Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[MR EXTREMES]

Was it 2008 April we had Arctic blast and we had snow laying on the ground.

So there must be other events similar.

I bet they were mostly in solar minimums as well.

Watch ECM tonight,

the models do seem to be handling these events pretty well.

[Derecho]

Well first swing in quite a while as the 12z ensembles are more bullish on developing that high to our north. The cold air interacts with an incoming low on a lot of ensemble members to move energy east and leave us exposed to a northerly earlier, with good blocking to the NW. 

No beasts as a result of the high to our north early next week although a few runs do bring the colder uppers from Scandinavia across in some form.

[Had Worse]

8 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Was it 2008 April we had Arctic blast and we had snow laying on the ground.

So there must be other events similar.

I bet they were mostly in solar minimums as well.

Watch ECM tonight,

the models do seem to be handling these events pretty well.

April 4th  2012 provided a good dumping of snow where I live, with blizzards. 

Anyone got the charts for that time?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

April 4th  2012 provided a good dumping of snow where I live, with blizzards. 

Anyone got the charts for that time?

[Cloud 10]

12z GEFS pretty solid for an Easter cold spell.

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Wow, could we be heading for our 3rd potent cold snap at Easter ? Snow probability continuing to increase for around Good Friday ❄️❄️❄️❄️⛄️

[Cheese Rice]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wouldn't actually want the deep fetch proper beast again as showers wont settle as much, UNLESS 1 of 2 things happen, either its a -15c to -17c which is unheard of in April, or some sort of shortwave feature develops actually in the flow itself. To me this chart here is the perfect setup, slack flow giving us another edge - evaporative cooling maybe worth a degree or so in itself, we  want a slack flow with continuous heavy snowfall with big flakes.

 

There are higher lapse rates in Spring plus solar activity will beef up the showers so snow is more likely, especially with troughs forming in the flow that have a better chance of making inroads with a stronger sun.

You'd be surprised by what can be achieved in sub -5 airflow in Spring. Ofc you can't expect winter weather but April 2008 in London is a good example. 

Edited March 20, 2018 by Cheese Rice

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

GFS very close to beast mark 3 - have we gone through the wardrobe into Narnia? Or has Queen Elsa put an eternal spell on the UK? (you need young kids to get the last one!)

  

Actually, you don't get to Narnia through a wardrobe.  Not any more.  It's been located.  This week. Not far from where I live. In Didcot:

This sign actually exists, along with some other ones:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-43459598

Edited March 20, 2018 by Mike Poole

[coram]

54 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Was it 2008 April we had Arctic blast and we had snow laying on the ground.

So there must be other events similar.

I bet they were mostly in solar minimums as well.

Watch ECM tonight,

the models do seem to be handling these events pretty well.

Yes, it was April 2008. Had a good 4-5 inches down here. That was the year that it also snowed down south in October.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean indicates a potentially wintry spell developing during Easter week and flicking through the perturbations, there are some stunning ones for coldies / snow lovers..a 3rd very wintry spell through late march / early april is possible!⛄⛄⛄⛄

[bluearmy]

its about time the polar field for day 4/6 was pinned down. see if we can get broad agreement at day 6 when ecm produces in a  few minutes

Edited March 20, 2018 by bluearmy

[cobbett]

28 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Wow, could we be heading for our 3rd potent cold snap at Easter ? Snow probability continuing to increase for around Good Friday ❄️❄️❄️❄️⛄️

Wow - mean uppers around -5 from the 29th onwards !

[bluearmy]

23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

its about time the polar field for day 4/6 was pinned down. see if we can get broad agreement at day 6 when ecm produces in a  few minutes

Better agreement that the Asian vortex will align towards scandi (as the ens have been hinting)rather than Canada, with a split of sorts. ec is better for this evolution with a pretty decent polar split by day 6/7. it wouldn't take a lot from day 7 for @Steve Murr to reappear ...............

ec op looks to be thinking about phasing across around e Greenland by day 8. big frame upcoming ..........

EDIT: interesting but inconclusive...... potential (shame it isn't spring potential but failing that we may as well go for it again!)

Edited March 20, 2018 by bluearmy

[chris55]

I have heard much regarding #beast three on the radio/papers today and just thought to myself 'not going to happen' ............ this media lot are over playing it.

However after viewing tonight's GFS I'm kind of doubting my resolve. Can we really be looking down the barrel of yet another proper cold incursion??

Easter day did catch my eye regarding snowfall for some lowand parts of the UK

perhaps a white Easter is not such long shot!

if we do end up with more lowland snowfall into April then this spell induced by the major SSW will ceratinly go down in the record books with even more extraordinary stats than we have experienced thus far.

amazeballs!

[bluearmy]

Looking back at the 00z ec clusters, anyone want to guess where that deep upper low on ec op will end up at day 10?

Edited March 20, 2018 by bluearmy

[Frosty.]

Fascinating Ecm 12z later in the run with very cold air lurking not far to the E / NE and trough disruption taking place..

Ps..I'm sure steve murr is lurking too

Edited March 20, 2018 by Frosty.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

9 minutes ago, chris55 said:

I have heard much regarding #beast three on the radio/papers today and just thought to myself 'not going to happen' ............ this media lot are over playing it.

However after viewing tonight's GFS I'm kind of doubting my resolve. Can we really be looking down the barrel of yet another proper cold incursion??

Easter day did catch my eye regarding snowfall for some lowand parts of the UK

perhaps a white Easter is not such long shot!

if we do end up with more lowland snowfall into April then this spell induced by the major SSW will ceratinly go down in the record books with even more extraordinary stats than we have experienced thus far.

amazeballs!

Just a pop in from me and this catches my eye.  I believe Spring will be well on hold ‘generally’ and early April towards mid April could be way way below normal.   ECM and GFS 12z.....worth keeping an eye on.....

further attacks from N to E quadrant?  ?

 

BFTP

Edited March 20, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[feb1991blizzard]

56 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

There are higher lapse rates in Spring plus solar activity will beef up the showers so snow is more likely, especially with troughs forming in the flow that have a better chance of making inroads with a stronger sun.

You'd be surprised by what can be achieved in sub -5 airflow in Spring. Ofc you can't expect winter weather but April 2008 in London is a good example. 

Oh I agree, I'm not one of those 'weather flicks a switch on March 1st so lets suddenly change our weather preferences from one extreme to the other' merchants, but I would like more continuous snowfall,  I like the GFS solution and feel that is capable of delivering low level snow, ECM not a million miles away from delivering but that huge trough just sticking to the west isn't helping things.

[JBMWeatherForever]

The GFS has been continually showing this Easter cold spell, and it looks increasingly possible from the other models today aswell !  All things do seem to come in three's. A potent northeasterly very much a possibility now. What a great month we have had for coldies with March now looking like it will finish very cold and early April continuing the same way.       

[nick sussex]

Anything could happen past day 6 .

If there’s more trough disruption at that point then the cold air to the ne could make a quicker return .

 

[Mike Poole]

I think there is a very good chance this Easter Beast #3 blast will happen and may well impact the whole country, not just the north.  I know people say won't happen, time of year, into April etc. but that is to fail to take into account what has ACTUALLY happened over the last month.  We are now well away from average synoptics for the time of year.  Fact.  

GFS 12z at T234:

The GFS has been like a dog with a bone on recent runs with this cold outbreak around Easter.  I think it's on to something and the primary reason is this:  North Sea temperatures:

The margin of error for getting cold air from a NE direction to the UK is reduced with such impressively cold sea temperatures.  I'm surprised to see 3C near our shores.  Combine that with the greater likelihood of E and N winds into Spring, I think another cold shot can't be ruled out for any part of the country.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended shows a wet day UK wide

[cold snap]

27 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Anything could happen past day 6 .

If there’s more trough disruption at that point then the cold air to the ne could make a quicker return .

 

Nick can you please let me know what you mean by Anything ?

[Mike Poole]

The ECM mean seems to have support for the cold blast at T240, clusters will be needed to firm this up, but here's the charts:

As a mean, I would expect many individual perturbations will favour the NE flow. 850 temps on the mean at T240:

I'm still betting on Beast #3.

I have to say that personally, I'm 50/50 re the cold evolution and a big warm up. But the weather will do what it will do, if the cold spell does happen I envisage a very sudden warm up in the end.

Edited March 20, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Was it 2008 April we had Arctic blast and we had snow laying on the ground.

So there must be other events similar.

I bet they were mostly in solar minimums as well.

Watch ECM tonight,

the models do seem to be handling these events pretty well.

Apologies that this is off topic, but I'm unsure how to quote someone in a different thread.

Anyway, there have been a few April snowy spells in recent years. There was of course April 2008, and as someone has already mentioned April 2012. The final weeks of both April 2016 and April 2017 saw snow for some, too, more so in 2016.