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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS is showing several marginal (but perhaps very heavy) snow events across central UK in the mid range. The ironic thing is that these have the potential to put down more disruptive, albeit brief, snow accumulations for some parts than the E'ly just gone.

GFS has been doing that this for a while now, even the Met Office written outlook say there’s a chance of snow in central and southern areas amongst the primary rain and wind. It’s quite probable we’ll see an event.

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image.thumb.png.cfcbd0e2211c536a755216ad98baf8e5.png

18z ensemble swingometer updated. Not much change from previous runs but a few things to note:

- The runs which have the storm crossing the UK brings some really strong gales. A nasty storm with lots of rain
- There is a subtle nod towards stronger heights developing just to the south of Greenland. Could explain why the orange line has risen a little.
- Although pressure rises to the south of the storm its not really enough to put us in a zonal pattern
- Quite a lot of the runs have cold air returning to the UK in the wake of the storm.

Don't be surprised if the orange line continues ticking upwards at the expense of the blue...

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snow for my location on the 16th?

prectypeuktopo-12.thumb.png.9f77ec3165c423e5cab90822f7e208f7.png

could happen, but so could a sharknado.

even chance of either i think...

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UKMO extended has a deep low to our east at t168

ukm2.2018031200_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ec6e0b69eaadb0ac02b24b6333b0b629.png

ECM at the same time

ecm2.2018031200_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.829ea4f2bc5217e5982f4b3ccf5e3089.png

 

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36 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has a deep low to our east at t168

ukm2.2018031200_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ec6e0b69eaadb0ac02b24b6333b0b629.png

ECM at the same time

ecm2.2018031200_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.829ea4f2bc5217e5982f4b3ccf5e3089.png

 

Surely if the jet remains far to our south, there will be less of a north-west trajectory to this low. It could therefore produce more white than the models currently predict. 

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Morning all :)

As the recent cold spell fades into history or romanticised nostalgia, thoughts are turning among some on here to spring and a yearning for the first 20c day. Unfortunately, the weather isn't like a light switch and as I noted last week, the model output wasn't showing a quick path to spring-like temperatures as the battle between colder and warmer air-masses continues and with both the jet well to the south and cold air not that far away to the north and north-east, will there be more twists and turns to come this month ?

This morning's mid-range analysis takes us to Thursday March 15th and starts as always with the ECM 00z OP at that time:

ECM1-240.GIF?05-12

An unsettled outlook. One LP has crossed the British Isles filling from SW to NE and is over Denmark but a new LP is in the southwest approaches with the main LP close to Iceland. A mild SSE'ly covers the British Isles in advance of frontal systems bringing rain slowly from the south west. Residual heights remain over Scandinavia.

GEM 00Z OP at the same time:

gem-0-240.png?00

A shallow trough covers the British isles and extends from Scandinavia back into the Atlantic with the jet running to the south. LP centred in the North Sea is drawing in a slack but cold N'ly flow over the British Isles. A secondary shallow LP is approaching from the SW but might only affect southernmost counties and the Channel Islands. Pressure remains high over Greenland with a weak ridge SE.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png

The first LP crossed the country from SW to NE over the weekend and is in the Norwegian Sea but a new area of LP is approaching and deepening from the SW and is to the south of Cornwall with strong winds on its western flank. Any drier periods in central areas will be erased by rain moving from the south and south west. The eye is drawn to a developing but weak mid-Atlantic ridge. However, further into FI it gets squeezed out and the jet seems to buckle back north as the Azores HP becomes more influential.

GFS 06Z OP at T+234:

gfs-0-234.png?6

The evolution is different with the Azores HP much more pronounced and ridging north as the LP moves away to the NNE. A light NW'ly airflow covers the British Isles at this time. Further into FI and a much more zonal evolution develops with the classic sine wave of ridges and troughs.

GFS 00Z Control at T+240:

gens-0-1-240.png

A much colder evolution with a NE'ly flow over the British Isles and a more significant mid-Atlantic ridge than on the OP. Further into FI, the cold snap doesn't last but the jet remains well to the south allowing LP to cross the British Isles keeping the weather unsettled with temperatures often below average.

GFS 06Z Control at T+240:

gens-0-1-240.png

The 06 GEFS at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

Plenty of colder options in there to my eye. The exact position and orientation of the LP varies greatly but the possibility of a more N'ly airflow can't be excluded. I don't se much sign of settled HP at this time.

To conclude, little has changed since last week. The extreme cold has gone but the transition to what many would regard as spring-like conditions is going to be very slow. Indeed, the immediate future looks very unsettled with plenty of rain in the coming weekend as a vigorous system moves up from the SW and a repeat performance next week is on the cards from GFS next week. Other models keep the trough over the British Isles so with an unsettled and often cold theme especially in the north.

GFS further into FI tries to bring the jet back north allowing the warmer air-mass to encroach but there is also a signal for renewed Scandinavian blocking. At the moment this is all speculation - I can't see a ready route to spring warmth and indeed rain (and plenty of it) will be the theme for the next week to ten days.

 

 

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image.thumb.png.09cb525a12a75240ac0c21526d0b2bc1.png

Today's swingometer so far. The GFS ens are becoming less bullish about deepening that Azores low as it heads to us. A few things of note:

- A few members seem to not really develop a low of note this weekend
- A stronger signal for a rise in SLP over Spain seems to be emerging again could introduce much milder air later.
- A stormy weekend still seems to be favoured though its becoming less clear how the weekend will shape up.

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Looking ahead , I think it’s all down to whether the pattern is edged further east and se .

Theres some decent upstream amplification but the models are reluctant to get the UK on the cold side of the jet , or it takes an age to get there.

The PV is unlikely to re-organize and it’s looking very messy with small wedges of higher pressure and shortwave energy flying all over the place .

Its the sort of pattern that can flip to a colder outlook equally the UK might stay in generally more average conditions or milder if low pressure gets stuck to the west.

 

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Some stormy weather could be fairly widespread in scope, is gaining traction this weekend for low presssure to rapidly deepen nearby Bay of Biscay. Good if you like that sort of thing I suppose..

B3C19D83-3EDF-495C-ADF2-C61D91715435.thumb.gif.b23ba6c214b684da1ca9434e4a057aa3.gif5183EA1D-6624-4FB9-AEF5-254A77010F5D.thumb.png.13abe34f51023d840981acc98d0a1ec3.png

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Enjoyed the late snow. Not so much the wind chill. But it was impressive to behold.

 

We now appear to be in a period of weather that does not interest me. Until we start hitting temps in the 18C plus range towards April, I prefer the snow and cold to wind and rain, like many on here. But when will we record an 18C? I would definitely be hoping to achieve this in March here in Coventry, but not sure this year.

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IF the GFS 06Z OP verified, a very wet theme for south western parts:

240-777UK.GIF?05-6

6 inches of rain over the moors in the next ten days - 3-4 inches widely in Devon, Cornwall and South Wales on top of the huge recent volume of melted snow.

Flooding issues ?

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UKMO has a very nasty low at D5 eyeing up the southern UK

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

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Yesterday's 00Z ECM clusters hinted at a Greenland High - today the clusters are more mobile with any blocking more likely to be too far NW or out east (which could actually promote warmer weather to the UK if an E Europe block rather than NE). So no clear patterns emerging except the probably of a mobile period of weather.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018030500_276.

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Posted (edited)

An  (un)happy mothers day potentially for some

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

GFS not quite as bad and the strongest winds stay over North West of France

gfs-0-144.png?12

Edited by karlos1983

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yesterday's 00Z ECM clusters hinted at a Greenland High - today the clusters are more mobile with any blocking more likely to be too far NW or out east (which could actually promote warmer weather to the UK if an E Europe block rather than NE). So no clear patterns emerging except the probably of a mobile period of weather.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018030500_276.

Hi MWB - not sure mobile is the appropriate term here?  For UK i'd define mobile as a strong west to east flow with a strong jet over/near the uk with lows exiting the Eastern seaboard and being driven into the Uk/Scandinavia at a good rate of knots.  Looking at the 0z ECMWF it looks to me that the jet is still a long way south of the UK and we have lows meandering aimlessly around the Atlantic/nw Europe.  The clusters i feel are showing some ideas of where the main core(s) of the low sets up home?  Admittedly - the outcome will be same - very wet, probably windy with an even chance of it being cold to average in temps.:)

Edited by swebby

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UKMO pretty grim for Sunday. GFS although grim too, does keep the strongest winds in France as Karlos says above.

Of more interest is the mighty GEM. That potentially a more white than wet and windy Mother’s Day. Just one of many options on table for weekend.

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ICON 12z gives a mild day on Saturday for the south quite wet for most but gradually becoming drier in the southwest further north temps are around mid-single figures with parts of Scotland still at or below zero

12_120_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.5cef6fe5e5dd0e14544e60216d142ca0.png12_120_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.e5351504384ebcaa74fa1fa7f354e766.png

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Still some uncertainty with the weekend low .

In terms of depth and whether any snow will fall on its northern flank.

Looking forward its a case of whether the pattern gets sufficiently se to get the UK on the cold side of the jet.

If the UKMO follows a similar evolution to the GFS then that’s likely to provide the colder solution as there’s a better clearance of upstream energy attached to the low over the UK and that’s likely to swing ne further east .

Certainly wouldn’t rule out a northerly nw flow next week if we do see pressure build to the nw.

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19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ICON 12z gives a mild day on Saturday for the south quite wet for most but gradually becoming drier in the southwest further north temps are around mid-single figures with parts of Scotland still at or below zero

12_120_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.5cef6fe5e5dd0e14544e60216d142ca0.png12_120_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.e5351504384ebcaa74fa1fa7f354e766.png

Always the bearer of good news. :laugh:

Winter in Scotland and spring like temperatures in Southern England although doubt it’ll last. I really can’t see any chance of ‘warmth’ for the foreseeable. Atmosphere has been shaken like a snow globe...

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Looks pretty rubbish to be honest. Certainly no real spring warmth on the cards yet, jet a long way south and we are generally on the colder side. No signs of anything settled either, so if cool rain is your thing, you are in luck.

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11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks pretty rubbish to be honest. Certainly no real spring warmth on the cards yet, jet a long way south and we are generally on the colder side. No signs of anything settled either, so if cool rain is your thing, you are in luck.

maybe taste of Spring warmth for the south

ukmaxtemp.png

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Yes I should have added that one in - as that low spins up from the south we may get a fleeting glimpse of some mild air before it all goes mammaries verticus once more :D

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