually.....

image.thumb.png.be78db205f80a5565c54b386d88a5f18.png

:laugh:

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9 minutes ago, Purga said:

Yet another cracking run from GFS 06z

image.thumb.png.dd7bb194172fe453932003b5dec53990.pngimage.thumb.png.b43813406ddcb6f3c5cd619837882ce5.pngimage.thumb.png.6cd19551fdaef0362ce234cb8206dadd.pngimage.thumb.png.15258c087c6f02e8da7ce83d3bcb3da2.pngimage.thumb.png.a7d1883b10bb8f2b76d278e60bfc61a8.png

Nothing 'marginal' there!

Never mind Gavin (SS) summer will come eventually.....

image.thumb.png.be78db205f80a5565c54b386d88a5f18.png

:laugh:

 

Unless my eye deceive me that is the 00z :wink:

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14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Unless my eye deceive me that is the 00z :wink:

Yes - typo SS :oops::D

Still.....:D

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image.thumb.png.82784f39a7262814d5b773f2994c19fa.png

Well the swing to an easterly continues, do we get another potentially snowy spell, or will low pressure meander around the UK keeping it away? At the moment you have to say an easterly is the favourite yet again!

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